Get er freaking done. Degrom pitched another gem tonight and has a six game win streak with a 1.53 ERA in those last 6 starts. Fulmer or Degrom, I'd not play hardball GM on either. Keuchel, McCullers and one of those two in the playoffs...SI cover wins.
The New Jersey press has really been hyping a deGrom trade to the Astros. Possibly, the Mets front office has planted these stories in an effort to test fan reactions and play up the positive side (for NYM) of such a move. Of course I'm only speculating...
Of course it is a lot to pay, but I'm just saying that's what they requested from the Dodgers so your offer would be light. Now they can always lower their price, but as of now they want a lot
That's funny. I saw a Gray article on an A's fan site and they were throwing around names like Ramon Laureano, Teoscar Hernandez, and Daz Cameron.
Is Fulmer really an "ace"? I get that he's under club control for a while and is a good pitcher but I don't see a number one type guy right now. His strikeout rate is only 6.54 this year and 7 in his career. His SIERA the past two years is 4.03 and 4.31 while his xFIP has been 3.95 and 4.11. So why give up a ton for him when you can give up less for a pitcher just as good if not better in Gray who is also under control beyond this year? I feel somewhat similar in regards to Stroman even though I think he's better than Fulmer. I'd get Gray or go all in for deGrom. I wish Archer was available also but I like deGrom even more than him. And too bad that Gerrit Cole hasn't been dominant for a couple of years. The Cole of a couple of years ago is a bonafide number one.
Kyle Tucker, Martes, Franklin Perez, Jorge Alcala, and another prospect for deGrom. That leaves Fisher to take over LF in the near future and you still have Whitley and Alvarez in your farm to go along with Bukauskas. I'd rather give up Fisher than Tucker but not sure that will be possible when trying to get someone of deGrom's caliber.
Over on the Astros vs. Twins thread, CometsWin and I were discussing possible arms to add to the bullpen and how they compare to the current bullpen staff. The question was raised as to what I'd consider to be a 'playoff-ready' reliever or, put another way, a reliever I'd feel confident to see pitching in the postseason for the Astros. The following criteria are debatable, but these are the eight criteria I used when considering pitchers' suitability for an Astros postseason run: 1. IP should exceed the number of game appearances by at least 10%, i.e., the guy can get 4 to 6 outs if needed 2. WHIP should be <1.10, i.e., limits traffic on the bases 3. xFIP should be <4.00, i.e., projects to have above-average pitching overall – acts as a check on deceptively low ERA 4. GB% should be at least 40% - esp. important in MMP 5. HR/9 should be <1.00, i.e., limits the long ball 6. LOB% should be >70%, i.e., generally succeeds at preventing inherited runners from scoring 7. Strikes swung on and missed (SwStr%) should be at least 12%, i.e. the pitcher has deceptive ‘stuff’ 8. Should have playoff experience
I did not attempt to include all members of the current Astros bullpen - only those members with whom there is some doubt as to their suitability for postseason duty. I am assuming that Harris, Devo, Giles, and Gregerson are beyond reproach here. What we see in the data is that none of the candidates fulfills all 8 criteria, but that four candidates fulfill 7 of them (Hand, Iglesias, Minor, and Swarzak). Of these, all but Iglesias are clearly available and neither Minor nor Swarzak would be expensive. Given their low cost, Minor and Swarzak also represent low-risk opportunities to improve the bullpen. Minor, in particular, has been a nightmare for LHB, who post a wOBA of just .175 against (270 in the case of RHB). Swarzak is not far behind, with a wOBA of .184 against for LHB and .249 for RHB. Hand is rumored to be prohibitively expensive, but there’s no harm in engaging the Padres in a discussion for him. Lunhow has the prospects to acquire him – something not every GM can say. The Reds have shown no sign of wanting to move Iglesias; but, just like asking out the prettiest girl in the class, there’s no harm in inquiring, and sometimes you’ll be pleasantly surprised with the answer. There’s always a chance the Reds will be receptive, particularly if they admire certain Astros prospects who can bring them back more value than Iglesias could alone come 2020 (or whenever the Reds feel they will be competitive again). Two candidates, Givens and Britton, fulfill 6 of the criteria. Both are with Baltimore – a team currently 5 games below .500. Unloading Britton makes a lot of sense for the Orioles now as the players they receive in return would be MLB-ready right around the time Baltimore is playoff-competitive again. There’s no indication they are seeking to move Givens, but there is also no harm in asking about this longshot possibility. It’s conceivable that the Astros and Orioles have significantly different evalutions of Givens and that disparity could form the basis of a trade. Six of the candidates fulfill five of the criteria: Feliz, Hoyt, Sipp, Barnes, Saupold, and Wilson. Wilson nearly meets the HR/9 criterion so you could pretty easily put him in the same category as Britton & Givens. Granted, his xFIP of 3.25 is mighty impressive, but his low GB% worries me that he may not be well-suited to MMP, and he does not have a track record of being able to get more than three outs in a given appearance – something that AJ Hinch has repeatedly said is very important to him. Hoyt projects to be much better in the second half of the season than he was in the first half, and if that turns out to be the case then we ought to see his ERA (4.91) come down to something closer to his FIP of 3.03. While Feliz’s season stats look pretty solid, he has struggled ever since June 7, giving up 11 of his 17 earned runs in that timeframe and allowing opponents an OPS in the neighborhood of .750 – a figure quite inflated from the approx. .650 he maintained in April and May. It will be critical to see Feliz keep his OPS against under the .720 level from now till the end of August, when playoff eligibility becomes a consideration for all players. Tony Sipp is having a rebound year, currently sporting a 3.91 FIP in comparison with last season’s pathetic 6.19 figure. Ironically, while AJ Hinch has often used Sipp against LHB, his splits this year show that he has been somewhat more effective against RHB, who are posting a wOBA against of .265, versus .279 for LHB. Sipp has been inducing ground balls at an excellent rate, and as long as he limits home runs well, he will soon be meeting six of the eight criteria, putting him in the same company as Britton and Givens. Barnes is an interesting pitcher to monitor given his ability to go multiple innings on occasion and really limit base traffic. However, his xFIP data suggest he is due for regression in the second half of the season and, in particular, he will need to induce more ground balls if he is to be suitable for a park like Minute Maid. Saupold, like Barnes, looks due for regression in the second half, but has up to now shown an uncanny ability to limit base traffic and also to prevent inherited runners from scoring. He’s accomplished this in spite of decidedly *not* being a strikeout pitcher. Whether this has been a product more of luck or of skill remains to be seen. Though it’s completely unscientific, I had a premonition earlier this year that an Australian player would be joining the Astros in the near future, so who knows, Saupold could be the guy. Currently there is no indication that the Tigers wish to deal him, but a lot could hinge on how Detroit views its playoff competitiveness over the coming years and what they decide to do with Fulmer and Verlander. Doolittle, Martes, and Musgrove bring up the rear end of our candidate list. All would need to show significant and convincing improvement to deserve a shot at pitching for the Astros in the postseason. Martes and Musgrove will probably be of most value to the organization if they hone their skills in Fresno during the second half, or serve as trade pieces to help obtain players who increase the club’s chances of postseason success. When it’s all said and done, if I am Lunhow, I am probably going to make a strong effort to acquire Brad Hand if I make no trade for a starting pitcher. If I do give up top prospects for somone like deGrom, then I’d focus on acquiring Minor and/or Swarzak to fortify the pen. In any case, I’d look to send Martes and Musgrove back to AAA when possible, unless of course they are included in a trade.
I hope they are really shopping him. A little curious that they are leaking that right now. Smells like they are gauging market and positioning to seriously consider over the winter. Doesn't mean they won't trade him now, but they would really have to be blown away. Good rule of thumb as a fan...take a package we deem acceptable/fair and add/replace one more prospect that really makes it hurt. Lol. But we gotta do whatever it takes. I'll take my own advice...I said earlier in this thread 2 top 50 and a top 100 to get him plus lesser guys. Probably more like 3 top 50 to get him. Martes, tucker, and Whitley. That will make them think pretty hard and will hurt us pretty good.
I think the Astros do not want to trade Tucker because they view him as Springers replacement when he leaves as a free agent in a few years.
As I said...prices will be steep for a "super pen." In today's currency...Paulino (who nobody will take right now, but just trying to compare), Daz, and Musgrove. Replace Paulino with Martes which is ridiculous. They won't get that...but top 50 prospect for sure. No thank you.
The Mets fans seem to think that if deGrom comes to Houston, Cespedes will go with him to unload the salary. The idea being that Cespedes would replace Aoki this season, and Beltran by next season as well. Apparently Cespedes and Gurriel were buds back in Cuba. But I can't see Lunhow wanting to pick up much of Cespedes' salary. Cespedes' .847 OPS would certainly be an upgrade over both Aoki and Beltran, but the opportunity cost in terms of the budget would be huge.
Would love to get Degrom. Would trade Tucker and throw in his brother. Harris going to the DL is a bit concerning, might need a bullpen guy just in case.
Hmm, that's odd. Cespedes is still pretty good so not sure he's a salary-dump player right now. He may not be worth $90M/3yrs, but he could probably get $65M/3yrs pretty easily. So maybe taking back Cespedes reduces the DeGrom package by 1 good prospect. But either way I don't see Houston as willing/able to take back Cespedes and add $90M to the payroll.
