Luhnow has also said they're going to try to make a trade without giving up a contributing ML'er. Obviously that could change, but I think Martes has proven to be a valuable piece coming out of the bullpen and I think has even raised his stock.
Can we not count Musgrove as contributing? I'm ok with him leaving and keeping Martes, but I would send either of them away for a solid starter and reliever
What is the interest in Verlander? Dude has been consistently terrible this season - ERA at 4.54 and WHIP at nearly 1.50? He's old, he's expensive, and he's not playing well. Plus, we'd be stuck with him for 2 more years. I don't get it. The above trades our #3 pitcher from Peacock to Gray (lateral move), and substantially downgrades our #4 pitcher from Fiers to Verlander. it does strengthen the bullpen by moving Peacock over there. Seems like a lateral move at best.
That's a silly assumption... even for the best GM in the history of history. He has an overuse injury that can flare-up at any point... they've extensively rested it. There's no quick-fix surgery to correct anything. It may stay dormant, or it may flare-up after another 3-4 starts. At that point, he may just pitch through it (provided he can still be somewhat effective). Hence the life of a pitcher. A lot of times, the best moves are made BEFORE the problem manifests itself. This front office seems pro-active/forward-thinking enough to act accordingly.
I think "terrible" may be overstating it... I'd rather they turn over other rocks but... here's the case for Verlander: - He's an innings eater. He's pitched into the 6th inning in 15 of his 20 starts (and carries a 3.15 ERA in those outings). - He's only had two truly terrible starts* (9 ER in 4IP and 7 ER in 3.1IP) - take those out, and his ERA in his other 18 starts is a full run better (3.54) and his FIP drops to 3.77. - His 8.5 K/9 - while down from last year - is still better than his career average (8.3; '06-'15). - He's been a very good postseason pitcher. If Detroit was willing to include cash and Justin Wilson.... I mean, I'd at least listen... * - Granted, those two outings were both v. Cleveland - not exactly an October pick-me-up...
Track record of success. Verlander was very good last year and his stuff is still top notch. I expect his BB/9 and BABIP to come down the rest of the season to be more in line with his career average. He's not the ace that some people think the Astros need, but he's a damn solid #3 playoff SP. His salary the next 2 years wouldn't cause any problems for the Astros with regard to keeping any of the young studs.
Yes he might get hurt again. So might every single player every single day. If you want to go all in, you do it because you expect Keuchel to be healthy.
Verlander was the 6th most valuable pitcher in baseball last season. His walks are up but his other numbers are in line with his career norms. He's still pitching deep into games and he has playoff experience. His contract and slightly down numbers mean he can be had for way less in terms of prospects than other pitchers of his caliber.
While I generally agree with your post (and said as much myself) - just FYI: he leads the AL in walks. He issued 57 all of last year; 55 so far this year. That could be a fluke or possible sign he's lost some of his control and/or velocity (and is trying - unsuccessfully - to nibble corners more). If he's the Astros ONLY addition... I'd be underwhelmed. But I still think they could use a Verlander/Samardzija-type in the back of their rotation who can eat innings and give the pen a break.
People keep saying this... but Keuchel IS hurt now, and has been on the DL twice this year for the same thing. That's different than the random injury risk that afflicts every player. Based on above, you do expect him to be healthy, right? Also, who says go "all in"? I see teams with deep farm systems making moves almost every year, when you're a buyer. You always leave something in the cupboard... and in some cases, there's a surplus of guys who will eventually need to be promoted or moved for the next crop of prospects that comes up the following year. The Astros got rid of some excess prospects in 2015 with the Gattis, Gomez, and Giles trades (and would have gotten rid of more with the Hamels trade). They didn't trade anything last year, and now they have an even better chance of making noise with the position they're in. The crux is that Keuchel will come back, and will be healthy till at least the trade deadline.... you can't decide in September when the neck flares up that you then want to make a move. You make a move now while there's availability.
Sure, he's an innings eater. That's important for the regular season, but not for playoffs, especially if we're trying to simultaneously beef up the pen. And you can't just take out 2 terrible starts for Verlander, and compare those starts to everyone else with their 2 worst starts. You also take out his two best starts (14 IP, 0 ER), and his ERA balloons much worse to 5.15. This is Verlander by month (ERA, WHIP): April: 4.60, 1.40 May: 4.42, 1.34 June: 4.39, 1.65 July: 5.87, 1.83 At no point this season has he put together any kind of stretch of dominance or done anything to suggest he'll get back to prior form this year. He's getting old, and his last postseason experience was several years ago - not sure how relevant that is anymore. For all the people who don't want "what if's" if we lose this season, what's a worst what-if than losing because you benched a guy who's been performing for you all year to run out a guy much worse than them? This seems like the classic case of finding a solution for a problem that doesn't exist. I'm ambivalent on Gray - I just don't think it moves the needle, but I get that people disagree and think he's better than I do. But Verlander would be our 5-8th best starter behind Keuchel, McCullers, Peacock, Fiers, maybe Morton, maybe McHugh, and Gray if we acquire him. And he's owed another $56MM during his 35 and 36 yr old seasons. He doesn't just not help the team, he actually likely makes it worse this year, next year, and the year after. Unless like 5 guys get injured / go to crap, there's no reason he should start for us in the postseason.
This is the sole reason why I don't want them to make a move for him. Odds are pretty good at facing Cleveland in the ALCS. Any trade we make is for the playoffs as the division is pretty much wrapped up. Neither he or Gray do much for me. I think I'd prefer we stand pat if those are the only 2 viable options.
