[ClutchFans] Podcast: On the Rockets draft and their goal of a superteam in Houston

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I was hoping y'all would talk about the weird vibe that Bev's been giving off in his interviews and tweets acting like he's already a goner. Do you think it's just Bev being weird or he's actually been given indication that he's moving?

@Clutch @BimaThug

 

Thanks for responding, Clutch. I can definitely see that, but from what I recall his Fox 26 interview was the weirdest. It was pretty early on in the Rockets CP3 interest, but way he just mentioned a possible trade unprompted I got the vibe he knew something more than what was reported in the media. Maybe the Rockets asked him if he had a destination preference? I don't know, I guess he could just be seeing what we're all seeing in the media but that interview definitely raised my eyebrow.

 

16 minutes in.

Rockets are a legit championship contender without GSW in the league. "Should have" beat San Antonio.

Why you guys look past what actually happened? They lost to a Spurs team without its best player, its veteran leader, and a 2nd best player that team now wouldn't mind trading for basically cap room.

In the realm of woulda/coulda/shoulda... there's the Rockets should have lost to the Clippers in 6, which really should have happened, and then there's the Rockets should have beaten the Spurs last year in the playoffs... which absolutely "should" have happened, but was nowhere close to happening really.

 

BT: I'd give them a C+, maybe B-. That's more about my expectations. The room was not as receptive to IH than Rockets picks in the past. I'm warming up to that pick. With his upside, in the middle of the 2nd, it's a good prospect. If they're able to stash him, you have nice talent & someone who won't take up cap space & draft rights will be a potential trade asset. My grade gets lowered was their inability to get a better pick. They're getting the worst of Memphis' three 2nd round picks. It'll likely be worse than 45. I ding them there. I do like what they're doing though. Draft & stash and asset to the team.

C: 45th pick, good chance they traded a dollar for 95 cents or even less next year. That didn't matter to me as much as I was disappointed they missed on Jordan Bell. That pick was acquired by the Warriors for straight up cash, cash the Rockets could've offered themselves. He was the one guy I wanted. ... These are 2nd round picks, long shots, but this was a deep draft. In a few years, we may look back & say IH is the better player of any of these guys but Jordan Bell, he's not Draymond but has qualities on one side of the floor to give you what Draymond could. This is the future of the league. You need guys who can switch & play anyone. He's a high motor guy. Good athleticism. Not much of an offensive game but will throw down dunks, cut to the basket, get offensive boards. Defensively, he's terrific. Can guard 1-5. I was disappointed. To go to Golden State of all teams, that upset me most. For standing pat, they did fine.

BT: That Jordan Bell pick did go for cash. ($3.5M) Golden State saved their money. Just so happened the Rockets also had their $3.5M. ... Another mitigating factor is they did end up getting good undrafted free agents. ...

...

C: We know they always chase stars but had a good rebound season. Warriors are on another level. Rockets are right there but the gap between Houston & Golden State is enormous. You're seeing a league wide panic. They're heading south or trying to figure out how to contend. Rockets are hoping for Chris Paul & Paul George, among other names thrown around. It starts with Chris Paul. Only thing I can tell you is it seems very much like the chase of Dwight Howard in 2013. There's something that gives the Rockets a strong confidence they'll get Chris Paul. They're almost operating as if that's going to happen but we need steps 1-2-3 to happen first. That's what they're hoping for. Acquire George, sign Paul. How can Houston pull that off?

BT: I don't care how confident they are. We've seen near misses. I was celebrating the Bosh signing in 2014. Who knows if they have any assurances from CP3. When a player like that is willing to sign, you make it happen. I understand Harden makes it awkward fit but having two of the top five ballhandlers, you make that work. You work on the fit later. Rockets have nowhere enough cap room to sign Paul. His max is a little over $34.5M. The most cap room without trades or stretching salary is $9.7M. Rumors have the Rockets shopping Beverley, Anderson & Williams. I think they're trying to move off those salaries. You can get a first for Beverley. You can get a decent 2nd for Lou Williams. Anderson, that's gonna be tougher but might be able to find a taker for him like Sacramento. They want after him last year. Rockets paid $20M because the Kings were after him, offering him that much. Kings can use a stretch four. Kings strike me as one example to trade Anderson to. They have to feel confident they can move him. None of this happens without moving him.

C: We saw a couple deals & how pricey they were to move. Mozgov is dead weight. Hawks had to take Plumlee back. Moving big contracts signed last summer might be harder than we think.

BT: Maybe it takes you assets you get from Beverley and/or Lou Williams to flip Anderson. I'm not the biggest Anderson fan. I think he does have value in today's NBA. His presence was a big component of Harden having the year he had. Anderson helps you space the floor. Harden got better with more space to work with. That has value in the league. There's not many 6'10 shooters like Anderson. I'm not trying to be the used car salesman here but I think he has more value than some of the other guys you mentioned.

C: Eric Gordon to Indiana for George. I've struggled with this. Only reason to be in the ballpark is the rental threat. George is the guy I want to add to this team. He'd fit like a glove. How do you acquire him? Take me through what the Rockets would have to do to get CP3 & George.

BT: Let's assume you can move Anderson & Williams. That should be just enough to get you CP3.

C: Beverley & Williams interchangible?

BT: No, Anderson & Bev doesn't get you all the way there. Hypothetically Anderson & Williams, that gets you right there for Chris Paul. You sign Chris Paul. ... Almost impossible to use more cap room for another free agent. George is one they'll go after hard. That's the only way to add that 3rd star. It'd need to be via trade. Gordon would be the salary based center piece. Gordon will make shy of $13M. Gordon & Dekker would get you there or Gordon, Harrell & Onuaku. For Indiana, is that enough? Probably not. That's where Beverley would come in, maybe Ariza. I think they'd like to hold onto Ariza in this scenario. If Beverley can get you a first, you can send that Indiana for George and/or one of the Rockets own first. If you can offer Gordon, Dekker & two firsts, that's something Indiana has to listen to.

C: I struggle with the idea of how will they get picks for players when the main asset back is cap space. I guess Omer Asik was somewhat similar. ... Beverley, there's probably a contract dispute there & is eligble for an extension. I don't think that's being offered. He probably does want to be moved. Maybe he's moved out for a bad contract & get a first in that trade. That's the only way I can see Houston netting a first rounder.

BT: I think he has one of the best non-rookie scale & non-max contracts in the entire league. He makes $5.5M next year. He's a starting caliber PG with elite defense for $5.5M. The MLE this summer is $8.4M. You're getting him for below average role player money. In 2018-19, he's making $5M flat non-guaranteed. He's an absolute steal at that salary & more than one team would give up a first for him. Not top 10 but a playoff team with cap room would certainly part with a first.

 

C: Can the Rockets make a trade for George? They have to clear cap space & gain assets to flip for George. Yet, the order of things will be interesting.

BT: We talked about Gordon & Dekker. An alternative, depending on how much they like Dekker, you could trade Gordon & Beverley in a 3-way trade where the 3rd team getting Beverley sends a first to Indiana.

C: Rockets looking to copy 2007-08 Celtics. Warriors are insane though. It's tough to see the Rockets with that incredible lineup knocking off the Warriors.

BT: No one is easily knocking off the Warriors. I like the attitude & strategy. Every year, ideally you have 30 teams competing for a championship. We know that's not true in reality. Next year & maybe year after, so many teams giving up & rebuilding, now the competition is thinning out as far as contenders. You never know what happens in this league. Something could happen. I thought the Warriors were sure fire to win last year. They blew a 3-1 lead. ...

C: The NBA has to come up with a rival to an insanely, young talented team. There will be another superteam formed.

BT: You might as well try. ...

C: George trade is a long shot. Boston, if they want George, they'll be able to have him. It appears that Ainge wasn't willing to part with these assets for Butler. Hard to see him doing it for George.

BT: On Boston's part, I know Ainge has been reluctant to deal his top assets but some of this could be timing related. They'll go hard after Hayward & Griffin. It's in the best interest to ...order of operations. Use cap room for FA & then make a trade. Boston's preference would be FA comes, they get Hayward & then make a trade for Paul George. Maybe if they're successful in FA, Ainge might be willing to part with their more valuable assets & nothing the Rockets can do about that.

C: If you get a Chris Paul & bring in Paul George, maybe you do trade your 2018 pick or a future pick. I'm always reluctant to do that. If you're adding those guys, you'll have a chance to re-sign George & will have Paul/Harden under contract.

BT: One aspect not touched on FA is the first moment they can, they'll offer another extension to Harden. If they do, Harden will be with the team for the remainder of his prime. If so, maybe they'd feel better about trading a 2020 pick. A prime Harden, declining Paul is probably still enough to be drafting in the teens at worst.

C: The fact CP3 is their #1 target is fascinating. Didn't think he was an ideal fit & didn't think he would consider Houston an ideal fit for his services. Rockets have Harden who led the league in assists, you ran an entire year where you made him PG and you're potentially adding one of the very best PG ever in Chris Paul. How will that work? You're gonna see two guys numbers who will go down. Will they accept that? If they're losing, will there be finger pointing about who should be controlling the offense? What will we see if they bring in CP3?

BT: Ty Lawson experiment has soured people to the point where there are big doubts about adding Paul. Chris Paul is not Ty Lawson. I was excited about the Lawson trade but unlike Lawson, Paul is an elite defensive player. He's contributing in other ways without the ball. Paul would be the primary ball handler. D'Antoni can stagger their minutes. I think you just make it work. Yeah, there can feathers ruffled but if you want any chance to contend, you have to take the risk.

C: I've been against it. Thought it was wasted value as far as max contract but heard some arguments that are convincing. What you have is not good enough so throw something different. This league is about playmakers. We've seen several teams that they're not effective when their star goes out. You gotta have a playmaker at all times. And the ability to have two guards who are super threats. Both are pretty good shooters from 3pt range. If Paul was willing to come, he knows what he's signing up for. Hopefully both would be willing to sacrifice.

BT: In addition to being a good 3pt shooter, he's an elite mid-range shooter. One big complaint about the Rockets in the playoffs was while the Rockets offense in the regular season worked, teams in a 7-game series can gameplan for that. It helps to have someone besides James who is allowed to even attempt a midrange jumper. If you have players very good at those shots, that diversifies the offense.

C: We'll see. Paul George is a huge question mark. Fact a trade isn't done yet is somewhat promising. They've made Chris Paul a top target. Something is giving them strong confidence of getting him. Rockets had a great season but the reality is that ending will overshadow & stick with the Rockets for awhile. I know two season ticket holders who said they're not renewing because they were so turned off by game six. It's unfortunate but the way it goes. They're gonna have to rebuild some faith with fans. The way they crashed & burn was so unfortunate. I love that they think big. Fans tear them down because they've failed quite a bit but they always go for it. Nothing wrong with going for the big fish. I personally believe they'll getting Chris Paul. Anything beyond that is a question mark. If you get Harden & Paul, you'll attract other guys on the cheap. We're seeing players flock to the Warriors. If you're able to get that 2nd star here, you may see Carmelo get bought out & wants to come to Houston or others who get bought out later. Who wouldn't with two unselfish guys. Who do you think, if they're able to clear cap space, who do they try to get if not Paul George?

BT: Guy that comes to mind is Paul Millsap. ... He is in his early 30s & taking the risk the back end of the contract could be bad. New Hawks GM has openly admitted they're willing to entertain S&T for Millsap. Other teams probably wouldn't. ... Depending how much he wants, it would be pretty hard to get enough salary to match. The fact that avenue is open to you, ...you probably don't have any method to get that 3rd star otherwise could be intriguing to the Rockets. One motivating factors going after Millsap is a guy you could get via S&T.

C: So hard to tell what Atlanta wants to do. He's going to command a big salary but what will ATL expect in return? Probably should've rebuilt a year ago. We'll see. Another exciting FA period. Fans are feeling they won't be fooled again but they have big visions, big plans. I was disappointed with the draft but via FA, they can quickly erase a disappoint of the 2nd round. We'll see. I know they're aiming for big fish here.

 

I wonder are there any teams out there that would be willing to give him an extension if they acquired him? I don't know about the wisdom of giving an extension to anyone other than a star.

 

Wait, did @Clutch say "I personally believe they'll be getting Chris Paul"

 

I am confused on why no time was spent on our clear intent to pursue Ricky Rubio

 

Right, same here.

They were better than San Antonio. They took a gut punch loss and then essentially quit. What all went into why they quit we'll never know, but they did. I knew it was going to happen as well. Called it on the BBS exactly the way it went down. The mental strength wavered and it was over. Hell, the San Antonio team that won the clinching game was basically a lottery team.

 

Thanks, large!

 

No major concerns about chemistry and or fit of Paul George with Harden?

Thanks guys!! Draft was indeed disappointing, glad you guys see it too.

 

Thanks Clutch. And yes, I mean obviously its opinion based!! Since we can't know for sure. Just seems like the Spurs, who still without Parker, still with an LMA they want to move, and still with a gimpy Kawhi, who went up double digits on the Warriors for 2.5 quarters, are a tier above.

I have my tiers like this, assuming everyone is healthy:

Tier 1 = GSW
Tier 2 = Cavs, Spurs
Tier 3 = Rockets, Celtics, Clippers (if kept together and healthy), Jazz

Bear in mind the Rockets were 12-8 in February. They were 11-9 in January. Which means they finished the season 24-18 (1-1 in March before playoffs started... 42 games so almost exactly half the season), which is a 46-47 win rate over 82 game season.

They were a different team the second half of the season. We all saw that. Is it right to value the 2nd half more than the first half? I don't know. Seems like it. I mean its more recent. And its the same way the 2nd half of the game and 4th quarter and last 5 minutes and last minute, etc. "mean" more.

I feel like in the crash and burn of Game 5/6 against the Spurs... it's kind of overlooked that the Rockets were basically a different team, a clear tier below that tier with SAS, Cleveland (especially playoff Cleveland), the second half of the season.

 

Keep up the gord work @Clutch

DESERVES its own thread easily