I apologize if I misunderstood. I thought the discussion was about whether it was worth making a trade or not.
Gray has a track record. Fiers and peacock do not. More likely gray sustains those numbers than it is for the other 2.
He is really good. I mean, nobody is really untouchable, but I could see him being untouchable for the current upgrades. I know I wasn't prepared to deal him a week ago, but am warming up to the possibility.
The projections say you are correct, although their accuracy is not that good when it comes to breakouts. However, the conversation is about what has happened, not what might happen.
I think what we are seeing on this board is that everyone has been adjusting their expectation as to what it would take to get a Frontline pitcher, and kept adjusting and then overshot it. We are at the point to where stroman is going to allegedly cost us 5 top 50 players. That Fulmer return up there jumped the shark. We have to remember what Chris sale got in return. A top 3 prospect and a top 20 prospect and a couple of to scare and jd Davis types. If Fulmer gets Tucker and Whitley as part of the package, that's about the end of any top 100 type players being involved in The package. A top 10 and likely top 25 prospect at seasons end. When you take into account Fulmer is a couple notches at least below sale...
I think you are right. A starter and a reliever will not and should not gut our farm. We have a very deep system. If we get the top starter or one of the top starters on the market and same with a bullpen arm then we shouldn't lose more than 3 of our top 6 prospects and no more than 5 of our organizational top 20.
I agree with this. Including Martes (or Whitley) and Tucker means not much else is involved. We can safely assume Tucker, Martes, and 2 3rd tier guys will be enough for any player who might be available.
I agree..he looks awesome. It's just that I think he's at least 2 years away from being on the big club. And this team is the best in baseball and in a position to win right now....for a franchise that has qualified for exactly one World Series in its history, that's a pretty unique opportunity. I'm not sure I'd let a 19 year old pitcher get in the way if I thought I could flip him for someone who could help me out right now.
To add to that...any high end player that is available with control. And a rental like Darvish wouldn't take that much. If the price on Darvish includes any of tucker, Whitley, martes then I think it's an easy answer of "no thanks."
This probably isn't the right place but idk where else to ask it. I have a friend that joined clutchfans but he is restricted from posting, changing his avatar, or doing anything at all really. He says he did the confirmation thing through email but nothing is working. Is there a lag period, or something else he needs to do? When I joined I don't remember having the same problem. Any help would be appreciated.
I think he'd help us next year, though out of the bullpen most likely. If it changes our chances from 25% to 50% you definitely don't let it get in your way. If it changes it from 25% to 30% though? Maybe... If Oakland offered Gray for just Whitley, that would be a deal I'm not sure Luhnow could turn down. If that is what it took, I'm not sure you can risk losing out on him. The idea of putting Peacock in the pen in the postseason intrigues me, and with Gray we could do that. Given Britton's injury and less stellar performances this year, I think that could be the best bet.
Whatever it takes to get Sonny I'm ok with as long as K Tucker isn't involved. we've got a Cody Bellinger clone.
Part of me wishes I could just hibernate until 12:30 on the 1st. Let's get this over with and get back to actual baseball!
There are a few ways to measure it, though none are perfect. Analytically, you can look at something like FanGraphs, which currently gives the Astros a 17% chance of winning the WS (Dodgers are at 20%). But I assume that's based on performance, so a trade won't really affect it. You can also look at sportsbetting odds, which currently have the Astros at 4:1 odds (20% chance). And if the team makes a trade, look at how their odds change overnight and that will tell you at least what people generally think of the change in their odds.
I know where the numbers come from... but do you know exactly how those odds/%'s are calculated? In the end, no single move short of a plane crash of the entire team will sway the odds significantly one way or the other... especially not in a sport with as many variables as baseball.
