Yeah. They should have spent more on veterans in my opinion. My understanding is that the Astros have tried to work out extensions with some of their younger players. Not surprisingly there hasn't been much interest from the players side. The reality is that the trade market isn't all that exciting now.
Matt Holliday, Jon Lester come to mind. And neither should the Astros be lumped with small market teams. Attendance and tv money will only be solid in this market with winning. This market has all the potential to be as good as any, but also has the potential to be as bad as Miami or Montreal if ownership aborts the plan to continue to raise payroll.
That's likely a fan mindset, not a management mindset. Money saved now is money that can be spent later. A franchise (or any business) doesn't just look at money on a year-by-year basis. For example, if they don't waste $56MM on Verlander the next two years, that's $56MM they can spend elsewhere - whether these next two years or giving them flexibility down the line. Similarly, if they can fill an outfield spot with a club-controlled Fisher for 6 years, that's a Reddick or Beltran that they don't need to sign, giving them money to spend on the core.
Gray fine but are you really still on the Alonso bandwagon? Where do we play him? Also he's been a snorefest lately.
Management that has never won a World Series should always have that consideration in mind. Small market mindset will always have that sort of deductive reasoning. Many called the Reddick and McCann contracts a waste of money on past-prime players... veterans are always going to be overpaid in comparison to guys on pre-arbitration deals, but as this season has overwhelmingly shown, you need established MLB vets on a team that has a young/club-controlled core. As I said before, they've saved a TON of money on the Altuve extension alone, let alone having the bulk of WAR all club-controlled for the next 3 years. They should have really escalated the spending towards veterans beginning last year.
Oh, I thought the "not a rental" part was clear. Holliday went from Colorado to the A's in the winter, and was traded at the next deadline (pending FA). Lester was with Oakland (after the Cespedes deadline trade) for 11 starts and then left as a FA.
Yup. We are in a good market and if we win... everyone wins. We should have added vets in 2016 and management probably realized they let the young club down. They probably counted on Valbuena and Rasmus to take the mantle and it didn't work. Even next year, McCann/Reddick will continue to take the Vet leadership role as Beltran falls off the books. That money saved should be allocated to arbitration folk as we solidify the core. We might even try to extend Altuve to a contract he deserves beyond the current contract he has. Luhnow and the FO did a great job in in managing the roster this year... allowing for flexibility throughout the roster.
Astros budget now is about 125 million. He may be able to talk Crane up to 130-135 at deadline. Luhnow has about as good a team as you can get for that budget. He doesn't have money to overspend on vets. On extending the core, Astros likely don't have enough for everyone and he likely doesn't have the future budget to make a Sandoval mistake even on an extension. Also, it would not surprise me if Crane gives Luhnow a budget for how much guaranteed money he can allocate past this season in addition to the annual budget. Luhnow is going to wait on high dollar extensions to make sure he picks right guy (s). That said, I'm not sure how much of the current core can be kept. I'd put over/under at 1.5 for Altuve, Correa, Springer, Keuchel, and LMJ. Luhnow would never be like Dombrowski, but Dodgers and Yankees play a lot like Luhnow. They make big trades, but still maintain the farm system. Having an extra 300-350 million to spend over a seven year period means a team needs about 5-8 less Top 100 prospects at the very minimum over that period. Luhnow is playing his way, trying for sustained success to improve the chances of winning world series. Without future Yankee budgets, he needs cheap labor in the future more to maintain sustained success as he knows he won't be signing Harper for the OF.
Altuve (signed thru '19) Keuchel ('18) Correa ('21) LMJ ('21) Springer ('20) I think it's pretty obvious they're not going to be able to keep all five of these guys (as you've pointed out). IMO if they're able to sign DK and Altuve to extensions this would keep the above five player core together through '20. They'd also have DK, Altuve, CC & LMJ through '21. That gives them a window of this yr, '18, '19, 20 (and '21 without Springer). If DK comes back and is healthy for the rest of this yr and next yr you have to do everything in your power to resign him. It's EXTREMELY hard to acquire elite pitching. Springer will be gone after '20 and more then likely Correa will be as well after '21 (especially with DK and Altuve signed to big contracts).
Almost seems like you're making a case to strike when a championship is within reach. Similarly to how Crane was willing to increase the budget for getting Hamels in 2015 (but never really added that money elsewhere). I'm still not crying poor or trying to sympathize with Crane. They need to be in the race to generate revenue. They should be able to spend as much as Texas, St. Louis, Detroit, KC, Cleveland, Toronto to remain competitive. This is the business he chose.
Would the Rangers really not deal Yu Darvish to Houston? Provided the Astros are interested in Darvish, Luhnow might have to pay a surcharge in the form of a slightly better prospect package. That's primarily an offshoot of the AL West dynamic -- with the Texas factor serving as the cherry on top. "If you have four teams going after Darvish with strong farm systems, my guess is the tie would go to somebody outside the division," said an AL general manager. "Houston would probably have to beat the other teams, but by what margin is probably a better question for Jon Daniels." Wednesday night at Globe Life Park in Arlington, he'll be pitching before an equally attentive array of observers against the Miami Marlins. Some of them will be seated behind home plate, aiming radar guns Darvish's way and taking lots of notes. The Astros will presumably have a talent evaluator in the crowd. But if they have any desire to land the crown jewel of this year's trade deadline, they better be ready to pay.
Astros should make moves they can make to improve this year without significantly impacting chances to win in the future. I understand that "strike when a championship is within reach" is based on the idea that a team can drastically increase its chances of winning the World Series in a specific year. Astros are at a point that they don't need (i.e. very tough for them to significantly improve) much besides health and 2-5 more great innings every 3 playoff games to be about as good as they can be. Having insurance for health is likely too costly for constraints placed on Luhnow without significantly impacting future, which looks very bright. On Hamels, Philly accepted a bad contract from Rangers. I assume Philly would have paid some of Hamels's contract for Astros. Astros added Kazmir and Gomez in 2015 which is almost what Hamels was paid that year by Rangers, Rasmus signed his offer for 2016, and Astros spent a lot this offseason. The Hamels money has been spent. Luhnow can coax a little here and there, but can't make Crane spend more money. Luhnow is doing a great job at putting a great team on the field to help with generating revenue. Luhnow's strategy must fit within constraints placed on team by Crane. I don't see Crane selling team any time soon so I just take it as given what he is willing to spend (though there is likely some flexibility for right player) and move on. It just isn't fun for me to discuss how much ownership is willing to spend and how they can improve it. While I know I am not as knowledgeable as Luhnow on inner working of the Astros, it is much more fun for me to discuss what he does or could do.
Bingo. If we want Darvish, the Rangers are going to stick it to us hard. VERY hard. I don't see a chance of this happening.
Keuchel is going to be tough. I'm doubtful Astros trust pitchers enough to give them a lot of money more than 3 years away. On Altuve, he won't sign an extension after his last one. He is going to be incredibly expensive come free agency.
I mean, they're all gonna be expensive. We're not the Yankees, but we're not the A's either. If we're just gonna become a farm system for teams with money, any sustained succes is gonna be monumentally difficult. I've already come to terms that a few of these guys aren't here long term, but if they all go elsewhere I'm not gonna be thrilled.
This season is going to be very important obviously. I can't see us breaking up a roster that wins the WS. Crane may be frugal, but I would be willing to be that he will pull out his checkbook when the time is necessary. He's a smart businessman, and he knows that keeping the core of this team will keep us competitive and keep fans in the seats. More fans = more money. More money = Happy Crane.
MVPs and Cy Young winners are going to be difficult to keep. I think Astros will try much harder to keep Altuve than Keuchel. If I'm the Yankees, Altuve would be on my wish list.
