Meh... can always hold onto the big guns in the system and see what ace pries loose later. At this point the Astros could target someone like Alex Cobb at a fraction of the cost and still get similar out put for the remainder of the season, and protect most of the assets.
Not a total shock. The Cubs would likely move Shwarber and others in a deal for Gray. The Cubs realize that they have little starting pitching in their system, that they are going to need 3 new starters (before the Q trade) and that the cost of quality starting pitchers in the off season is going to be insane. The Cubs wont have a whole lot left in their system if they get Gray. Quintana and Gray both are the type of pitchers to benefit from pitching in the AL.
Quintana went for a top 10 and fringe top 100 plus fillers. We can get deGrom for 2 top 50, a top 100, and a couple fillers. I don't know for sure, but I I think that sounds about right. We really just need to hold on to one of fisher/tucker (most immediate need of help in near future) and Bregman (depth is a major factor in how good we are and him in the 8 hole is our biggest depth piece). Everyone else should be in play. Something like Tucker/Fisher, Martes, Whitley/Perez, and a couple fillers...Two of maybe daz, Davis, Moran, or these other scrubs that had a stay in the big leagues and fell on their face (kemp, reed, white, older tucker). We are in position to contend for about 3 years. That should be enough time to recover from that sort of trade.
If I were Luhnow I'd be lining up deals for elite relievers while working the phones trying to pry a good SP that hasn't been listed as available yet. If it gets into the week of the deadline and it doesn't look like he'll be able to get a starter, acquire the relievers to save some face, and save the elite prospects as chips to use in the offseason.
They're operating a lot like a team that won the WS already... and anything short of that is less than palatable. I see a lot of posts here discussing plans on making moves in the off-season, etc. if they don't work out now.... which I suppose is fine, but the goal still very much is to win it all THIS year (and yes, still be good for the near future... which they are set up for as long as their core remains healthy/intact).
Tucker, Martes, Whitley, Daz and Moran is probably about right I'm not a "prospect hoarder" but I don't think I would do that. Sure, we would still have Fisher and Perez and Alvarez and some depth guys, just seems like a dangerous price. Would be tempting, cause Dallas, Lance and deGrom as a playoff rotation with this offense would be damn tough to beat
I see what you are saying...but we gotta understand the "elite chips" change ALL the time. Wasn't that long ago Moran, Reed, Daz, Paulino even were considered big chips. We have what is likely one of the the top 5 or at least 10 teams that anyone will see this century....with staying power. This is our window. Blow a team away and get a significant upgrade. Period.
I would do it. Nice thing is we are in a position where we can offer both a little quality and quantity in our trade proposals. Our farm doesn't have that ONE consensus top 10 prospect in all of baseball...but we have legit depth. My biggest concern would be the move from NL to AL for deGrom. But I feel better that he wouldn't come in as our bonafide ace. He just has to be our number 3.
I'm also thinking that is increasingly likely (i.e. adding 2 very good relievers but no SP's) given that the main goal right now is to build a team that functions well in the playoffs/WS more so than the regular season. In the postseason, Hinch is normally only going to want to let the SP's go 4-5 innings anyway (esp in any WS games we play in an NL park, he will be under pressure to pinch hit for the SP early in the game) so that means we need to have a robust bullpen. A corollary to this way of thinking is that Lunhow will favor relievers who have a track record of going more than one inning. Here are some relievers who come to mind as being guys who regularly get from 4 to as many as 9 outs per appearance and who come with WHIP’s at or under the 1.00 mark. I’ve excluded a few guys from top-contending teams like ARI and COL as those teams would still be in playoff contention even if they were to drop their next 10 games: Chad Green (NYY) 17 G, 33.0 IP, 0.73 WHIP, 1.91 ERA, arb. in 2020, FA in 2023 Adam Warren (NYY) 27 G. 35.2 IP, 0.79 WHIP, 2.02 ERA, 1 year of arb left in 2018, currently earning 2.3 million USD Danny Barnes (TOR) 32 G, 39.0 IP, 0.90 WHIP, 2.31 ERA, rookie year, arb in 2020, FA in 2023 Raisel Iglesias (CIN) 36 G, 42.2 IP, 0.91 WHIP, 1.69 ERA, currently on a 7 year/$27 million contract through 2020, arb in 2021, FA in 2022 Mike Minor (KC) 35 G, 43.1 IP, 0.97 WHIP, 1.87 ERA, currently on a 2 year/$7.25 million contract through 2017 with option for 2018, FA in 2018 Warwick Saupold (DET) 18 G. 31.2 IP, 0.98 WHIP, 1.99 ERA, rookie from Perth, Australia, arb in 2020, FA in 2023 Anthony Swarzak (CWS) 35 G. 41.0 IP, 1.00 WHIP, 2.31 ERA, earning $900,000 this year, FA in 2018 Chase Whitley (TB) 27 G, 39.0 IP, 1.00 WHIP, 3.23 ERA, arb in 2018, FA in 2021 Mychal Givens (BAL) 37 G, 44.0 IP, 1.02 WHIP, 2.25 ERA, arb in 2019, FA in 2022 Of these pitchers, only Minor is a lefty. The Yanks and Rays may well not be sellers at this point, but Pineda’s injury today might change NYY’s thinking; and if the Rays go on a losing streak from now till the end of the month, they may change their thinking on both Whitley and Archer. In the above list, there are some fairly cheap rentals as well as some guys the Astros could control for years to come. My completely unscientific, unsabermetric prediction is that the Astros find a way to get Saupold. Why? I had this weird premonition during spring training that the Stros would acquire a player from the Land Down Under this year. We’ll just have to wait and see…
Some good arms on that list But damn sure none that I want pitching the 5th and 6th inning of a playoff game while Dallas and Lance watch
Two of those guys plus guys probably scouted in the lower levels would be good enough to get DeGrom... we don't know what lower level players teams view as the must get guys as well. I think people will be surprised what we trade to get that ace.
I definitely expect that Hinch will tend to leave Dallas in longer than the other starters. Lance - it will depend on whether he is hitting his spots in the early innings, and whether he is getting into pitch count trouble. But I think where the multiple-inning relievers will be key in the postseason is in a case where guys like Peacock or Fiers or Morton start the games. It's quite likely they will have to do so if the FO foregoes getting a SP. DeGrom is one of those pitchers who has a track record of going 7 innings or so and even being able to pitch a complete game. He'd get the same sort of leash as Keuchel. So if we manage to do a deal for him, the need for a multi-innings reliever goes down considerably.
Sorry but I just see this "super pen" idea as not making much sense. There are really only three things that will upgrade our pen. 1. A lefty, ANY lefty other than Sipp. 2. A bonafide shut down closer. Unfortunately, though, there are only about a handful of them in the entire league and they all play for contenders. Devo just needs to continue to be the man of highest leverage for us. Be it the 6th, 7th, 8th, or 9th innings. 3. A healthy rotation/trade for a SP. Get peacock back in the pen. Fiers too once the postseason starts. Also, I think these bullpen arms will cost more than we think. Super pen seems to be too marginal of an upgrade for what it will cost. A good to dominant/all star bullpen arm like Hand will cost a top 50 prospect plus a filler or two. You guys are proposing two of those? No thanks.
FWIW, Sipp has been outstanding recently. His numbers for the season against lefties are identical to Hand.
So you think the mets would move deGrom for a Quintana package. If you are right we should pull the trigger today I don't think they would trade him for that
Pen arms are so often used in tight game situations that fan bases almost always think their pen is worse than it really is
I have heard that too but haven't looked for myself so I'll take your word. But, watching the games on a nightly basis and I feel like Hinch purposely puts Sipp in low leverage situations often. I dont trust him in the playoffs or in any situation that matters. I don't think anyone here does either.
I just think that we don't necessarily know what teams value outside of our top 10 prospects. Their could be a combination of guys in the top 30 who the Mets or others have their eyes on. I honestly feel like teams would value Alvarez, Martes very highly. I could see Martes, Alvarez, a few other guys as an appealing offer to the Mets. But we don't know.
