Santana is a much better hitter than Gattis and he is a switch hitter. In terms of overall value, Gattis is a fringe regular; Santana is a borderline star. With the QO attached I’m not sure he’s a good fit for Houston but otherwise he’s a great fit. Really Houston should look into any good left handed bat on the market: Santana, Duda, Hosmer, Alonso, Lind, Morrison, Walker, Cabrera, Dyson, Granderson, Saunders, Jay, Bruce, Gonzalez...between that many legit lefty bats, there is bound to be a match.
Santana has an OPS+ of 113 over the last 3 years and 121 for his career. Gattis has an OPS+ of 113 over the last 3 years and 114 for his career. To claim Santana is a much better hitter than Gattis is ridiculous. Santana is not a borderline star. He is a solid 1B/DH, but he's going to be 32 next year.
Over your cherrypicked 3 year timeline, Santana is 10th in fWAR among 1B (between Miguel Cabrera and Chris Davis) and 63rd overall among position players. 3 WAR/yr is a generally accepted threshold for a star player and he’s right there. OPS+ is a flawed metric to begin with (wRC+ is a better measure), but especially when comparing full time players to part time players. Gattis has been used selectively over the last 3 seasons, whereas Santana has played virtually everyday. Santana is a much better hitter because not only does he hit everyday (not just against pitchers susceptible to his skill set) but he still walks a TON more while striking out a LOT less and hitting for the same power as Gattis.
3 years is cherry picking? That is like the opposite of cherry picking provided you want to eliminate recency bias and fluke years impacting stats too much. Granted, it isn't used much on CF as most here seem to love recency bias and cherry picking fluke data (there are times to use smaller samples, but that is usually for very peripheral stats, injuries, drop in velocity). That said. Santana has easily been a better hitter. He doesn't play catcher, was given a qualifying offer, and likely will cost more than the Astros are willing to pay.
Cherry picked? The last 3 years is a common metric and I provided career. 3 WAR is not a star, 5 is. Being 10th among 1B isn't that impressive and certainly not a star, especially given he has been healthy and others haven't. Gattis has been a part-time player because of his defense, not because he can't hit certain players. His splits between LHP & RHP are pretty small. As for having the same power, since Gattis has come into the league he has 114 HR and Santana has 123. Santana has 750 more ABs. Santana does walk more, which is why he is the better hitter, but it isn't some massive difference. How much do you value having Santana's glove at 1B and Gurriel at DH over Gurriel at 1B and Gattis at DH?
I thought the same thing.... it's not like quality catchers are a dime a dozen. If his defense is "good" and his bat is even better........ I mean, I get that he might not translate to MLB - but that sounds like a LOT of potential.
It is always hard to say. Gattis is a FB hitter, but don't most players struggle with high velocity? As far as pitch type, he has been terrible at curves and splitters for his career, but the curve number is really hurt by the first 2 years of his career where he was Pedro Cerrano against them (.325 OPS in 2013 & .294 OPS in 2014). He's been more playable against them as an Astro. Before I knew what Yuli could do, I really would have wanted Carlos Santana (I really wanted EE), but now I feel more comfortable about 1B/DH roles assuming Gattis is going to be the primary DH instead of the regular backup at catcher.
When Gattis DHs, he should spend his time in between ABs in the bullpen catching a simulated game. Or maybe he just puts on & takes off the gear every inning. Not sure Centeno/Stassi/New Guy are legitimate internal options for backup catcher. May be something they look at this offseason.
Absolutely. I think Centeno or Stassi (preferably Stassi) would be a competent backup catcher, but if McCann gets hurt, ugh on having either being the regular. And having Gattis ready in case Stassi ends up sucking is a nice thing to have.
I think Gattis struggles more than normal against high velocity. He has to start early to catch up to it, and he has no chance at breaking balls/offspeed stuff if he guesses wrong. Granted, this is just eyeball test and I could be influenced by a few events that he looked bad and then had confirmation bias seeing him against pitchers with high heat after that.
Obviously defining a “star” is an entirely subjective task. I would argue that a guy who projects to be the 50-70th most valuable position player next season is a star, since it would mean that he’d be the 2nd or 3rd best player on most teams. Isolating HR is not an effective way to argue that Santana is not a much better hitter than Gattis. Their slugging % is extremely close, while Santana strikes out a lot less and walks a lot more. Again, we are talking about a subjective difference, but my word that you took issue with was “much”, not “massive”. It’s all about value. Having Gurriel and Marwin available to man 1B reduces the need for Santana, and the attached QO probably means he’s not an option for Houston. But as the best available left handed bat, he is one of a small group of somewhat affordable free agents who would make a meaningful improvement to Houston’s roster.
Definitely subjective, but Josh Reddick meets your 3 WAR threshold and I wouldn't think of him as a star. Gurriel had a similar offensive season (though in a different way) and I don't see him as a star. Santana is a good player and would be an improvement, but not like somebody who could play LF or a closer. Keith Law likes him (ranked 5th on his FA list), but he also ranks Wade Davis #33 behind David Hernandez, Juan Nicasio, Clayton Richard, and several others, so it isn't like I'd trust his evaluations.
I'm sort of glad that most of the Gold Glove winners are younger players and ones known for defense as opposed to the more common baseball stars who used to always win the awards (looking at you Derek Jeter). I know most of the Astros are more above average on defense than great, but I hoped for at least 1 Astros to win a glove. Spoiler: 2017 Gold Glove Winners National League C: Tucker Barnhart, Reds (1st Gold Glove) 1B: Paul Goldschmidt, D-backs (3rd Gold Glove) 2B: DJ LeMahieu, Rockies (2nd Gold Glove) 3B: Nolan Arenado, Rockies (5th Gold Glove) SS: Brandon Crawford, Giants (3rd Gold Glove) LF: Marcell Ozuna, Marlins (1st Gold Glove) CF: Ender Inciarte, Braves (2nd Gold Glove) RF: Jason Heyward, Cubs (5th Gold Glove) P: Zack Greinke, D-backs (4th Gold Glove) American League C: Martin Maldonado, Angels (1st Gold Glove) 1B: Eric Hosmer, Royals (4th Gold Glove) 2B: Brian Dozier, Twins (1st Gold Glove) 3B: Evan Longoria, Rays (3rd Gold Glove) SS: Andrelton Simmons, Angels (3rd Gold Glove) LF: Alex Gordon, Royals (5th Gold Glove) CF: Byron Buxton, Twins (1st Gold Glove) RF: Mookie Betts, Red Sox (2nd Gold Glove) P: Marcus Stroman, Blue Jays (1st Gold Glove) http://m.mlb.com/news/article/260898842/john-lackey-reportedly-plans-to-pitch-in-2018/
Hosmer has been a sub-par defensive 1st baseman for years, he doesn't lead in TZR for 1B, Fielding %, or range factor. He has a runs saved above average in the negative in every variance of the statistic.
I don't trust defensive stats for 1B. They don't really account for the ability to position on the bag, stretch, or get balls out of the dirt. Those are important factors for a 1B. IDK who the best defensive 1B in the AL is, other than it isn't Yuli Gurriel.
