In hindsight , we should have made moves to bolster sp during the offseason . We knew Dallas and lance were question marks going into the season . They've both had better than expected performance.
Everyone, including Dallas Keuchel, seems to have short-term memory loss... Since July 17, 2016, the Astros have added: Yuli Gurriel Alex Bregman Brian McCaan Josh Reddick Carlos Beltran Francis Martes Derek Fisher That's a year & pennies. If you want to use an arbitrary deadline to gripe that the Astros didn't improve the club, fine. But please don't pretend this team has been idle and done nothing. They've signed free agents, promoted top prospects and made trades. And are a significantly better team because of it. In fact, they're the best team in the AL despite their ace and 2nd-best player missing significant time; their #2 and 3rd-best player also missing time; and their #3 missing 3.5 months. And if those five can get/stay healthy, they are the odds-on favorite to win the American League. I've argued for weeks they needed some pitching and was disappointed they couldn't find a match. I also just spent 48 glorious hours in Cooperstown watching Jeff Bagwell get inducted into the baseball Hall of Fame and it made me wonder how ANY Astro fan could possibly advocate irresponsibly trading a top prospect for pitching - especially relief pitching. Just because a prospect is unproven & has an unpredictable future doesn't mean they lack value; in fact, given their age and cost, they have *tremendous* value, even if they ultimately fail to live up to their potential. This isn't the NBA; not every player can be an All-Star. Or even above-average. The Astros didn't lose 411 games over a four-year stretch so they could throw it all away on some (otherwise) random day in July to appease a bunch of fans with short-term memory loss. They've said all along that this was a long-play and they're smartly balancing short- and long-term priorities. Trust me, if Kyle Tucker & Forrest Whitley are as good as advertised; if Derek Fisher and Francis Martes can build on the promise they've shown, no one is going to care/remember that the team didn't deal for Tony F'wording Watson years ago, regardless of how this season plays out.
I can see one always making an argument to defend the franchise/front-office in their decisions... and it will probably always have some truth to it. I can also see one always criticizing every move the franchise/front-office makes (or doesn't make)... and it will probably always have some truth to it. I'd prefer the analysis that takes both sides into account. Yes, the Astros have added some key pieces over the last 2 years.... but so have all contending teams. Yes, the Astros have to be shrewd with their top prospects... but so did some of the contending teams as well, yet they still were able to acquire much needed pieces. Yes, the Astros have a huge lead and are the best regular season team in Astros history.... but the playoffs are a total crapshoot and as Luhnow said, even if you only increase your odds slightly, ultimate post-season success can still be worth it. Yes, the Astros are getting back Keuchel and McHugh... but there are still some durability/performance question marks that will only be answered after they've pitched a handful of games. Yes, Mike Fiers didn't continue to implode.... but there's a very real chance he will continue to implode. I'd venture most here don't remember who the best team in the NL was in 1998 (it wasn't the Astros). I'd also venture that most don't remember who had the best overall record in 2004 and 2005. These are all hallmark Astros-specific years, and yet all everybody here will remember was what happened in the playoffs, and who ultimately won. And that will remain the case for every city and every year they have a playoff system... if you lose your last game of year, its going to be a foot-note.
Regardless of how you look at it, it strikes me as far more likely than not that the Astros are going to have some serious needs to fill on their pitching staff in the very near future. Even if it was just for depth, I'll never understand how you look so unprepared to acquire better than a mediocre reliever late in the game. Keuchel's history makes it as likely - if not more - that he never returns to form than does. McCullers? Who knows if he can ever develop into a durable starter. Fiers is wildly inconsistent and the remainder of our starters are fragile. Martes has show promise, but still looks at least a couple of years from being a reliable starter. If we're going to be a consistent playoff team, pitching will be the key and we'll have to go get some sometime.
Luhnow didn't get very specific, but he said there were two deals 90% done, both fell through late. He said other deals, teams wanted too much. Seems Fisher was the breaking point. Luhnow is very high on him and expects his contribution for this year and years to come.
Very well said. I am disappointed as well that we couldn't get another hammer out of the bullpen but paying a blue chip prospect for a reliever or even a closer to me is just not smart. What if that same prospect + 1 or 2 more high potential prospects could net you an ace in a future trade? To me that is much better value than trading a blue chipper for a closer/reliever. I haven't followed the pitching targets that were out there but most seemed a bit risky. Some were coming off of injuries, some weren't even traded at all so who knows how serious that team was in trading them. Doesn't seem like many #2 or better type starters got traded except for Gray and Darvish. I wouldn't touch Darvish with a ten foot pole as he is a headcase IMO. Gray would have been a good get but not sure if Luhnow had some reservations for some reason. With all this said, I just have to trust Luhnow knows what he is doing considering the offseason he had and the ability to identify talent. I know Peacock isn't all his doing but Luhnow could have easily DFA'ed him or traded him at some point but he did not. Same goes for players like Bregman and Fisher who are already showing massive potential (especially Bregman as of late). I will trust that Luhnow tried and was close on several deals but it just didn't work out in the end unfortunately.
He may be right... but at one point, he was very high on Jon Singleton as well. I don't think he was necessarily the breaking point from a future production standpoint.... but more that the Astros need production from him now moreso than any of the other prospects or call-ups. Beltran starting to hit well may change some of that.
Nah, didnt want to give up our untouchables... then trade deadline came and we had NEW untouchables.. Everyone said we were so good with Keuchel/McCullers/McHugh.. Well lets see if they are ever on the team at the same time...smh
Luhnow: Sounds like some people disappointed in house, yourself included. I'm sure you heard Dallas Keuchel echo that sentiment about disappointment. Your thoughts? I understand people are disappointed we didn't make any big moves at the deadline this year. I do want everyone to keep in mind we have a really good team. This team has a chance to be really special this year. We have an offense that is amazing, record setting, a good defense, good starting rotation & good reliever core. We've had some injuries which has stressed our team but the reality is, all the guys that got injured, all of our key guys including guys on the DL now, are expected back & expected to be healthy down the stretch & into the playoffs, should we be fortunate enough to get there. This team has a chance to be pretty special. Of course we look at ways to improve it. Even good teams can get better. We did that. We spent a lot of time over the last month looking at particular players that we thought we could bring in to improve this roster. We tried. We made some offers we thought were fair. We had some offers accepted that didn't end up getting done. There were some guys where the price was just too high. We used our best judgement every step of the way to make sure we were taking advantage of this opportunity while being responsible about the organization for the medium term. We did our job. We're disappointed. I understand the disappointment among the fans. Let's go out & finish the season, let's go out & have a great playoff run & see where it goes. When you heard that comment from Dallas, your initial reaction? I understand his disappointment. As I said on Monday, I'm disappointed too but I also want us all to keep recognizing how good, how special this team is AS IS. This is a really good team. We have the highest OPS in all of baseball. Our starters have the lowest ERA in the AL. Our relievers had to go into the rotation. We took a key piece in Peacock out & into the rotation to make up for Keuchel, McCullers, Morton, McHugh who all spent time on the injury list. They're all coming back. We got 2 of our MVP candidates, arguably 3 players in contention for MVP. 2 are on the DL right now. I know we're going through a rough patch right now but this is a really good team. I understand everyone would like to see it get even better. We tried. I understand the disappointment but the focus should be on winning as many games as possible, getting a good spot in the playoffs & winning in the playofs. That's what I'm focused on. Do you believe that a comment from a leader of a team like that could have a negative impact? I believe these guys want to win. They're competitors. One thing that makes Dallas great is he's a competitor & wants to win. We all have that inside of us or else we wouldn't be doing these jobs. As long as we channel that frustration, energy, excitement, enthusiasm towards winning on the field, we'll be fine. This team has really good chemistry. I'm not concerned about it. I was walking around last night before the game, after the game, they were disappointed they lost last night but preparing for tonight's game. Dallas is on the mound. I expect he'll come back & be the Dallas he was in the beginning of the year & we'll be fine. Let's keep winning games & put this behind us. That's the best approach & that's what our players think. You said a couple of deals were 90% done. When you say that, how close is that? It's a lot that goes into getting a deal done. As you could imagine, when players are changing hands from one organization to another, there's a lot of people that have to sign off on it. Even if you reach an agreement with the opposing side on what players are in the deal, there are still some hurdles to overcome. In the case of a couple deals that we had we thought were going to get done Monday morning, fell apart closer to the deadline. I'll leave it at that. They're complicated negotiations. I've been left at the altar before in year's past. It happens. It's frustrating. You move on. There's nothing you can do about it. We tried our best. There were some deals we walked away from because the price was too high. I guarantee you if I sat down with you for an hour & explained what was in the deal & what it would have taken, you would have probably agreed with me. Maybe not but you probably would have. The people counseling me gave me good advice & made the best decision for our organization. Price too high = high end prospects? Typically in trades, yes. The price is in players & I'm not talking just about prospects. I'm talking about players & players off our current Major League roster. We have to make a determination is a certain player more valuable for us in a playoff run & going through the playoffs this year vs. a player we're trying to acquire. That's the type of analysis we do. We got scouts involved, mathmeticians involved, a lot of different people with experience weighing in. Our best judgement was in certain cases...and some of these players didn't even transact so the price was too high for other teams as well & in cases where they did transact, our package wasn't enough. That's the reality. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. You don't know who a team likes in your system. They may like guys better in other systems. Nothing you can do to control that. Were one of those moves who's named rhymed with Dance Wynn? I can't get into specifics. I'm sure there will be writers & analysts who will talk about what was/wasn't done. We were foruntate this year that we focused on a select group of players, all pitchers, who we thought could improve our performance in the playoffs. Right now, our playoff rotation is like Keuchel, McCullers + Morton, McHugh, Fiers, Peacock all competing for that 3rd/4th spot. We had to have someone who was an upgrade over them or insurance if they got hurt. When you were looking, it was insurance, a safety net? No doubt about it. We always have to keep in the mind the roster we have, even when healthy, something could happen down the stretch. You can't assume they'll get hurt or stay healthy. Insurance is just that. Protecting yourself from something happen. There's a certain cost of insurance. In some cases, it was too high to pay. We also focused on relievers. There were some good relievers out there we thought could help us. Our relievers, people don't realize we have a good core of relievers. I've seen all the articles, the ERA has gone up. That's because our relief core has been stressed. They've had to go into the rotation, pitch a ton of innings because our starters haven't been getting through more than 4-5 innings. That stress comes at a cost. You end bringing up a lot of guys from AAA. You end up giving up runs you shouldn't be giving up. When you talk about a playoff situation, you're talking about a relief core of Devenski, Giles, Harris - guys that are experienced & good pitchers you'll use in really important situations. They'll get the outs they should get. I believe in those guys. We did look at ways to improve that group as well but didn't get it done.
Jim Crane said some moves shut down by owners. Can you confirm? I won't get into details. That's not what we should be doing. I want the fans to know we gave it a really strong effort. We used everything we could to try & get good deals done for the Astros. At the end of the day, we had some we thought we would complete but didn't get completed. Nobody gets blamed for that. Blame me if you want but we move on. Peter Gammons said Orioles front office said the offers for Britton was insulting. When you see someone say your offers were insulting, any response to that? No, of course I don't. We make good offers. These discussions don't just happen when you throw in an offer at the last minute & people laugh at it. The discussions we had were over the course of days & weeks. Players/names were exchanged. At no point did any GM tell me they thought anything we were offering was insulting. If that's the case, I don't know where Peter got it. So conjecture? I'll tell you this: I see all of the media reports & read some tweets, there's a lot of things reported that just aren't accurate. I don't know what their sources are or where they're getting it. I don't get involved trying to validate or verify what reporters say or don't say. I know what happened. There's a smart group of people on our side that know what happened & we're comfortable with the outcome based on the decisions we had to make. How much of it is posturing, in general? I'm sure there's some but quite a bit of people hear rumors & take it as fact. I don't know where they start. I don't know. I can't judge that. Some teams may leak info to take advantage but we don't do that. It doesn't really work anyways. Typically, it's between 2 GMs and that's when you get down to the nitty-gritty and where deals get done. Was Derek Fisher untouchable? Our fans will be excited to see why we're so excited about Derek Fisher. He has an incredible arsenal of weapons that will help us win a lot of games over the next 2 months. I expect he'll be playing quite a bit if we get to the postseason. He's a good player. He'll be with us for a long time. Yeah, we value him highly. There's a lot of other teams that value him highly. Time will tell on the decisions we made. He wasn't in every deal but a lot. The decision we made to keep him vs. move him for some of these other pieces, time will tell. He's a great player, great prospect & expect him to be an Astro for a long time. Opportunity to talk to Dallas? I saw him in the clubhouse 2 days ago. I probably won't visit him today because he'll be on the mound & hopefully be getting us a W. I'm sure we'll work it out. It's not causing any concern on my side. If he wants to talk to me, that's fine. I see him all the time. I'm sure we'll talk about it at some point but not a big issue for me. Fan passion. No question. I appreciate the fans' interest. I hope they keep coming to the park & keep having a special season. This team has won 69 games. We're in good shape. We have a good shot at making the playoffs & good shot at winning the World Series. I truly believe that. I believe we can win the World Series with the team as is today & we'll try and prove that.
I read this point somewhere else, and I think it's a strong point: Would you rather have, say, Sonny Gray minus..... Tucker and Whitley on July 31? Or Chris Archer minus Tucker and Whitley on November 30?
I have made this point also indirectly. Some teams fired off their cannons more than we did. Did they hit anything worthwhile? Who has depleted their gunpowder and who has their cannons still loaded, primed and ready? Its so easy to read only one side of the debate, what did teams get? How about, what did they give up and whats left in their store?
I don't know why Luhnow gets all this blame. He's just the messenger; he put all the trade offers into the machine, and the algorithm said no to all of them. O Machine! We are not worthy to receive you but only say the word and we shall be carried to the World Series.
Well my follow up question would be: How many times in the playoffs did we have to rely on Mike Fiers and did Lance McCullers ever return to form?
But that's sorta like how the Ken Giles trade happens AFTER the bullpen has a massive meltdown in the 2015 ALDS. I've seen a lot of people harkening back to now accepting the Chris Sale for LMJ trade back in 2015... or Chris Sale for Bregman trade back in the off-season. Those retrospective agreements don't quite work that way. Foresight is tough...
If that's the calculus then I think we'd all agree that holding out for Archer is the better play. But I am extremely skeptical about that being the situation. For one thing, opposing GMs have these deadline deals as a reference point; Tampa's GM can look at the deals for Sale, Quintana, and Gray, and know where his floor sits. Archer will have a dramatically higher cost than Gray, especially considering that almost every team is a buyer in the offseason.
