I think you're undervaluing him as his profile prior to this year was an average defensive 3B with middling power. He's always had a good hit tool and found 25-30HR power with the flyball revolution. Major league ready prospects with 60 hit tool with 55-60 power tool are highly valued. If he put up the numbers last year that he is this year he would be a top 100 prospect in baseball.
The price is what you can get. The Boston deal and the Cubs deal are no longer available. I don't know how those teams value Moran, Fisher, or Martes, so I definitely can't say that would be enough. I doubt it would be, because they have to think they could get that type of deal in the offseason or next deadline, but for all I know they are really high on those guys.
That's the thing, a publication may put a certain number on a guy but that don't mean organizations view them the same way. We know most teams would be really high on Tucker, Martes and probably Whitley. The rest probably have a wide range of differing views on them.
I hope that is wrong too Truth is there is a lot higher chance of that ending up the case than most on here realize
Brewers if they keep playing well, but think they will go after different pitchers than Astros. Dodgers...if they are, they would likely compete with Astros (I'm not very familiar with their prospects). Yankees..I don't see them dealing Torres so I don't see them as a threat. Not sure what the Rockies will do.
Obviously all the top prospects aren't going to pan out, but there is a ton of reason for optimism that several turn into quality players. Not to mention the end result doesn't matter so much. The bottom line is that right now Tucker has much, MUCH higher trade value than a backup/replacement player. I would argue Martes, Moran, and Fisher do too.
So you are not willing to give them up because you don't view what is available as Ace quality, but if that's what it took to get Quintana, what makes you think we could get an ace for what we have? And its not that Morton is so far behind, but we literally don't have half our starters due to injury. I would bet heavier on another pitching injury by playoffs than I would Tucker or Martes being a star.
And if he put up those sorts of number 2-3 years ago, he'd already be an all-star in the big leagues! He may certainly be a late bloomer... certainly may have a Morgan Ensberg-like career arc (which is just fine)... not every all-star was a phenom at age 21. However, in the case of what teams look to acquire for established stars... Moran doesn't headline any sort of deal (anymore). In this case, the Astros are better off keeping him around as depth in case one of their regulars goes down. I don't think he'll be a deal-breaker, nor do I think he'll sweeten the deal enough to brew enticement.
#1 No, I am not giving up Tucker and Martes for ANY of the pitchers expected to be on the market. If a true ace becomes available, I would gladly go beyond even Tucker and Martes. Quintana and Gray are not true aces. #2 There are only so many teams in the market for pitching. There will be a number of pitchers available, and the difference between the best (Quintana) and someone in the middle (Cobb) isn't great for the remained of this season. The Astros are likely to be able to get a comparable pitcher for 2017 at a cost less than Tucker and/or Martes.
The Astros are currently in 1st and crushing the league. The right move truly may be to stand pat. If a formula existed and told you they have a 25% chance of winning the WS now and 28% if they trade away their 2 most significant future assets, I'd say stand pat and go with the 25%. However, if they don't make a trade for a significant piece and do anything short of winning it all, Luhnow will be crushed for not pulling the trigger on something. Even if it was the right move. Which is a rough position for him to be in...but interesting.
Based on various prospect rankings, guys rated similarly to him bust about 13-33% of the time. In a quick look over the last 11 years, I could only find two busts from guys that did what Tucker is doing in the Texas League while not able to drink legally. 1 died in a car accident. The other signed a 10 million dollar deal before joining the MLB team. There were probably about 20-25 names (e.g. Trout, Correa, Rasmus, Hosmer) through the different years. So, I'd guess there is about 20% chance he'll bust, but probably a higher chance that he's an above average regular.
Health and return to form of the injured players (i.e. - Keuchel) will go a long way towards being super-aggressive or just aggressive enough. If the neck flares up... even if Keuchel ends up pitching through it... I'll expect them to up the ante. They're not going to overpay... but they're also not going to just go with what they have, minus their injured best, and see what happens.
The formula for winning in the regular season isnt exactly the same as for playoff series(s). A strong 1-3 TOR SP is more important. Right now, we have no #1 and no clear #3 (although we have some combinations and guys who could work there.
"Right now". How much does Keuchel coming back healthy change your opinion on what they need? Granted, health isn't a given... for anybody (or any playoff team)... but lets just presume that Keuchel's inflammatory neck disorder gets fixed with a 3 month break from throwing. And lets also presume that McHugh has no further set-backs after a 6 month break. At that point, do the Astros have enough starting pitching to make a deep playoff run?
So let's assume your numbers are correct.... 20% bust and let's say 25% chance he is a star....leaves 55% that he is a contributing MLB player but nothing special If correct, is that 25% enough to keep us from going after a guy who could fit in the top 3 of our rotation? To me, with us being the best team in the AL if not all of baseball, I'm ok moving that 25% chance if I can get who I like for the rotation We are a hard fan base to convince to move prospects, we went several years with nothing else to follow other than prospects
What will change my opinion is getting another TOR SP. Presuming anything regarding future health is guesswork. Honestly, Keuchel and McCullers worry me some. The entire SP playoff picture worries me due all our 1-3 SP options having health issues. Sure, everyone could come back in full health. Maybe not. We just cant know. But an insurance TOR is called for and needs to happen.
