I've survived the '86 Mets, Nolan in a Rangers uniform, Kevin Brown, Walt ****ing Weiss, Jim Edmonds, Drayton McLane, Bud Selig, the abandonment of Central Texas, the AL move, 416 losses in 4 years and being the Rangers' whipping boy...I'm pretty sure I'll get over it.
Decent point of view. I actually value Archer more than Quintana so I would think just the opposite. I don't think either trade scenario would be enough but I would jump at it if the Rays or Sox would agree.
When he's healthy, Gray is a $25M/yr pitcher. With 2.5 years left he's probably got ~$40M in surplus value. Yes, if they could straight up sell Martes, Paulino, Musgrove, and C Perez, they'd probably get more than $40M. But how much more? I think removing Musgrove or Paulino would get the deal a lot closer to fair value. But if it ended up being all 4 I wouldn't consider it "incredibly lopsided".
Using Fangraphs preseason prospect valuations, Martes and Paulino would have 48 million in surplus value combined. Musgrove, based on KATOH projection (performance so far is on pace to exceed KATOH projection) is around 37 million in surplus value per a Crawfish boxes earlier this year. That would total 81 million in surplus value assuming Cionel Perez is worth nothing and subtracting Musgrove's value to this point. These surplus values have already been adjusted to NPV (i.e. they take into account wins today are worth a lot more than wins in 2022). How much do you think Martes and Paulino have dropped in value since the preseason?
This is all very subjective but I'd peg it like this: Martes $25M Paulino $17M Musgrove $18M C Perez $5M So Houston would be trading $65M to consolidate the value into 1 $40M player (losing ~$25M in value to do so) whose peak value coincides with the peak of Houston's competitive window.
Eh... Pitching is always at a premium but I'm not sure too many teams would line up to give Sonny Gray $25MM/year. Right now, he's on pace to be worth ~$7MM this year. Last year, he was terrible. If teams knew they were getting 2015 Gray, sure. Maybe. That's assuming he hits, what? ~56 starts over that stretch. The four pitchers, as @Joe Joe articulated, are worth twice that, if not more. I would be shocked if the Astros make a deal of that magnitude. Set aside future value for a moment, as we've seen this year, a trade of three MLB-ready arms + a high-ceiling prospect would gut the depth in the Astros' system and handicap their maneuverability/flexibility at the MLB level.
It is subjective that prospect analysts are assigning value to prospects, but very objective in determining surplus value on the skill of the analyst. I didn't create any of those numbers. Considering Paulino was rated low by Fangraphs, I expect if I ran the numbers based on BA or minor league ball ratings it would come out higher.
PS. Based on fWAR, Musgrove has accumulated over 10 million in surplus value already and not played a full season. 18 million for 2.5 years on minimums and 3 years arbitration seems a huge underestimation. Is his arm about to fall off and no one told me?
OMG some of these trade suggestions. Holy **** calm down people. Maybe we should try Altuve, Springer, Correa, Yuli, and Keuchel for Trout.
Exactly. Which is why I'm starting to like this alternative instead of giving up Martes and Fisher, Whitley, etc in any deal (any combo of 2). We have guys who can give us what Bregman has right now, aka Marwin on the day to day. Remember. It wasn't that long ago that the Chi Sox wanted Bregman in a deal FOR Quintana with a few lower tier prospects tied to it and Luhnow declined it... Glad he did or we would have had Quintana and his 6 plus ERA. If that was the going rate then (was the highly touted ACE like pitcher at the time), I know we can get almost any pitcher when including Bregman in a deal.
I'm not sure if it's been suggested, but I would prefer trying to go after bad NL teams for pitching depth. Most teams in the AL are technically still in contention for a wild card spot and would likely require more in trade value. I haven't specifically seen the Giants mentioned but it would seem reasonable that a guy like Cueto or Samardzija would be available. I don't care about current stats. They both have solid track records and would definitely be able to help our team. They also likely wouldn't require Tucker/Paulino/Martes/Bregman/halfthedamnfarmteam like others suggested.
This I definitely agree with. Trading all 3 of Martes, Musgrove, and Paulino would be a really bad idea since it would leave zero quality, ready arms in AAA in case of an injury. It'd be Peacock and then nobody as far as extra SP.
I'm coming around on this. You're probably right. The disparity is very large. But I don't think it will be much different from what actually ends up happening.
I think Astros will do their due diligence on all the SPs possibly available that they want. That said, NL is weaker in general and pitchers don't have to pitch to DHs that often. I much prefer getting pitching from AL in general and if available, the AL East.
Unless something is wrong with Musgrove's arm, I have a hard time seeing him in a trade unless he is the prime piece. Cheap innings are just too valuable to be a throw-in.
Valid points. However I really do think it is worth asking if getting a marginally better player from the AL is worth the extra cost that it would almost certainly require. At this point I prefer depth over a pitcher having a great season. Cueto would be a great addition IMO.
No no. Didn't you hear he's just a throw in with Bregman, Martes, Fisher, and Paulino so we can get Quintana or Gray?
Here, you value Martes and Paulino at $42MM; Gray at ~$40MM - and you don't think throwing in an additional $23MM makes it lopsided? I understand Oakland is not going to likely engage in a 1:1 deal for a young, club-controlled pitcher. But I assume, if your values check-out, that the Astros *might* consider Martes + C. Perez + one of Musgrove or Paulino but not both.
