If he was a free agent, he would get a deal similar to what he has left though without option being so in favor of Stanton. Sure, it would be worth probably 30MM AAV for a decade, but teams understand that he'll likely be worth about 40-50 million/year 1st three years and probably closer to 10-20 MM/year his last three years.
If this is the case, why would he, in 3 years, be offered $30MM/yr if he were to opt-out? If that's the valuation - that he's getting part of his payment for the next 3 years in the backend of the deal, it seems stupid to opt-out because the next team wouldn't pay him that.
I'm aware it would jeopardize the Astros chances of locking their core, but I'd go for Stanton. The FA class for next year is gonna be huge and will probably tilt the scales to whichever team benefits the most from it (most likely the Yankees). You take Stanton away from the Yankees or Dodgers while actually improving your already dangerous lineup. I trust Luhnow if he passes him up but am hoping it doesn't bite them back in the playoffs next year. But I guess it's better if it bites them in the playoffs next year than years down the line with the core? I don't envy Luhnow's position in this. lol
Id rather he go to the Dodgers than a AL playoff contender. But if we are thinking 2018 WS, then we better hope we dont have to face the Stanton Dodgers. Or, we better have more and better upgrades ahead than what ive seen tossed around so far.
This honestly feels like a situation where whoever loses out on Stanton becomes a winner. We've seen big boppers like him have dramatic drop offs. Ryan Howard once hit 50 too. This past season was a direct result of a juiced ball. I'll be surprised if he doesn't regress next year. Plus we are more focused on power with exceptional contact. Doesn't Stanton strike out quite a bit?
In the long run, that may turn out to be true. But in the next 3-4 years, or longer, this guy is going to help his team win. And much beyond 3-4 years, our future has its own questions. In addition, it is common place to sacrifice in some fashion to be better. We chose to be terrible for 3-4 years in order to be good again. Someone will be willing to be better now and sacrifice down the road. We did this ourselves in 2004-05. I think the days of a team sustaining dominance for long periods of time may be over. So instead, you try for a few years of it.
People here routinely were telling us all season that there was a 0% chance we could beat the greatest-team-ever Dodgers this season too.
