Is that how sports science works overworking players over the course of a season and then using them slightly less (doubt they just stop pitching) cures everything at the end of September? You might not see the effects now (but we did last night) but it well known a pen that is overworked throughout the season can be big trouble in October.
I'm as guilty as anyone of not seeing the big picture Having such a large lead in the standings gives Hinch the luxury to: 1. Keep more valuable members of the pitching staff from being overused 2. put unproven/inexperienced players (especially pitchers) in live game situations. This is good for both player development and for evaluation. That being said, since Yankees are closest to Houston in the standings, you would think Hinch would go with his most reliable performers in this series.
The problem is, we have evaluated Hoyt enough. If you put him in during high-leverage situations, he gives up grand slams. So let's stop doing that, please.
And what part of them taking time off after clinching did you not understand? The solution for being overworked is rest. Arms typically do bounce back after a 1-2 week rest period.
Luhnow really needs to make a trade for a top notch starter so Peacock can move back to the bullpen. Having Devo/Peacock/Harris able to go multiple innings is very important to not overworking the bullpen. If it were me I would bring up Comer to replace Hoyt. Good news is NMorton will be back soon. Would y'all keep Martes/Paulino in the rotation and move Peacock to the bullpen once Morton makes it back?
Luhnow really needs to make a trade for a top notch starter so Peacock can move back to the bullpen. Having Devo/Peacock/Harris able to go multiple innings is very important to not overworking the bullpen. If it were me I would bring up Comer to replace Hoyt. Good news is NMorton will be back soon. Would y'all keep Martes/Paulino in the rotation and move Peacock to the bullpen once Morton makes it back?
I would. Not that I think Martes and Paulino are better, just that our situation allows for some on the job training for 2 prospects that may be very good for us down the line. Neither one is likely to impact the 2017 team in a postseason run. Peacock on the other hand is almost a guarantee to be in the pen by the postseason, a role in which he may be able to help us a ton. I would like to start seeing him in regular high leverage relief situations now than just assume he will be able to handle it later. Great results in other situations don't always translate to great high leverage results. Him as a starter is a bullpen killer, him as Devo 2.0 would be a bullpen savior.
Because maybe I don't necessarily believe your claim? Extensive wear and tear over a season is all wiped away by 1 - 2 weeks of rest we don't know they will get or how extensive it will be? Ok. I guess I'm just crazy and your starters averaging 5 innings (if that) for 6 weeks won't have any negative effect upon your bull pen come October ..... Maybe you are not concerned... I think it's a real concern for Hinch and the organization though.
Tell me who you believe is currently being exposed to "extensive wear and tear". Devo has an arm that was previously well versed to starting. Certainly, if you can avoid pitching him multiple days in a row for multiple innings, you do.... but he's the only arm that's remotely close to having to be overly protected. As it is, everybody here complains when any game is possibly ruined by the non-Devo/Harris/Giles bullpen guys. And, 1-2 weeks was an exaggeration... realistically, this division is going to be wrapped up a good 1-2 months in advance of the post-season. Certainly, teams would not want their starters only going 5... but if you have a 10+ game lead in the division, you can get away with a helluva lot more once rosters expand in September.
Since June 18, in the Astros' past 12 games, only once has a Houston starter lasted through the sixth. Correspondingly, the Astros have used their 'pen for 3 1/3 innings or more in each game since. The bullpen stretched through 103 1/3 innings during 27 games in June, averaging approximately 3.8 innings per game. Houston finished the month 16-11, partially at the expense of limited fresh arms. "These guys are doing the best they can," Hinch said. "They all have pitched a ton. Obviously, I'm trying not to use the back-end guys unless it's their role, and that puts a lot of pressure on Feliz, Hoyt and Guduan. We had a couple guys not available again tonight. We're trying our best to navigate the rest and taking care of them while also competing. "When you're asking these guys to absorb four or five innings a night, it'll catch up to you." http://m.astros.mlb.com/news/article/239808444/outfielder-norichika-aoki-pitches-for-1st-time/
Who specifically are you most concerned about? Obviously, they're making conscious efforts to not overuse any one individual. SOme games, they get away with it. Some games, they lose and everybody complains about who was used.
The plan in spring training was to have a rotation going into the season of: DK, LMJ, McHugh, Morton & Musgrove. So who would have thought at the halfway point they'd have the best record in baseball (54-27) and doing this with McHugh missing roughly 16 starts, DK 5, LMJ 2, Morton 6, and JM 2 (31 of 81 starts). Pretty damn incredible!!!!
Arms themselves may or may not bounce back. But if you're overworked, you're also likely going to do all sorts of other bad things like screw up your mechanics, lose confidence and on and on if you're getting bad results. Whether you can fix that with a couple of weeks of rest is a total unknown. The goal should be to not overwork people, rather than to overwork them and then hope they can fix themselves with some rest.
Sure.... the theoretical risks of an arm being on the brink of collapsing/injured ALWAYS exists... hence why the Astros will be perpetually careful on pitch counts for LMJ (as people advocated for him to be "left in" yesterday), and now Kuechel. I just don't see which bullpen arms are truly even close to raising this sort of concern. As of one game ago, it was being discussed how the Astros have the potential to rely on 6 bullpen arms at any given critical situation... and how that was a luxury of depth that most teams can't afford. Most teams also don't have a 12+ game lead to play with. Anybody who thinks starters going 5 is a "good" thing is ridiculous... of course it needs to be better. But as they're going through this rough period, they're doing about as well as they possibly can. No single arm is truly being used more than it should... and they're still gaining ground in the standings. If they can't get better starting pitching back from injury, they're going to need to be making trades. None of this is debatable.... everybody is in in agreement that they need to make moves for more arms.
Yes, and that's largely because we are not putting in the big guns every game and letting guys like Hoyt/Guadan/etc pitch lots of meaningful innings and lose games here and there. I think that's OK. But if Hinch put in Giles/Harris/Devo all the time to protect every close game, they'd be overworked badly.
You are over-estimating how many "meaningful" innings those lesser guys are getting. Every loss this team has is magnified... because they've won so damn much, and every loss literally stands out.
