"What I'm told is they kind of have the inside track on Sonny Gray. They have a nice package they can deliver. The problem is the A's still have a good 10-11 days before the deadline. They want to see if they can get a better offer. The Astros have a good farm system & can deliver some nice prospects. Right now, I'm told they have the best package for the A's." - Pedro Gomez
I know I know, pitching. We need more. But... I'd like to double down on offense. We have a, relatively, weakness in the outfield that I would like to bolster. Really just strengthen a strength similar to this off-season. Im not sure ozuna is actually obtainable albeit that would be amazing and my preferred target. But I wonder, what's the market on mccutchen? What would be the cost? He has a team option?(I believe) so he would be a 2 year rental likely. Thoughts? on possibly acquiring another bat, other than we need to address pitching.
Anyone remember the 98 Astros? A slightly less offensive version of this year's team. Completely shutdown in the playoffs by Kevin Brown. This team as currently constituted is not built for the playoffs. Get us some more pitching please.
The 1998 and 2015 Astros acquired RJ, Kazmir, and Fiers. They were all clear upgrades over the guys they are replacing. In 1998, we acquired a clear ace that was there to help us in the playoffs. In 2015, we acquired a playoff starter and a regular season starter to help us get to the playoffs. The regular season part helped us - but in both cases, we lost all the playoff games any of these guys started. Fiers was denied the opportunity to start a playoff game, because we started a "name" guy that we acquired for the playoffs, despite the fact that he wasn't pitching well (we lost that game too). This year's team is different - we have three or four #3 pitchers. We don't need regular season help. If the Astros acquired a Kazmir type this year (Sonny Gray) and started him over Peacock or Fiers and lose that game and lose a series as a result, you could and should be asking why we didn't go with the players we already had that were playing phenomenally well. Unless you're talking about DeGrom, there's no one out there that's a clear upgrade over what we have now. It's not just about collecting talent - it's about collecting talent that would slot in clearly above what you otherwise throw out there. Sonny Gray replacing Paulino is different than Sonny Gray replacing Peacock/Fiers/McHugh/Morton. EDIT: Gray's real value is that he improves the 2018 and 2019 teams by giving us some stability in the rotation. But I don't think he provides a ton of incremental value in 2017.
That is the most contradictory statement I have ever seen in my life. Are you saying we won't be able to hit therefore we need ....more pitching. Because that 98 team did add pitching and it didn't help.
What if Keuchel's injury continues to nag him and McCullers's struggles remain? What if the injury messed up McHugh? This isn't an outlandish scenario, it's literally what is happening right now. It's not crazy to say that we could be forced to trot out a Peacock/Fiers/Morton playoff rotation. Why not go get some insurance on the mound for the best offense in Astros history?
Except.... he's healthy. To me, that's the difference: it's not a performance issue; it's a health issue. If everyone is guaranteed to be healthy, I'd be good with Keuchel, McCullers and whoever #3 (likely McHugh). But what are the odds all three of those guys, who have missed *a lot* of starts this past year and a half, will be at full strength in October? Do you trust Morton to be healthy, too?...
I can imagine that the A's and Astros are each other's fallback options. Oakland wants to wait to see if another buyer comes back with a stronger offer, Houston wants to wait to see if a better pitcher becomes available. In the end I think odds favor Gray ending up in Houston.
I guess it depends on how you view Gray. He's had plenty of his own health struggles, and while he's pitched well the last few weeks, he was bad last year and just OK this year as a whole. I classify him as a #3. He doesn't replace Keuchel or McCullers (a #1 and #2). This is where having four #3 pitchers already makes him redundant. Let's assume Keuchel is hurt: Rotation Without Trade: McCullers, #3, #3, #3 Rotation With Trade: McCullers, #3, #3, #3 In the first case, your choices are some combo of Fiers, Peacock, Morton, McHugh. You can still have one more guy injured and you have the same basic rotation. In the 2nd case, you can now lose Keuchel and TWO of your #3s (Fiers, Peacock, Morton, McHugh, Gray). We're already covered for the playoffs if two starters falter due to injury or suckitude. So yeah, it's injury protection for losing a 3rd starting pitcher in the next 3 months - I'm simply not paying much for that. At that point, why not get injury protection for a 4th or 5th injury/failure too? If you believe Gray is better than a #3, then sure, it's an upgrade. I simply think he has as many questionmarks as Peacock & Fiers (can they sustain), McHugh (who knows), and Morton (injury) - and we have plenty of protection at that level anyway with those 4 guys.
I always respect your opinion on these boards, but I think you would find very few people across baseball who would agree that Gray is interchangeable with any of Peacock/Fiers/Morton.
Sure - he has more of a track record. That's why I say long-term, he stabilizes the rotation. But this year (and last year, given Gray's performance then)? Our guys are performing as well or better. You're relying on name brand instead of results. Peacock has been the runaway best of the bunch - he's actually pitching like a #1 or #2 (minus some endurance), but I don't put him at that level due to track record and uncertainty. Fiers the last 2 months has been pitching like a #2 as well, but same issue - lack of track record. EDIT: If the playoffs were to start today and we had all these guys on our team, I would 100% want to take my chances with Peacock over Gray. Fiers and Gray are interesting, because both started out poorly and have gotten better, so they are sort of on the same trajectory. Morton would go to bullpen. McHugh we still need to see if he's 2014, 2015, or 2016 McHugh.
Sorry if I wasn't clear. We were dominated by very good pitching even though we were very good offensively.
Yeah, if we don't hit, it won't matter. The good news is our lineup should hit against anyone. Our team isn't built for the playoffs, yet Keuchel & LMJ matchup well with any top 2 in baseball and Peacock is pitching better than anybody's #3 guy. If that happens, Sonny Gray isn't going to make us significantly better. Keuchel is irreplaceable on the current market. LMJ is irreplaceable on the current market. Our offense could win us the WS and you never know what pitchers are going to suddenly step up (Brandon Backe...). If pitching was all it took in the playoffs Oswalt/Clemens/Pettitte and big game Backe would have won us a couple. The Braves sure as hell would have more than 1. The Yankees wouldn't have been so dominant in the late 90s-00s. Baseball is such a weird game.
I totally agree that if the Astros trade for a SP, he needs to be better than a #3. It would be a huge waste if the pitcher we acquire won't even start in the playoffs. Sonny Gray would provide both short-term and long-term value. His ERA this year is inflated due to playing with the league-worst defense. I think he would rank in the top 15 lowest FIP if he had the qualifying innings. Also, his numbers have been very good in the months of June and July. As long as he doesn't cost us Whitley, Tucker or Franklin Perez, I'm all for acquiring him.
Gray is starting to progress back to his performance prior to injury. His FIP is back to what it was pre injury, as is his WHIP, hits, etc. I have always viewed him as a two pitch pitcher, but he is a legitimate #2 on a good team.
I've thought all along making the playoffs was the first step and that was this year. Next year was likely the Series. So for me, I am willing to roll with the experiment of holding our pitching ground, seeing what happens with the overachievers ( which is just about everyone this year ). They earned the right. I'm on the side that wants an intimidating ace and feels we are short on that side of the equation. There isn't one available anymore. So wait until next year. I'll be fine with getting Gray, but I'd be just fine going with our overachievers too to see if they are legit or not. If they had failed throughout the year I'd be all for Gray, but as of right now, looks like they might be able to get it done with Keuchel, Mchugh, McCullers, and Morton.
With all due respect, I'm not sure it is possible for me to disagree with a post more than I disagree with most of this one.
