So what you're saying is you'd rather have a proven loser (Price) in the playoffs than someone inexperienced? Gotcha.
Not really worried about Boston whatsoever. Cleveland? Kluber has had some lingering neck problems recently, Carrasco has been sporadic at best this season as they don't know what version of him they will get. Bauer has been dreadful this season and they are thinking about moving him to bullpen. Salazar just came back with an impressive start but I need to see consistency out of him. Clevinger has been solid but he just got beaten up after a string of good starts. Bottomline, nothing is set in stone. The Astros can beat their pitchers with solid starts. Adding a Gray would help but he literally is producing at a Fiers level right now. If Keuchel/McCullers are rolling, who can stop us? If Morton/Peacock/Fiers are average to above-average... we will be more than ok. I wanted a ToR guy about a month ago but things have changed... if it's a Degrom or Thor or Stroman ok cool... but they aren't out there unless you offer a King's ransom and Luhnow hasn't shown that he's willing to part with a Tucker/Martes/Alvarez... He wants the Britton and/or Wilson and I'm fine with it. The ONLY way this backfires is if Keuchel injury lingers and comes back with a fury and McCullers goes down with a season ending injury... then we are screwed but the same can be said for Boston and Cleveland.
Great now you're going to put words in my mouth, when did I say our guys aren't great. You're fine with rolling with guys who have been hot but have a VERY limited sample size at playing at the level they are. Fiers is doing well this moment. Brad Peacock is doing well this moment. Do I want to rely on guys who have never proven to be ToR guys in the majors during my play-off window because of an extremely limited sample size of good play? No, I prefer proven ToR guys like Cy young winners like Boston has in Porcello/Price ( I doubt everyone else is writing him off as casually as you based on a handful of bad play off starts) and six time all-star Sale even if they have their own issues. You can point to issues with any pitcher (injuries, post-season stats) and you can use number selectively to try and make a point. Which I see your adept at. Keuchel and McCullers are a good 1 and 2 (We don't really know but we will have to hope) but I'd prefer to go out and get a proven ace as a third pitcher. For this year and the next few years of our window. You can believe the hot streaks of Brad Peacock and Mike Fiers will be sustained forever but I would prefer to rely on proven TOR guys. "Most of these guys aren't TOR starters" - Yea, Porcello is, Price is, Sale is, Kluber is, Strasbourg is, Scherzer is, Carrasco is. so yes, "most" of these guys are. IMO you are giving far too much weight to an extremely small sample size and current form. I'm not devaluing our guys I'm recognizing them for what they are based on their careers and not over inflating them based on a small sample size. Arbitrary value to opposing players? These rotations have proven extremely good high end starters. Bostons rotation features two Cy-Young winners and Chris Sale. They speak for themselves. I'm throwing out Keuchal (an equal) McCullers (I'm hesitant) and friggin Brad Peacock/Mike Fiers up against that.
Yea great point who would want David Price? . Only an organization that has won multiple world series recently just gave him 200+ million. Idiots. I'd rather have Mike Fiers or Brad Peacock because they have had the hottest two months of their lives.
I'm just throwing out a random postseason sample size argument that I KNOW major and others love to death: Maddux: 10 GS (10G): 65 IP, 4.15 ERA, .250 .307 .395 .703, age 30 Price: 9 GS (15G): 66.2 IP, 5.54 ERA, .259 .302 .441 .744, age 30 Adjust for usage, league and era (not ERA) as you wish.
Price sucks in the postseason. Clearly, The Price is Not Right. BTW, don't call people idiots when you're acting like one yourself.
Porcello had a good season last year, but let's be realistic about him. His career numbers are far worse than Mike Fiers. 7 of his 9 seasons have had ERAs above 4, including this one. He is, in no way, shape, or form, a TOR. If he were an Astro, you'd be asking that the Astros trade for someone so they could get him out of the rotation. Carrasco's numbers are very similar to Fiers. Price/Sale/Kluber are, and I've already said the Nationals have multiple aces. I'd take our rotation over Cleveland, with no hesitation. There's a reason we are something like 13 games better than them, despite all our health issues. Boston is a good matchup with us - stronger at the front, though with a guy with major playoff failures haunting him - while weaker at the back. Meanwhile, our offense runs circles around them. The Nationals are legitimately dangerous. Regardless, that doesn't put us as "one of the worst" playoff 1-3's. Simply put, we'd be significantly favored against every team in the AL in a series matchup right now.
There's also the scenario that Keuchel gets re-injured, Peacock and Fiers regress towards career norms and turn into pumpkins, Altuve goes cold in the playoffs (as he's done before), and the Astros get bounced in the division series to a wild card team. I know "that's baseball" will be the response... but I want this team to be better than that. I want as much proven pitching as possible (provided the price is not egregious...which given some other trades being discussed, and what is left on the market, it shouldn't be).
Pretty sure they've regretted that contract so far themselves. And as other posters have shown, he's been awful in the post season...he's a head case. My whole point was you don't really know what you're going to get in the playoffs from guys. Also, Peacock has been good all year not two months.
It's not random. I've heard or read that there are doubts that he will be able to pitch in the colder months. It might have been on the radio.
Luhnow: 4-1 on the road trip. Team is playing well despite losing key guys for a couple of days. Update on injured guys? Hoping Bregman & Springer are a few days. Today off. Hopefully back for Detroit. Need to take injuries serious even if they're minor. Don't need to rush anyone back. They'll be back. Don't expect to miss any significant time. Verlander? You know I can't talk about particular players. Exciting time over next few days for all times. We're doing our homework, talking to clubs. If a deal makes sense this year, we'll take advantage of it. When will money become a factor? You see LA/NY/CHI & money is never an issue. Are we in that position that it's spare no expense? Jim has responsible businesses & will run the Astros the same way. Irresponsible not to consider financial impact but I believe ownership is prepared to make investments if they make sense & take on payroll if it makes sense. We're not in the category of bigger markets with unlimited revenue & can make mistakes. We're not in that boat. How can we get to a point where there is that TV money & extra revenue? Good question. Starts with the model the Cardinals built. Product every year that is great & thru the gate. Cardinals are in small city but they get good attendance because of good product. We're locked in a TV deal. Not a ton we can do there. We can do more to make stadium better, better product on the field for fans to enjoy the game. We won't be NY/LA/CHI/BOS in terms of revenue but some room to grow. Cardinals all these years have never broken the bank. Maybe Matt Holliday. Do you carry that same philosophy? Watching Walt & Mo, they made smart moves. I learned a lot from them. If you go back through history & big trade deals when they happened, a lot didn't work out. There's a cost fans don't feel in the short term but there is a hangover effect. Right now today, all I want is the splashy name. We want to win, win now but I have to look at the next 3 years & foreseeable future. We've got these guys together for a few years. They'll be playing together for 3-4-5 years. Foolish for us to take big chunks for the next few years away to marginally improve this year. We want to win & would love to be celebrating in October. Verlander contract That's a danger of signing players to long deals. Beginning years, it's good & fans are excited. Later, the player is not performing of what you're hoping for or for that salary. It's harder today to move a big contract that's under-performing. How much do you weigh paying a guy as an icon(Pujols) though might see his production decline? It has to be considered. If you have franchise player, feels like you'll lose a lot if he moves on. Reality is, if you have iconic player & not producing, fans won't buy tickets to see a player who was good 5 years ago. Hypothetical game three playoff starter? Morton made a case last night. Peacock has several times. Fiers pitching well. McHugh has a new slider. We still have time & some choices. Concern about McCullers last month? He's a competitor. He knows he hasn't produced last few outings but...I won't read too much into it. Another 3-4 starts, think he'll be back on track.
But that is baseball. We're talking about a paltry 3-5 game stretch. In the regular season we would laugh at anybody that makes judgement on such a small sample. Peacock and Fiers might get one start. Either one could dominate or get lit up, and it will be indicative of nothing in the grand scheme. What if Jake Marisnick has a hot stretch, what if Collin McHugh thas 2 dominant outings. Literally any player could be the MVP of a 5 game series. There is simply nothing we can do, absolutely nothing, that will give a much higher likely hood of winning a series, much less the WS.
Not now perhaps unless a unexpected big name hits the market. But in retrospect, Sale would have moved the needle some.
At the time I though this team still had too many overall question marks to drain the farm, so it was justifiable at the time. But in hindisght absolutely. If we had any clue that our offense would be historically awesome you go ahead and pull the trigger on that, cost be damned. Dominant offense, and then you run out Keuchel, Sale and McCullers, that some Warriors level s**t.
Thats what I was thinking.. After those first rough couple of innings, he probably heard Hinch mutter something about can't wait til Keuchel is back. Hinch has been playing mind games with all of them since sending Fiers down lit a fire. Even Martes and Musgrove have felt the heat that maybe their only option is bullpen so they are destroying at it.
The flipside is that you acquire someone "proven" but not playing as well, and you lose in the playoffs because you took away an opportunity from someone else who might have been outstanding. Say you get Verlander and we lose in the ALDS while benching Peacock. What if Peacock would have been better and won? If we lose, there will be questions no matter what route you take. At best, this team will have maybe a 25% chance of winning the World Series going into the playoffs - that percentage would be outstanding relatively speaking. Acquiring someone may increase that slightly, but we're talking 5% or less with the people on the table (Gray, etc) or even negative-something for a guy like Verlander if Peacock/Fiers are still pitching well come October (because if you get Verlander, you're starting him no matter what, unfortunately). Is that worth losing potential significant pieces for 6 years, not to mention the extra salary, etc?
I'm guessing guys on trade table would impact World Series odds by less than 2% combined. If Astros win World Series this year, it is likely due to guys on team already. Winning a division is worth about 12.5% in World Series odds. Astros look to be the dominant force in AL West most healthy years for a few years to come.
Yeah, if Sale were available today, I'd trade Tucker, Whitley, & Martes for him in a heartbeat. Probably throw in Perez too. What you want Bauskas? He's yours.
