McHugh hasn't proven that he's far/away better at this point than Peacock or Morton is. Still plenty of season left to figure it out.
I said: DK, Peacock and McHugh in that order. So no, I dont think McHugh is better than Peacock. And only slightly preferred over Morton. Agree 5 weeks from now, the story could be quite different.
My bad. I figured you had LMJ as #2. McHugh has relied more on the slider, which has surprised some hitters since he came back. I still think he's only as good as his curveball, which he tends to lose the feel for at times.
I dont know where to put LMJ, or Fiers for that matter. Both suffer from inconsistency. And while LMJ's stuff is far superior to Fiers, Bad LMJ is just as ineffective as bad Fiers. So for now, I dont want either of those two in my playoff picture.
Eh... Peacock for some reason drops off after the 3rd. So one time through the rotation then pull him regardless how dominant those first 3 innings are. ERA 1-3 innings 1.20 ERA 4-6 innings 5.79 https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=peacobr01&year=2017&t=p Sample size too small for McHugh.
There are plenty of overreaction police who takes themselves far too seriously IMO. If someone is watching a game and watches a particular player screw up or fail in big moment and says, " XXXX player sucks" - we don't need the overreaction police to get on them about how good that player has been... it's voicing frustration with a particular play while watching the game. That should be implicit.
Assuming all are healthy and pitching to their abilities, Fiers couldn't possibly be in the playoff rotation. I imagine they'll go with Keuchel, LMJ, McHugh, & Morton...with Fiers and Peacock in the pen. By the way...how awesome is it that Musgrove has found his groove in the pen. If this is what he is, I feel much better about the pen now than a month ago. When Harris comes back, Devo and Gregerson can move into lower leverage roles until they get their grooves back.
Assuming full health, I think there's a good chance Fiers doesn't make the ALDS roster. They'll carry one additional bench player & three starters (DK, McHugh & LMJ). Bullpen will be Giles, Harris, Musgrove, Devo, Clippard, Liriano & Gregerson. And then my guess for the final 2 spots will be whomever they think will be most effective in relief out of Peacock, Morton, Martes and Fiers. (WIth my money on Peacock and Morton.)
Peacock is a lock to make the ALDS roster if he is healthy. There is also no guarantee that McHugh gets the #3 spot over Peacock and Morton for that matter. No guarantee Liriano makes it either, depends on how he pitches down the stretch.
BIG assumption. Really awesome! Just dont know yet whether to allow myself to believe it will last or not.
If LMJ isn't back, assume that puts either Peacock or Morton into the rotation (hard to say for sure). Either way, would Fiers or Martes get the last spot in the pen? Even that seems like a tough call.
Watching his pitch movement with the increased velocity makes me a serious believer, even with the sample size. The logic behind the improvement is sound, and is backed up by the eye test.
LMJ passed those tests for the 2 years before those first 3 months as well. So I'm not sure what you are saying.
And then he got hurt. Are you saying Musgrove is going to get hurt? When healthy, it seems like his stuff is translating much better to the bullpen, where he can throw with max effort, than it did as a starter. This has happened before...
I am primarily focused on who can help us in the playoffs this year. So in that context, I am skeptical LMJ can or will be one of those guys. Ditto for Musgrove.
Pretty sure its safe to say he's looked better in this role. Its also safe to say his FB is currently sitting at 95-97, vs. only 91-94 as a starter. Lastly, its not a stretch to say that his uptick in FB speed, while maintaining his solid breaking ball mixed with good strike zone tendencies, all translate to the bullpen very well. Sure... nobody should be declaring him to be Octavio Dotel 2.0 just yet (another former failed starter who found his true calling as an elite bullpen guy), but early results are indeed promising. Also, Devenski would be the perfect example of why not to get too excited over a bullpen pitcher's first few rounds through the league... but if Musgrove's results are sustainable, its coming at the perfect time for this bullpen, with Devenski's regression and Gregerson's inconsistency.
A 2.45 ERA in 6 innings of work is not very good.. And that doesn't include all the inherited runners he has let score. Liriano has been terrible, especially against the lefties he is supposed to be elite against. But you're right, rainbows and 10 game leads...
