Altuve & Correa are future HOFers. I think the team has to do everything they can to keep those guys for life. It would be nice to keep Springer, Keuchel, & LMJ, but that just isn't going to happen. My gut has been that Keuchel and Springer will be gone.
I know they have one more yr of ARB for Keuchel, however IMO this is what I would do if possible. Sign DK to a 4 yr deal after this season (this is obviously dependent on no further health issues). You have NO chance to win a WS without great pitching, and as we're seeing not only are TOR guys hard to find but guys like DK are even harder. Offer him a 4 yr 120 mil contract (this way he's locked up through '21) and it's off the books when Correa becomes a FA. I'd also offer Altuve a 5 yr contract after the '18 season (even though he'd have one more yr on his contract). Offer him 125 mil. They'd have the following core locked up through '20: Gurriel Altuve Correa Bregman Reddick Springer DK LMJ Jake Giles Devo Peacock *You'd have your entire infield signed except a catcher and you'd have at least 2 of the 3 in the OF (with Jake coming off the bench--possibly Tucker as the other). You'd also have DK and LMJ at the top of your rotation (need to fill out 3,4 & 5). You'd have Giles, Devo, and Peacock in your pen (Peacock could also potentially fill one of the BOR spots). This gives them a window of this yr, '18, '19 & '20 to try and win it all. You'd have the following core locked up in '21 to build around: Altuve Correa Bregman DK LMJ Devo As much as it pains me to say this I would have to let Springer walk after the '20 season when he becomes a FA. With DK coming off the books after the '21 season we'd be able to make Correa a nice offer. One thing they'd have to deal with is opening Pandora's box offering DK and Altuve major contracts with one yr of ARB left. As it's been pointed out they can't pay all of these guys. They have a good 4-5 yr window to try and win it all. For a franchise that has never won a WS they need to be all in while they have such a great core.
Sorry but there's a 0% chance Keuchel takes 4 years and Altuve 5. Absolute minimum FA deal Keuchel will take is 6 years and Altuve 7, and even that is probably low balling it. Assuming continue health/performance, I think Keuchel will shoot for $200M/7yrs, and probably end up with $180/6, with an opt out after 3 or 4. Altuve is easily going to be a $200M+ player after 2019, my rough guess right now is $270M/12yrs with an opt out after 4.
Correa and Altuve should end their careers as the greatest double-play combo in the history of the game. Pay them, and let the rest sort itself out.
pay springer over anything btw correa and altuve dont turn that many double plays, they aint biggio and bagwell
We are definitely screwed on Springer. He's arguably just as good as Harper and he's going to get $400 mil
Springer has been an elite player for half a season, let's let him repeat this year (or at least finish this one) before we go making outlandish proclamations. He's also gonna be 31 before he hits free agency. People really need to quit worrying about Springer, Correa and McCullers. The amount of things that could happen to those players, and this franchise, between now and payday are impossible to count. Keuchel on the other hand is a more prescient issue. If DK can continue to be awesome I would be fine offering him a 6 year, Scherzer type contract, preferably front loaded if possible so we can pay him while the rest of the teams payroll is still low. A front line pitcher is irreplaceable in the playoffs, and winning in October should be our primary concern for the next few years. Position players can be replaced in the aggregate if you have to lose one of the big position players.
Did you live through last off-season? The market wasn't giving those will deals. Considering Keuchel's injuries last year and this, he isn't getting a deal that big. Altuve deal won't go that long, but it should be over $200M and maybe $300M. Harper is a lot younger than Springer.
Harper hits free agency two years earlier than Springer will, so it's effectively a 5 year difference (of prime years) when comparing - that's why teams will be willing to go for a much longer deal with him than they would with Springer.
Springer will be 31 when he hits free agency. Harper will be 26. Harper will be entering his prime ages, while Springer will be leaving them.
