A few weeks ago, I would have agreed, but the Astros have done a masterful job running enough irrelevant scrubs out there to eat innings that they haven't really taxed the bullpen like I feared. As it is, unless we're talking about an ace (which doesn't seem available), I think we have two #1s and three or four #3 types (depending on if McHugh comes back), which seems to be plenty for a playoff rotation to me. I'd rather give those guys a shot to finish what they've started, rather than insert a Sonny Gray to perform mostly the same, while trading away key pieces of our future. I've done a 180 on my thoughts on needing a trade, mostly because they've built such a big cushion, which I never expected pre-season or early-season.
That's a fantastic bullpen, but with as many days off as you have in the playoffs, you simply shouldn't be pitching 7 bullpen guys unless your starters are getting blown up or you're pulling guys like Keuchel or McCullers way earlier than needed. I think you're ending up trading away future pieces for guys that don't really improve your playoff team that much in terms of wins and losses. You'd probably end up just pitching Devo, Giles, Harris, etc less, but not really gaining much more effectiveness.
It moved. I'm on this train although the sox will ask for way more than that for Robertson. This would be a Morey type of move.
Well, if you don't have a quality 3rd starter, a deep bullpen can mitigate that. Say Keuchel goes 6 in Game 1, with Hand-Harris-Giles to finish. Then McCullers goes 5, with Gregerson-Devo-Ramos to finish. Then, game 3 you have Morton or McHugh only having to go 3-4 innings, and never having to face the lineup a 3rd time, with Peacock, Robertson, Hand, Harris, and Giles available to handle the 4th-9th innings. And they'd still have Gregerson-Devo-Ramos available for Game 4 behind Keuchel. None of this factors in having McHugh and/or Fiers in reserve, since they wouldn't need their 4th and 5th starters in the playoffs.
I don't know, none of those relievers have all that much surplus value. Robertson has 1 addl year at $13M. Ramos has 1 more arb year at ~$10M. Hand has 2 more years of arbitration. A low grade 55 guy like Moran is worth probably $15M. A 3rd tier guy like Armenteros is probably worth ~$10M. Is there $25M in surplus value left in Robertson? If any of those hypotheticals are light, it's probably the Hand deal; might have to sub out Laureano for somebody a little better, maybe C Perez. I would not be surprised at all if this is the route Luhnow ended up taking. Hell, he could probably make all those deals AND still get a guy like Gray.
In playoffs, starters will likely be seeing third time through the order less as they likely giving closer to maximum effort. My guess is Keuchel is only starter to see 6th inning in playoffs. If Astros could get Chapman and Miller, they would add them.
I don't want my ace pitchers going 6 and 5 innings, though. And our #3's should be much better than going 3 or 4 innings. It's not like hitters suddenly know how to hit better in the playoffs. If they are pitching to the capabilities, our aces should still be trying to go 7 innings like they do now. Our 3 and 4 pitchers should still be trying to go 5 or 6. In 2015, our starters made it into the 6th inning in 5 of the 6 playoff games. Not sure what is normal, but I don't think most teams only run their starters out there for 5 innings, playoffs or not. You're still playing the same game. I don't want Keuchel or McCullers throwing any differently in the playoffs than they do in their successful regular seasons, really. You might add some velocity, and mess up your control or movement.
Game is changing slowly. Astros this year have played a lot like playoffs in short stints with inferior pitchers to make them seem average.
Certainly - but those inferior pitchers hopefully won't be pitching in the playoffs. And last year's Cubs pitchers generally went past 5 innings as well in the playoffs, so unless the game is changing very quickly, if no Astro pitcher except Keuchel makes it into the 6th inning in this year's playoffs, I'd bet money that we didn't do well in the playoffs.
FWIW the Dodgers are likely to take this route. They are going to target as many elite bullpen arms to add. Jeff Passan said the Dodgers are looking at adding at least 2 and possibly 3 with an emphasis on dominant arms and will bleed their system to do so.
Word is the Padres asked for Verdugo in a trade for Hand. For reference, BA has Verdugo ranked at 35 and Law has him at 12. I'm gonna say they won't take that deal
Thank goodness they play again tomorrow.....this all star break has been excruciating....I miss my (practically) daily fix of the stros......
The dodgers have had some poor starting pitching efforts in the playoffs. I'm with the others that starting pitching has to be more productive come playoff time. Bullpen guys who may be rolling now, tend to regress with every AB leverage no matter what the inning.
Jon Heyman saying the 'Stros would be interested in Zach Britton if the O's make him available (a ton of other teams would be interested as well).
I think a guy to keep an eye on is Marcus Stroman. The Jays play the next ten games on the road (3@ Detroit, 4@ Boston, and 3@ Cleveland). If they don't play better (and fall further down in the standings) there's a good chance they start tearing it down and become sellers. Stroman has three more years of ARB after this season, and thus it's going to take a nice package to get him.
I think there's about an 90% chance that Houston makes a significant trade. Handicapping the options: Gray 30% Relievers 20% DeGrom 10% Stroman 5% Cole 5% Other (Cueto, Verlander, Samardzija, etc.) 20%
