To add, Astros farm is great, but not as great as some people think. It just isn't good enough to feed Astros and other teams unless Astros get reasonable value from the other team. Teams selling MLB players are trying to capitalize on leverage that teams like Astros will overpay at deadline. Astros just don't have the budget to take numerous shots at the World Series and overpay often at the deadline.
If you're going to have that sort of attitude... in the midst of the best season in franchise history... I don't think there will ever be a time where you feel its a good time to go for it. And go for it does not = trade the whole farm and make it impossible to contend year-in/year-out. In the end, this regime will go as far as Correa-Springer-Altuve take them. That's 3 MVP candidates... its rare to even have 2. They're not going to have 4. Luhnow full/well knows this as a built-in window for possible contention now... and whether or not they get there in the future will depend on the prospects they develop (or the trades they make) for years to come. Its also regime-nature that if failure commences during years where expectations were high... and patience starts to no longer be a constant (especially since a ton of their revenue is going to be based on attendance, and Houston attendance will only be consistent for a bonafide winner).... it leads to more aggressiveness as more years go by.
It will never be cheaper, with the core players, than it is right now.... or last year. They've really not had to invest anything reasonable in the big league club... nothing that the most smallest of market teams could afford.
No team... ever has gone into the playoffs more likely to win than not since the 8 team format was introduced. If you give me a 120 win team or the field, I'm taking the field. And yes, I do feel there are circumstances where you push what chips you have in, I was fine with those 04/05 teams getting players by any means necessary. This team, not so much. I feel we are likely to win a world series if we stay good, but as I stated earlier i would give us at best a 33% chance of winning it in this particular year. That's not me having a problem with this team, just realizing the baseball format means the worst team that makes the playoffs has a chance to win it all if they have a good stretch at the right time, and the opposite for the the best teams that make the postseason.
I think the only arguments that can be made are for players that actually were traded. With the ever pressing need for pitching, one would think that any reasonably priced, effective, healthy pitcher would have been traded if the trading team wanted to deal. I also don't think one can surmise that the Astros would have had to give up comparable prospects for Gray or Darvish. I suspect both teams (especially Oakland since Gray is under club control through 2019) would demand more from a division rival. All that being said, we should respect this particular thread and take trade discussion to the other thread.
Strange... the 04/05 teams were more like last year's team. Underperforming/dissapointing, would need to go on a long run and bypass a bunch of teams just to make it. And yet last year, the company line was that why waste future resources in a year where its a long-shot to make the playoffs? (again, no real wrong answer here... just pointing out a fallacy in thinking). Again, you can make that case every year as long as the format is what it is. There's still a reason why contending teams routinely buy at the deadline... it does improve odds. Luhnow has flat-out said as much: small odds improvements actually are more magnified due to the small-sample/crapshoot of a playoff system. In this case, they tried to improve... it failed... we move on. I'm with Nook, though, that habitual deadline failure will not likely bode well if this team continues to come up short in the post-season.
Can we keep this talk in the other thread? Seems silly to be discussing same thing in multiple threads and I keep checking here thinking I'll find updated prospect lines from last night.
Astros spent their budget for this year. Following the logic that it will never be cheaper likely means Astros are going to lose players and need prospects to play. Not counting backups and up and down guys, Astros don't have many guys close to the majors as prospects. Complain all you want, it isn't going to change the Astros owner and the Astros financial situation. I'm expecting budgets to get around 150 milliion soon, but not sure they will go much higher until Correa is a free agent. On investing into 2017, there is absolutely no small or mid market team that has invested as heavily into 2017 as the Astros. Astros paid dearly from 2011 to 2014 to invest in this team and the teams in the near future. The 2017 Astros didn't just sprout out of the ground. Astros invested heavily in Correa and a lot of other prospects even though a lot failed. While the Astros are unwilling to overpay in investments when other teams have leverage at the last minute, they have invested heavily in the 2017 Astros by keeping prospects in the past, acquiring prospects in the past, not trading guys would help them the most, and spending efficiently.
I honestly think you, and others, cry poor more than the actual owner does... because its a convenient excuse to fit your argument. Crane has continued to raise payroll... and he has earmarked exceptions to take on big contracts in the past. He should continue to do so during the window of cheap/controlled MVP players. I would temper your use of the word "heavily". Yes, as a franchise, they went from devoting nearly zero resources to a ton of resources in the minor league system during those years. Also, the average ticket-buying fan cares very little about those foundational investments on a year-to-year basis... you can't sell that to the marketing department, and it has zero basis here in discussing what they need to do now to improve their post-season chances. The ownership is very much aware on how they're ultimately going to make the most money... and that the best way to and elevate your team from that small-mid market to the mid-big market bracket (which is entirely plausible in this city) is to ensure attendance stays up, viewership/interest stays up. The best way to do that is to invest heavily in the MLB team once the foundation you set starts paying off.... and they've said as much to this being part of the plan. My original point is that now is a far more opportune time to spend (or have the ability to spend) than it will be when the current MLB cheap guys are up for big raises (and they'll have to spend then too...).
I would agree if we were about to have a lot of guys hit free agency Next year Gregerson and Beltran Following year Marwin and Keuchel Many guys moved at the deadline were not just rentals also But yea Luhnow is the smartest man in the room always
Splash. Noel, 28, was a 5th-round pick of the Padres out of Coastal Carolina in 2010. He appeared in 15 games with the Yankees in 2015, mainly as a pinch-runner. Noel stole 90 bases in 2012, which was 2nd in the minors to Delino DeShields, who stole 101 that year. Noel has been successful on 81.7% of his stolen base attempts in the minors.
This is where I am at too....and the other thing is, we could have easily added a couple of good pen arms without touching the elite guys at the top of the system. Look at all the guys tellit updates in this thread, yea we have no idea which of those other teams would want and wouldn't, but it don't take a genius to know we could have got help without losing Martes, Tucker, Whitley, Fisher....
I feel like this is putting blame on other teams , " unless they get a reasonable deal." Why can't the Astros get reasonable deals ? Every other team can . Maybe we just truly got unlucky this time by trying to trade in-division and with a team that has a crazy owner ... But at what point does blame fall on us for leaving those options as our only options? Frankly , our farm system should be strong enough . If it's not , that's a failure . We had huge advantages picking 3 years in a row . The slot system is fairly new , but I think over time we will appreciate the benefits it gives to the team's picking higher. Under the old rules we would not have been able to get both Correa and McCullers . The Astros were at the bottom of MLB payrolls for 4 years . We should have plenty of reserves to spend . It's Houston , we have spent plenty in the past and our other sports franchises spend .
This is a very opportune time to spend money. Crane didn't spend as much as I expected. This makes me very skeptical about significantly larger future budgets. Whether you want to call people seeing this as "crying poor", that is your call. I see it more as Crane is cheap. Payrolls will increase some, but I'm not seeing any evidence that Crane will pay enough for pitching.
Correct! @tellitlikeitis is awesome! Appreciate all the work he puts into keeping us informed here. Even if I probably piss him off some
