Baseball America: Texas League Top 20 Prospects Spoiler 2. Kyle Tucker 12. Rogelio Armenteros 13. J.D. Davis
Weird the BA top 20 lists aren't public this year. Usually the list itself is public with the individual write-ups being behind the paywall. Armenteros is deservedly getting some national attention after the season he put up.
My end of season positional wrap up: Catcher: Jake Rogers emerged as clearly the best prospect at this position before being traded. Now that he's gone, Garrett Stubbs once again takes the lead. Unfortunately, he's coming off of a pretty bad season, and is merely a C grade prospect with severe power limitations and durability concerns. Chuckie Robinson, Jamie Ritchie, Mike Papierski, and Anthony Hermelyn all are worth tracking next season, but none of them profile as future major leaguers at this time. Max Stassi had a redemption season and put himself in the conversation for a big league spot next season, but he's out of options and no longer a prospect. With Brian McCann and Evan Gattis aging and approaching free agency, Houston has a big need here, and the pickings look slim for now. If Abraham Toro moves to catcher full time, he probably becomes the most exciting catching prospect in Houstons farm. Overall farm grade D, but with upside. 1B/DH: Bleedover from 3B (Moran, Davis) makes this a fairly deep position. AJ Reed by most accounts had a disappointing season, but he hit 34 HR and had an 883 ops in AAA; he's still an elite 1B prospect until he gets 200 more ABs in the majors. Troy Sieber emerged as one to track after putting up good production in his 1st full season. Jake Adams was a disappointment but his 70 grade power will keep him on the radar. Roman Garcia had a nice debut. With Yuli Gurriel locked up for another 4 years and Tyler White in the mix, 1B should be more than fine for the foreseeable future. Overall farm grade B+. 2B: Tony Kemp had another fine AAA season but is no longer a prospect, moreso just a grade 45 guy waiting for a big league opportunity. Ryne Birk had a good season, reaching AA in his 1st full year. Josh Rojas was a surprising prospect to come out of the draft; he was immediately placed in full season A ball and more than held his own. There are several middle infield prospects lower in the system that may end up at 2B but are all listed as SS for now. There are no elite prospects at this position (unless 2017 2nd rd pick JJ Matijevic ends up meeting his offensive ceiling AND playing 2B), which luckily is not a concern as long as Jose Altuve is in Houston. Overall farm grade C. SS: There were no elite (or maybe even "good") SS prospects in the upper levels of Houstons system this year. Luckily it's a non-issue due to the presence of Carlos Correa, Marwin Gonzalez, and Alex Bregman. And there are some high upside prospects in the lower levels in Freudis Nova, Yorbin Cueta, Jonathan Arauz, and MiguelAngel Sierra. But the full season teams were a wasteland manned by non-prospects like Arturo Michelena and Antonio Nunez. Anibal Sierra, a big money Cuban signee, was a massive disappointment, as was Kristian Trompiz, who showed lots of promise in 2015. I am interested in Jack Mayfield; although he is an older prospect, he's been a productive hitter and defender. He managed 20 HR and 10 SB across AA and AAA this season. I wouldn't mind seeing him as the everyday SS in Fresno next year. But still, Houston will need their younger prospects to emerge to avoid this being a big hole down the road. Overall farm grade: C+. 3B: Bregman plus recent farm graduates White, Colin Moran, and JD Davis paint a very optimistic long term outlook. Nick Tanielu, an underrated player who I pegged as a potential breakout candidate, lost his year to injury; he'll play in the AFL to regain some ABs and look to get back in the mix in 2018. If Toro doesn't move to catcher he will still be a very good prospect to watch at 3B; 2017 appeared to be a massive breakout for him. Wander Franco is a grade 45 guy to watch. 2nd rd draft pick Joe Perez should provide a big boost next season when he returns from injury. Overall farm grade: B+ (includes Moran/Davis). OF: Despite trading the redeemed Daz Cameron and Teoscar Hernandez and graduating Derek Fisher, who emerged as an elite prospect, the OF picture is far from bleak. The group is led by Kyle Tucker, who is generally considered an MLB Top 10 prospect. Then there's Yordan Alvarez, who emerged as a legit Top 100 guy and potential future elite major league bat; he'll have to prove he can handle the outfield lest he be relegated to DH/1B where his value would be diminished. Beyond those 2 there is a handful of high grade 45 prospects in Jason Martin (who took the next step and will likely start next season in AAA), Myles Straw (plus CF defense and 70 grade speed), Matijevic (2017 2nd rd pick who Houston hopes can play 2B but may end up in left), Ramon Laureano (a huge disappointment in 2017 who still has all the tools from his 2016 breakout--he had 11 HR and 24 SB in AA this season), Gilberto Celestino (who held his own in rookie ball at 18), and others (Ronnie Dawson, Drew Ferguson, Jon Kemmer, Carmen Benedetti, Stephen Wrenn, Luis Payano). Houstons farm indeed features both elite top end talent and quality depth in the outfield. Overall farm grade A+. Overall: From a position player perspective, the Astros still have a very healthy, above-average farm. Led by Tucker and Alvarez, they have both elite prospects and depth, and it looks like they'll be able to continue to graduate quality players each year; next year should see Tucker, Stubbs, Martin, and Laureano all reach the majors. But for the 1st time in several years, there are organizational weaknesses that will need to be addressed in order to avoid an eventual impact at the big league level. Namely, the lack of an elite catching prospect and a thin middle infield in the upper levels. But for now, it's still all good. Overall farm grade B-.
I hope they are neither needed by summer 2018 nor get that little upper minors seasoning. For Whitley in particular, something would have gone seriously wrong if he's starting for the Astros in June/July. I'm not sure if he's even on the SP depth chart yet, much less in the top 10 going into next year. DK, Verlander, McCullers, McHugh, Morton, Peacock, Musgrove, Martes, (heavenforbid) Fiers, Brady Rodgers.
Not about needed. If they are truly uber prospects, they will force their way onto the team. For Tucker, he will have as much or more time in upper minors than Correa, Springer, Bregman, and Reed by July. For Whitley, hard to imagine Astros don't want him in the 2018 playoffs. Even if it is limited, Astros will want to get some MLB seasoning beforehand.
I agree about Tucker; if he has a good year next season he will be in the majors by August; he can play any OF position so if any of 4 OF get hurt (or if the LF doesn't perform) he will be the likely call up. I disagree about Whitley, he's too young to force his way to the majors no matter how good he is. There's certainly a path; if he dominates AND there is a serious injury to a key pitcher, then he will get the call. If he dominates but the major league pitching staff doesn't have a glaring need for him, he will be held back. Houston has their starting pitching depth in place for next season: Keuchel Verlander McCullers McHugh Morton Martes Peacock Armenteros Paulino Rodgers That's 10 guys and assumes they trade Fiers and leave Musgrove in the pen.
Pitchers get hurt so your AND is not needed. There will be opportunity for Whitley provided Whitley remains as high a prospect as he is. Sure, if he struggles in minors, Paulino and Rodgers will remain ahead of him. Astros typically don't hold dominant pitching prospects up as pitchers get hurt. No reason to waste innings on AA or AAA. I doubt minor league batting will cause him problems.
I think Yordan profiles as the 1B of the future. He'll have a gargantuan reach to corral errant throws. Although I have not videos of his defense in OF, his body type just strikes me as one ill-suited to being very mobile for long. Then again, Aaron Judge is actively disproving this point, albeit with limited speed and probably the strongest arm in the majors.
I can't imagine the team not keeping Stassi. Either they will trade one of McCann/Gattis or Gattis will go back to being the regular DH and they will carry 3 catchers.
I like Stassi and if I were Luhnow I'd pencil in Gattis as the DH and have Stassi be McCann's backup. But I'd also gauge interest in him; if a team wanted to give up a good lotto (like the kind Houston has targeted when acquiring Paulino/Chavez/Martes/Alvarez), Id be willing to trade him. But I agree they should definitely not let him go for nothing.
Rule 5 primer: https://whattheheckbobby.blogspot.com/2017/09/2017-rule-5-draft-primer-and-eligible.html?m=1 This year is a lot less risky than the last few. Here's how I'd break it down: Medium risk: Deetz McCurry Laureano Martin Low risk: Kemmer Comer Bostick James Thompson E Hernandez I expect the 4 medium risk guys to be protected, if only because Houston has 5 pending free agents (Beltran, Maybin, Gregerson, Clippard, Liriano), and some dead weight (Fiers, Sipp, P Tucker), and I don't expect them to be in the market for more than 1-2 outside additions. All in all I will be very surprised if the Astros lose any players to the Rule 5 this year. One note not picked up on wthb, Cionel Perez I believe is also eligible due to the snafu with his physical and having his contract voided. I expect he will be protected, but if not he would almost certainly be picked (if he is in fact Rule 5 eligible).
