It doesn't make sense. It would mean the players don't believe in each other. When the team is going so well, they really should feel good about each other. I do think we should upgrade the bullpen, but the front office already did their job. They put together the best team in Astros history.
Mike Fiers wouldn't start Game 3. Right now you'd have to favor Peacock, probably followed by McHugh and Morton. Last 2 years, Sonny Gray has a 4.86 ERA, 85 ERA+
Why? We are 4th in ERA despite all the injuries. We are 1st in starter ERA. We'd be the favorites against both, and by good margin. We might not win because it is baseball, but it isn't because we don't land Sonny Gray. If a Chris Sale was available right now, he'd be unquestionably worth it, but he isn't.
None of that matters if they don't win it all. Luhnow will be the first to say that they have areas that could/should be improved (lefty bullpen, another starter due to unknown health issues). The 2001 Mariners are simply a footnote... and a team that had pretty mediocre starting playoff pitching after Garcia.
I don't put McHugh and Morton ahead of Fiers right now. The 3 of them are all on about equal footing in my book. I would probably have Morton last because his stuff would play up out of the pen. Peacock has moved ahead of everybody else IMO. He's had 3 straight outings in which he pitched an adequate number of innings for a starter. If he can keep pitching like this averaging 6 on a regular basis, then he is a front end starter. I didn't feel that way when he was constantly going 4-5 innings. Right now we have 6 guys I'm OK giving the ball to. I still agree we should go after a guy like Gray, but I don't feel it's a "we're screwed if we don't" type need.
If they don't make any moves, and they don't win it all, why can't you question why? The Cubs were the best team in baseball last year... before they made critical moves to improve and optimize their chances. I'd much rather 1998 Astros it or even 2015 Astros it, vs 2001 Mariners it.
The only reason I want Gray, who would be a marginal upgrade is 2 reasons: Injury support and cheap enough that we can also get a reliever. After watching most of our losses, we need pen help bad. Have you guys noticed that each one of our relievers is higher than league avg in inherited runners scoring? That sucks and ruins the ERA of our starters. I want Gray and Hand/Wilson/Britton... If we can't do both, I would throw the farm at DeGrom or Stroman. Anyone who says that isn't an upgrade isn't watching.
I'm not really sure the starters on the market are an improvement. They either have similar health concerns or serious performance concerns, and sometimes both. But anyways, it was the Mariners offense that failed, not really the pitching. So you'd rather lose in the division series than the championship series? We are better than the Cubs, but I also said I'd like to add to the bullpen, the same move the Cubs made.
The I really wish we can pry away Degrom from the mets (thats a game changer) That could be an automatic win in the playoffs
We'll have to see how the rest of the season plays out for those 3. I want Gray, but I'm not giving up much to get him. If they want Martes or Perez to frontline it. I'd really like an elite reliever. Britton fits the mold, but he has been hurt most of the season and hasn't been his same dominant self in what limited action he has seen.
Any acquired starter could also improve the bullpen indirectly, by pushing Peacock or Morton to a max-effort/short-stint role. But yes, improvement in the bullpen would be welcomed. The Mariners pitching failed spectacularly, particularly as the series went further towards elimination.... they actually did have a stacked bullpen, but they also had starters who had career years.
So, just to make sure we are all on the same page, there are many posters in this thread who are okay about going into a playoff series with the following rotation: A guy who missed the final month of 2016 and hasn't pitched since June 2nd A guy who has never pitched in more than 22 games in a season and has a 7.53 ERA since returning from the DL with batters hitting .328 against him A guy who only pitched in 4 games in 2016, has already had a DL stint in 2017, and has a 4.50 career ERA Mike Fiers/Brad Peacock Y'all SERIOUSLY don't see the need to potentially try and get some insurance?
The Mariners starters gave up 9 Earned runs in that series across 29.1 IP for a 2.79 ERA in the series. Failed spectacularly is an interesting way to describe it.
Last year, IIRC, part of the reasoning behind not making a move, besides cost, was that Luhnow did not believe the team was ready to contend. That is not the case this year and there are clear areas where the team needs improvement, aka the bullpen mostly. I understand the idea of not overpaying for marginal SP upgrades , but what I'm hoping is that they are trying to pry deGrom or Stroman away. I think this team warrants making the Mets and Blue Jays offers they can't refuse. Of course we won't know why some things did or didn't play out, but I do think they are shooting big this time around. Aside from that, if they don't at least get bullpen help then I think that will make some players question the leadership's commitment to taking the next step. Just my opinion.
This discussion is really about people who are risk takers vs risk averse. I'm a risk taker so I would do a deal for DeGrom if possible, even if it meant giving up Martes/Fisher/Tucker. Of course that deal would hurt, but you would have a young ace for yrs to come. Trading for an ace isn't cheap, but paying for one on the FA market is even more expensive. Then I would find out what it takes to get Wilson and probably make that trade too. You have yrs of control if you trade for these guys. I wouldn't trade Whitley in any trade.
Josh innes interviewed Lunhow on 790 this AM. Josh actually had some really good questions. Very blunt I must say about who the Astros were after and what prospects teams are after the most. He mentioned most traction is on Tucker/Martes. Really good stuff.
You guys got me curious about the 2001 ALCS. Outside of Bret Boone (.316), the entire Mariners lineup (that had dbl digit AB's) hit <.225 and hit .211 as a team with a 635 ops. Meanwhile, the Yankees went .264/.802 Its pretty clear that outside of game 3 where the Mariners scored 12 runs, they couldn't hit for ****. And this was a team that went .288/.805 in the regular season. The playoffs definitely are like a second season that sometimes shows no resemblance to the regular season before it. In hindsight, one more arm or one more bat wouldn't have (probably not) made a difference for the 2001 Mariners. https://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/2001_ALCS.shtml
Something I worry about, and fans should maybe consider.. the Astros are the best team in baseball with a very deep & talented system and, overall, a franchise that is setting the template for how to rebuild and (hopefully) sustain success. If I'm a general manager, I'm not sure I'd view them (or, frankly, the Dodgers, who are probably the closest NL corollary to the Astros) in the same light as, say, the Twins or Yankees. Or, frankly, any other MLB team. For instance, no matter who they asked for, Bregman would be the first name out of my mouth and I'd be hard-pressed to move off of him. I think that's likely what happened with Quintana - the White Sox had their eyes on a bigger prize and "settled" for a lesser deal when the Astros wouldn't budge. The Astros are a big fish and any GM worth a damn likely wants a big chunk of what they're building because they all see it has the potential to be mammoth.
