I agree. I'm sure Atlanta is just price checking to see if the sellers market is so hot that they can get a ridiculous price. They're trying to contend starting next season so it doesn't make sense to trade Teheran right now unless they get an offer they can't refuse.
Thinking more on this, unless Cole, DeGrom, or Stroman really are available, it's got to be Gray or Quintana, with Santana being a dark horse. Teheran isn't pitching well enough to warrant giving up a big package for, and he probably isn't all that available given that Atlanta aims to contend next year. Verlander and Cueto come with financial strings that Houston probably doesn't want to absorb. The Rangers won't trade Darvish to Houston, and the Astros have been very reluctant to take on rentals. Samardzija and Volquez probably don't represent a significant upgrade over what they already have. Hopefully DeGrom or Stroman really are available, as they are true aces imho. But if it ends up being Quintana or Gray I'll still be happy, especially if they don't give up Tucker.
Pretty sure Atlanta would jump on any deal with Perez for Teheran if Atlanta decides to trade him. Even with injuries, I don't see Astros giving up anything for Teheran unless they think he can pitch relief.
So you think a package close to what the Red Sox gave for Sale is what would be reasonable for the Astros to give up for Stroman. Stroman is a good solid MOR pitcher, nowhere close to Sale's league. The Astros would not agree to this type of package for Quintana, who even in a bad year so far is still better than Stroman, so I would be very surprised if they would entertain this for Stroman.
I would give up Fisher/Martes. My 2 favorite pitching prospects are F. Perez/Whitley. Although I will admit there are many on this MB that know much more about the minor league system than I do.
From? Sounds like fun fan speculation. But I'd do that in a heartbeat. I understand that Machado becomes a free agent in 2019 and is struggling thus far this season, but elite talent is elite talent. An IF of Machado/Correa/Altuve/Yuli is unfair.
All good buddy. I assumed so, as I prefaced my response with it was probably fun fan speculation. Still a fun mental exercise.
That all depends on your valuation of Bregman, Martes, Morton. Given youth, contract status and depth, I would not have taken that offer if I were Luhnow.
Sure, and I wouldn't necessarily blame you for saying no. When he is on his game, I value Machado a top 10 player in the entire league. Even if they reach their potential ceilings, I see neither Bregman nor Martes near that top tier of players (and I like Martes more than most). So although you probably get more overall value over the next 5 years, I rather take the higher immediate value from Machado for the next year and a half, and improve my chances of winning it all this year and next. You could also argue that it would be better to use our potential trade assets (like Bregman and Martes) to nab a cost-controlled ace like Archer, and that 3.5 years of Archer is overall better than 1.5 years of Machado. And that is a very interesting decision in my opinion, and I would probably lean Archer, as I think our offense would be just fine with Marwin playing 3B everyday, if that meant our rotation would be: Keuchel, McCullers, Archer, Morton, and McHugh.
A year and a half of Machado is worth Bregman/Martes? Machado is good but I think he is a bit overrated. Sub 800 career OPS. Bregman has been a better player offensively this season, is way younger and way cheaper. And why the hell would the Orioles want Morton?
If Machado were signed long term I'd make the trade, but giving up Bregs/Martes for a year and a half of a player at a position we don't really need is a painful cost.
Yes, in my opinion, 1.5 years of Machado is better than the next 5 years of Bregman/Martes. I already said that. "Sub 800 career OPS" doesn't really say the whole story, as his first 3 years lower that average, when he was 19, 20, and 21. Phrasing it like that also diminishes his last 2 full seasons, where he hit 35 and 37 HRs, with an OPS of .861 and .876, respectively. He's also just 25 years old (turned 25 yesterday coincidentally). He's certainly having a down year, but we are trading for what he will give us for the next 1.5 years, not what he's already done this year. Put him in the middle of our stacked lineup, and I think we see those elite numbers that he produced the last 2 seasons. And maybe the Orioles want Morton because they could flip him for even more assets? Morton is signed for another year at below market value, and if he comes back and pitches like he was before his injury, is definitely a valuable asset.
Usually teams that need starting pitching, don't trade a starter plus their best prospect in order to swap 3B and take the one having the worse year...that don't happen a lot
Not a smart deal for the Astros. We are giving up the best prospect in baseball from last season in Bregman who is now succeeding at the major league level and could end up hitting 40 doubles in his first full major league season along with good plate discipline. On top of that we have more control of him and is much cheaper than Machado. Then you want to give up probably the 2nd best RHP prospect just behind Alex Reyes in Martes. Martes with already 2 successful starts in less than a handful of outings at age 21. Both are contributing to the team at young ages and the most crazy thing about it all, Machado is having a worse year than Bregman. We are down grading immediately with that trade on a playoff team. At the very least Martes can contribute in the bullpen with 2 power pitches in the playoffs. No, but thank you for the offer.
