And I agree with you. IMO, I feel like when we've been rumored for trades for established players, the other team wants our top prospects or no deal. We've seen NYY and other teams make trades and not have to give up their top prospects. Hell, I remember the White Sox wouldn't even entertain a trade with us for Sales unless Bergman was included. I know you have to give some to get some but man it seems kinda ridiculous. I wanted Archer for a long time but Tampa Bay wants the farm.
Tampa organization is tough in trades. They are usually more willing to give up great players, but they want some great prospects.
I'd rather never see Brady Rodgers again. Paulino absolutely belongs in the bullpen. I'd be interested in Musgrove getting another shot, but hard to imagine him not taking on a permanent bullpen role with the success he had there.
Two of them do, actually - Keuchel & McCullers, who have struggled the past two years to stay healthy. The Astros have Verlander, the only known commodity on their staff (and even he has some questions). Keuchel's great, if healthy. McCullers, even when healthy, struggles to pitch deep. So, too, does CHARLIEMORTON!. McHugh is a serviceable innings-eater - but not good, by any means. The team is right to be dubious with Peacock. If all healthy, they have two legitimate aces and two guys with great stuff who are max 5-inning guys. As is, that's difficult to sustain, harder when you mix in questionable health. I think starting pitching is far and away the team's greatest need/concern.
I think you’re underselling the Non-Verlander Guys (and possibly overselling Verlander). In terms of overall value McCullers is one of the best pitchers in the league. Yes, he has injury history and yes he doesn’t usually go deep, but when he does pitch he is excellent; he was worth 3 fWAR last season and is projected for the same this year. That’s a #2 starter for most teams and at 24 years old he’s definitely a guy you want as one of your 5 SP. Keuchel has 2 200+ inning seasons on his resume; hell, he pitched 168 in 2016. Assuming there isn’t a known injury that projects to affect him, any team would love to have him as their ace. Morton is basically an older McCullers; he was worth 3 fWAR last season and projects for 2.7 this year. He is a solid #3 on virtually any team. Prior to 2017 McHugh posted 3 consecutive 3+ fWAR seasons which put him in some very elite company. So long as his injury is fully healed he is a fantastic MoR SP. labeling him as just a “serviceable innings eater” strikes me as silly. I do agree that Peacock isn’t nearly as reliable given he had one breakout season where he only started 21 games. Verlander was great as an Astro but he had a bad first half in 2017 and his age is now fully working against him. He could implode at any moment. But those 5 guys are all excellent. I agree there are risks, which is why Houston needs to ensure their long relievers (Peacock, Musgrove) and AAA guys (Martes, Paulino, Armenteros, Rodgers, etc.) are high quality. But Houston as it stands projects for 4th best starting pitching in MLB (2nd in AL). The need arises when looking ahead to 2019, assuming Martes and Whitley won’t be established ToR guys by then.
This. No reason to worry about 5-inning guys. Astros are going to have to cycle bullpen pitchers and maybe chew up a few low leverage relievers. Those guys won't be on playoff rosters though.
In terms of building a team for 2018, you're ok with your 3rd best pitcher being oft-injured and virtually incapable of pitching past the 5th inning?... He has two current and consecutive seasons cut short by multiple DL trips. Why do you think 200+ IP seasons in '15 and (especially) '14 are more relevant? Or relevant at all? Cool; I'll use your own breakdown of McCullers then: Yes, he has injury history and yes he doesn’t usually go deep. That's your fourth starter - when he's healthy. McHugh's ERA+ in his last two full seasons was 100 & 90. Last year, 112 but in only 12 starts. My gut tells me a full season would have looked like.... 90-100. He's a a league-average pitcher. Good to have - but you upgrade Collin McHugh, if you can. I mentioned Verlander having some questions - but given health is one of the biggest issues facing this staff, he's made at least 30 starts in 11 of his last 12 seasons. So while I'm not expecting the Verlander we got last year, I think it's a safe bet he'll take the mound every fifth day 30+ times (understanding, especially given his age, that there are no guarantees). Hard to have the same confidence in the other starters. Who's forecasting them to be that good? I wouldn't even necessarily dispute that as my issue isn't quality but quantity. They're all capable pitchers; capable pitchers who have a long history of injury (Keuchel, McCullers, Morton), prime candidates for regression (Peacock) or concerns about continued regression (McHugh).[/QUOTE]
I don’t think we necessarily disagree on the problems, just on how severe they are and what the best solution is. The “guaranteed to pitch 200+ innings of <3.5 era” group of pitchers is pretty small. I’m not sure replacing McCullers/Keuchel/McHugh/Morton (all 3+ fWAR guys with varying durability concerns) with Cole (injured in ‘16), Darvish (MAJOR injury history), Arrieta (coming off a mediocre year, history of varying results) is the answer when considering the cost, especially when they’ve got elite prospects (Martes, Whitley) and solid depth (Paulino, Musgrove, Armenteros, etc.) in the minors who can mitigate the existing risk. If your issue is quantity, are you suggesting a rotation larger than 5? Otherwise you’re not solving anything by replacing one of the top 5 SP with another that carries similar risk.
Just looking at innings pitched from starters and spot starters the Astros won it all without a single pitcher giving them 200 innings. Only 15 pitchers pitched 200 or more innings in baseball. The Astros 2018 staff was riddled with DL trips. Innings leaders Fiers 153 Morton 146 Keuchel 145 Peacock 145 McCullers 118 Musgrove 107 (he had 15 starts 3QS) McHugh 63 Martes 54 (4 starts) Verlander 34 Paulino 29 (6 starts) In 2018 Replace Fiers 153 with Verlander and you get 180 innings from you "old ace" Put Keuchel down for 165 that will be plenty of starts McHugh should be back for a full season he can eat up at least 150 Morton can get another 140 McCullers should be on a pitch count, he's still young let him get 140 if he can stay healthy Peacock, Musgrove, Martes and other young arms can fill the gaps and be long relief. Hopefully Devo can get below the 80 innings pitched in relief for 2017 so his stuff will be sharp in October. Every staff has concerns but at least the high end quality is there and the depth is pretty solid. Just get the other catcher/DH and left out of the pin.
Lets be reasonable here guys. The Astros rotation is excellent as is. Is it the best? Maybe not. Is it enough of a starting place for a potential championship winning team? Heck yes. It's better than the group they had last year and that team went on to win the WS. A lot could certainly go wrong. But as constructed the Astros are going to be in a lot of games even just based on their offense.
While it would help the rotation, I think it helps the pen more. McHugh could really soak up a lot of innings as a multi-inning reliever. I'm guessing Astros want to pitch guys less in the regular season that will pitch a lot in the postseason.
McHugh would likely be traded. There’s already seven capable right handers in the pen: Giles, Devo, Harris, Smith, Rondon, Musgrove & Peacock. Musgrove & Peacock can be decent spot starters and go multiple innings on the good or bad side of blow outs when you save the situational matchup guys. Plus there’s Martes, Paulino, Feliz & Hoyt in Triple A and they are all really AAAA players at this point who can still develop and earn a future roster spot. Sipp has a guaranteed deal and Astros may sign another LH reliever and make him a trade/waiver candidate.
John Morosi said on MLB Network that in addition to looking at trading for Cole or signing Darvish, the Astros are also looking into trading for Danny Duffy.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/maybe-super-teams-are-ruining-the-off-season/ Nice little article that basically says that the Astros, Dodgers, Nationals, and Indians are so good, that there isn't a driving pressure to sign free agents to long term contracts for a lot of teams.
I agree with most of that article. Teams have figured out that: 9 figure deals for aging players are a typically a bad value. Playing in the middle is just delaying the inevitable; if you are not a division favorite, you should be rebuilding. (That said, I totally understand why the Angels are going all in; Trout and now Ohtani changes their calculus.) Not only does fewer buyers drive down the price of free agents, but it adds to the supply of players, as those would-be buyers are now sellers offering their good players for trade; that further drives down free agent prices. The reality is that there are only about 10 teams (NY, Boston, Cleveland, Houston, Angels, Nationals, Cubs, Cards, Giants, and Dodgers) who should be looking to add quality veteran players. It would serve the other 20 teams to either stand pat while their young players develop (Brewers, White Sox, As, Braves, Phillies, Padres) or to sell off and rebuild (Orioles, Tigers, Royals, Rays, Rangers, Blue Jays, Reds, Marlins, Pirates). There are a few teams (Mariners, Twins, D Backs, Rockies, Mets) who have put themselves in limbo by taking half measures, and there’s arguments to be made for them to stay competitive, but I don’t think any of them should be taking on $100M contracts even if they have the payroll capacity. When you consider that the luxury tax is essentially serving as a salary cap preventing the Yankees, Giants, and Dodgers from taking on anymore big contracts, and taking out the Indians who appear to be playing it cheap, and there are really only 6 teams that should be in play for the guys who want $100M+. Interestingly, there are exactly 6 guys I feel might be worth $100M (Darvish, Martinez, Arrieta, Hosmer, Moustakas, and Cain).
