I wouldn't call guys that played in 2017 on the big league team as "extras". Astros should be looking at trading lower level guys that aren't needed soon.
Honestly, I'd rather give the ABs to Fisher/Marisnick than pay 20mm for CarGo. If it's a 1 year deal...okay. I guess it all depends on the price, but I'd walk at anything over 2y/20mm. How many times has an injury-riddled player bounced back at 32? I just don't see it happening. CarGo was one helluva player when we were tanking, but signing him in 2018 and beyond seems so unnecessary given where we are as an organization. That said, in Luhnow I trust.
Seems like a good gamble at a reasonable rate. If they can get him to hit .270-.280 range with 25-30 homers that would be great as a LF/DH addition.
While I trust Fisher, Kemp, Marisnick and Moran as solid depth pieces on this team, I agree that a vet like CarGo gives us versatility to go after trade pieces that could make a huge impact. We have to ask the question: will we get value from our AAA+ players given our current depth, or is it time to sell? I'm more inclined to keep our pitching depth given the proclivity of pitchers to need rest. I do think players like Reed and White are wasted value here.
Even if Houston traded all of those guys (which would be extremely unlikely), they’d still have plenty of quality depth in AAA: C Stubbs, Fedorowicz IF Reed, White, Singleton, Kemp, Davis OF Kemmer, Ferguson SP Rodgers, Armenteros, Deetz, Thornton, Hauschild, Emanuel, Sneed RP Hoyt, Gustave, Guduan, McCurry, Dorris, Ramsay, Thome, Nunn And that’s without adding any more veterans on minor league deals (guys like Fedorowicz and Brignac) or promoting any guys from AA who might be ready (Tucker, Martin, etc.).
Those guys are a likely better than your listed depth except for White, Davis, Rodgers, and Armenteros. On White, Davis, Rodgers, and Armenteros, I expect them to be on Astros at some point this season as well. The extras may end up not being good, but MLB guys are going to get hurt. Moran may end up sucking, but his suck is likely better than having Singleton out there even in a short stretch. Why are you opposed to trading lower level guys instead of guys on the 40-man roster? Astros are going to need pitchers that have options. I'm less opposed to trading away the position player "extras" for the right deal, but I don't think those guys make or break a deal. If I'm the Marlins or the Rays, Fisher and Moran don't excite me as much as the lower level guys like Alvarez and Celestino.
when I saw the thread title from the main page, only seeing the first name and a couple of letters, I thought Carlos.go....mez!? NOOOOOOOOOOOO. I wanted this carlos back in 2016 not sure if I want him now.
He has the classic red flag Colorado splits, he's also older and coming off a bad year. I'm guessing those factors have driven his value so far down, he's being targeted as a platoon/depth starter with possible upside. If our offer is anything significant I would be pretty shocked
Agreed, and Carlos Gonzalez falling into our lap seems like a perfect opportunistic buy; where we risk a little bit of money (relatively speaking) on a short deal, and see if we catch lightning in a bottle. And we would be hoping that he is an upgrade over our 8th or 9th worst batter, it's not like we are hoping he carries our offense in the middle of our order. Best case scenario: the rich get richer. Worst case: he's cut (or traded for peanuts), we lose out on a 1 year investment, and he ended up wasting a spot on the 40 man. I'll take that risk/reward proposition. Sign him to a 1 year deal with a team option, with $8M guaranteed in 2018, and a $10M team option for 2018, with a $1M buyout (so he is at least guaranteed $9M). Get er done Murray, I mean Luhnow!
Most likely scenario is that he doesn't provide significantly more value than the Astros can scrap together on guys already on 40-man roster. While I think 9 million is about what I expect him to get (maybe a little more, but this market is weird), I don't think he's worth that to the Astros. Little deals add up and don't help teams like the Astros much as the Astros replacement level player is much better than the league replacement level player. Astros should be in "Go Big or Go Home" mode in regards to position players. Caveat: If Astros can get him for 4-5 million, that would be fine. I think he will do better than that.
Once the money gets to a certain point, it's more about what they can do than what they can't. He does hit RHP well over his career, even away from Coors (.269/.333/.456), and as you could imagine he destroyed them in Denver. That does seem to create a bit a of redundancy with Josh Reddick, but for the right price redundancy is OK. I pretty much agree with those numbers, although I think 4/5 million is a little low.
That's a fair assessment, I see where you are coming from. I think the second year team option would really appeal to our front office, and it provides us with flexibility in the event that he regresses back towards his career averages. In his down year last year, his OPS was .762, which is coincidentally the exact same as Reddick's career average. Now you can argue that CarGo is two years older, and perhaps last year was more of a negative trend as opposed to an outlier. But his 2015 and 2016 years were very good. I can also see the optimistic view that CarGo, with the protection he will get in this offensive lineup, could put up some surprisingly nice numbers. I am not necessarily arguing hard for us to sign CarGo, but I do think he can be a nice opportunity buy, and could provide some very solid value. I won't lose any sleep if he signs elsewhere.
Marisnick can only hit for one of Reddick, Cargo, Marwin, Fisher, Moran, and Tucker at a time. CarGo's highest RC+ away in last 4 years against LHPs is 55 with an OPS of 0.603. Astros need someone that can hit both RHPs and LHPs.
People are still not seeing the pull Altuve will have on this potential signing. Venezuela connection. I think it has a good chance of happening.
If Gattis plays everyday at DH/backup catcher he will hit over 30 bombs with a good OPS. We don't need Gonzalez. We need bullpen help. I don't see a weakness in the offense that requires 20 mil to fix. Marisnick is a great 4th outfielder too.
Career 115 wrc+ which takes into account how much he benefited from Coors. Always looked like a talented hitter but also past his prime. I remember everyone's concerns about Dexter Fowler leaving Coors and he has thrived. Splits for ex-Rockies players are usually less severe once the hitting environment between home and road games stabilizes. This looks like a hedge against Fisher not being ready to play every day yet or perhaps being used as trade bait. I could get behind a 1 or even 2 year deal to play LF. He should be league average offensively with a chance of a bounce-back season in which he is a little better than that.
I’m opposed to trading lower level guys for 2 primary reasons: 1. They hold less value as trade chips than Mlb ready guys. 2. They will be needed once the current core become too old/expensive. The guys slated for AAA who are Mlb ready hold a lot of value to other teams and have more overlap with the current core.
