So its about the playoffs... and Gray has been decent in his one playoff experience... we're back to square one. His struggles (when he actually has them, not perceived struggles) have been dissected more than any other Astro pitcher in recent memory. What has been well surmised is that this year, he's struggled in low leverage situations... or after inconsistent work/long periods of inactivity. He's actually been much better across the board in the high leverage situations that you previously stated he was terrible in. Is he the best closer ever? No... but you're extrapolating your previously developed opinion (made because they traded one of your favorite all-time prospects for him) as fact, when the actual data proves otherwise.
I see this is where you deny you said any of what you said... because it is a pretty foolish argument to state that Sonny Gray was only good in the playoffs because of Oakland's ballpark, and Giles cannot find the strike zone in big moments (when neither can be construed as any sort of valid analysis, whatsoever). But to get back on track with trade talks... Vince Velazquez got hurt again... Luhnow could probably get him back for 10cents on the dollar.
I would argue THE best reason to get Gray is health - two of our expected top 3 starters are on the DL and the 3rd (McCullers) has been on the DL and has struggled since returning.
Not going to delve deep into the abyss known as Ken Giles.... but anyone that feels confident having Giles come into a playoff game with men on base or protecting a one run lead either has not watched Giles or has a level of confidence that I cannot understand. At this point I expect him to struggle in the playoffs. Hopefully it doesn't matter or he flirts with danger but gets out of it.
Agreed... although I'd also point out that nearly every Astro bullpen pitcher has struggled coming in with men on base (Devenski still good.... but not as good as when he starts an inning). Naturally, Giles won't be coming in that situation unless Harris/Devo gets in trouble.. or if Hinch lets the starter go into the 9th (and at that point, every single bullpen pitcher is available). I wouldn't say I have extreme confidence...but there's a large amount of distrust of Giles in 1 run games that doesn't really match what has happened throughout this season.
By the time the team realizes that he may just have to deal with the neck injury all season (but can still pitch)... the trade deadline would have already passed. Either you feel they need insurance now, or you don't.
he just seems to a) always put at least one runner on base b) give up hard hit outs that carry far into the OF c) routinely throws wild pitches... all of which spell a recipe for disaster. no one should feel comfortable with him in high leverage situations under the bright lights of the playoffs.
A lot of anecdotal observations... that don't really corroborate when you look at his stats (especially in close games). He also has 2 WP's this year... He's constantly under the microscope, because of the heightened leverage of when he's being brought in (its always a 9th inning appearance, regardless of score of game).... but the fact that much more is made of him allowing a runner on base, or allowing one hard hit at-em ball (with relative silence when he has a clean inning).... indicates the extent of damage he caused by having such a terrible debut impression on fans. At the end of the day, in regards to this bullpen, his FIP, WHIP, ERA, and K ability firmly put him within the trio with Devenski/Harris of being above/beyond anything else this team has. Harris struggled in the 9th last year (and in the playoffs in 2015) because he doesn't have that strikeout pitch. Devo has that pitch, but is just as (if not more) valuable in his ability to pitch multiple innings.
Giles is being tested in every way this season... And that is important because when the playoffs start, there will be plenty of data on how he does in pretty much every situation. That's something we have to remember, how they are using Giles now, with a 16 game lead in the division and a 10 game lead in the AL, is not at all how they will use him in the playoffs. Now is about building that data. In the playoffs, it's about using the data to put the team in the best place to win games. So if Giles is bad coming in with runners on base, then they won't use him that way in the playoffs... period.
Gray for F Perez, Teoscar, Musgrove, and H Perez Verlander, Wilson, and $20M for Fiers, Alvarez, C Perez, and Cameron. Playoff pitching staff: Keuchel McCullers Gray Verlander McHugh Bullpen: Morton, Peacock, Gregerson, Harris, Devenski, Wilson, Giles
Getting Gray, Verlander and Wilson without losing young Tucker, Whitley, Martes or Fisher.. I like it. I doubt it's realistic but what do I know?
I'd be more confident in jankowski with a one run lead than facing him down one too. Pretty much any pitcher with an ERA below 9 would work that way.
A) 18 AL relievers have 5+ saves. Of those, Giles is 7th in WHIP (1.08). He has had 15 'clean' outings of his 37, and another 12 where 1 batter has reached. C) He has thrown two wild pitches this season compared to 14 last season. Most amazingly...this season he has only had to enter the 9th inning with a 1 run lead 3 times and converted all 3.
Everyone seems to be discounting Martes when considering Whitley untouchable. Martes has been impressive for a 21 year old in the bigs, I'd be inclined to try and keep him at all costs.
