With our team where it is right now, I am more for selling the farm than trading a starter. I would give up Tucker, Martes, Paulino, and possibly Fisher before giving up Bregman... just my opinion. Also would Yuli go to 3rd? or Marwin?
Funny, I referenced his FIP precisely because it's not dependent on overall results. Since you're not an analytics expert, FIP focuses exclusively on the only three outcomes a pitcher can control: HR, K, BB. With FIP, a pitcher is not penalized for a bad defense or a shoddy bullpen. And what's great about FIP is that it's formulated to more or less read like ERA. Archer's FIP this year (2.84) is better than Keuchel's or McCullers'. That means he's, collectively, better at striking guys out and limiting his walks and HRs. So, in theory, putting him on what is probably a superior defense like the Astros' would probably get him closer to achieving those #1 overall results.
While I prefer fWAR for under 3 years worth of data, I would lean more heaviliy of Fangraphs RA9 WAR for 3 years of data and over. It would put him at 24th closer to McHugh than the aces. So while definitely not a No.3 , I would say there is ample evidence that he could be an average No.2 pitcher which is still an excellent pitcher and likely better than any pitcher that will be available at the deadline.
Tucker, Martes, Fisher, Musgrove and a low level promising prospect for Archer? or Martes, Perez, Musgrave and Paulino for Gray? I think I go with Gray........
I would think pitchers control a whole lot more than just those three things. HRs are only a tiny fraction of the hits a pitcher a gives up - how well people make contact against you in all the non-HR situations is a huge part of pitching. As is your ability to pitch with runners-on vs not (some of this is luck, of course, but a guy like Fiers seemed to give up a huge number of solo HRs, but was able to prevent baserunners scoring when on base), or your ability to pitch to different situations, etc.
Very tough call. I hate Gray's injury history enough that I take Archer. But that's it...if it's Archer at that price, we're basically looking at free agency to build out the team at that point going forward over the next 1-2 seasons, and some smaller deadline moves.
Pitchers have some control over other things. However, the hitters and base runners have a huge influence over non-HR contact, base running, and a few other things. A long time is needed for pitchers to pitch to enough hitters for ERA to wash out the differences in hitter quality as well as luck. Over enough time, a pitcher will have faced enough batters that luck and difference in hitters gets averaged out in ERA. FIP on the other hand, starts with a league average ERA and adjusts it for things that he has the most control (HR, K, BB). ERA given enough time (seen 3 years a lot) will be a more accurate representation of a pitcher's ability as these other things affect it, but it is tough to rely on a stat that takes 3 years to become reliable. It has been a while since I've read anything specifically on this, but I believe FIP is better at predicting ERA than ERA for the next year for something like 95% of the pitchers. The 5% are the extreme pop up guys and extreme ground ball guys. Below are the top guys and bottom guys for ERA - FIP. First number is ERA and second number is FIP. From today to end of season, do you think these guys will mostly have ERAs for rest of the season closer to their ERA number to date or to the FIP number to date? 1 Josh Tomlin Indians 5.73 3.83 2 Trevor Bauer Indians 5.85 4.27 3 Yovani Gallardo Mariners 6.11 4.78 4 Jeff Samardzija Giants 4.31 3.16 5 Jose Quintana White Sox 5.30 4.16 6 Chris Sale Red Sox 2.97 1.83 7 Adam Wainwright Cardinals 4.73 3.65 1 Ervin Santana Twins 2.20 4.47 2 Lance Lynn Cardinals 2.69 4.73 3 Derek Holland White Sox 3.79 5.35 4 Andrew Cashner Rangers 3.17 4.69 5 Gio Gonzalez Nationals 2.91 4.35 6 Dallas Keuchel Astros 1.67 3.07 7 Jeremy Hellickson Phillies 4.50 5.81 8 Dylan Bundy Orioles 3.05 4.32 9 Kyle Freeland Rockies 3.57 4.71 10 Jason Vargas Royals 2.10 3.21 11 Yu Darvish Rangers 3.03 4.09
Why is hitter-quality a factor in non-HR contact but not HRs? It seems like HRs is just a really tiny sample size version of the non-HR contact. Just to clarify, I'm not disagreeing with this - I just find the whole thing bizarre. Honestly, I have no idea. I don't follow enough of these guys to really have a good sense of it. The only one I really follow is Keuchel, and I would like to believe he's better than ~3.07 ERA pitcher this year, but who knows. But looking at the top and bottom guys in ERA probably suggests at least some regression to the mean simply because there is likely to a bit more luck involved in their results so far - I guess that's kind of the point of FIP, though. But I'd be curious about middle-tier pitchers who have very different FIPs and how those guys play out through the end of the season. If I weren't so lazy and cared a bit more, that would be a fun thing to record all of them today and then look back at the end of the season.
Is there anything wrong with Musgrove or Paulino that would affect their future after this season? Astros are going to need people to pitch innings after this season. Keuchel, McCullers, Gray, and Morton all had season ending injuries last season and McHugh has had dead arm all year. Prefer that Gray offer, but probably would look else where first.
Movement, command on pitches allows pitcher to have greater control of whether hitters can get ball in the air at a good launch angle. Hitter' s speed, contact skills, whether they can be shifted, and power (though also needed for homers) affect whether fielders can get to ball and make a play more on non homers.
I hope I am wrong but I expect the cost for the type of starting pitcher the Astros want, to be higher than I expected or most others. The Cubs are going to add a top of the rotation starter. Their rotation is a mess and they are worried about the health of two of their top 3 starters. They have assets to move and will pay over fair cost (Chapman) to get the player they want. The Astros likely plan on paying the price, but time will tell.
I was hoping Astros could get a SP with some combination of Perez, Whitley, one of Paulino, Musgrove, and Martes, Stubbs, Fisher, and Reed. Would hope to get a couple of rental hitters at LF, 1B, or DH if can't get internally. If Astros can keep Fisher, hope he's the LF.
I'm sure if Houston could dictate which 3-4 of their top prospects they gave up, it'd be something like: 2 of Martes, Musgrove, Paulino. Keeping one of those would be important for depth (as we've seen over the last week). 1 or 2 of Whitley, F Perez, and C Perez. They don't want to decimate the lower levels but these guys are more replaceable than the upper level guys, especially if other teams value them nearly as much. 1 or 2 of Fisher, Teoscar, Reed, Moran, and Davis. Obviously Fisher has separated himself over the last 2 months. They have openings at LF and DH next season and being able to fill that from within would save a lot of money they could use toward extensions and free agents to enhance the pitching staff. If they at all have a choice, Tucker and Bregman would be completely off the table.
I would try my damnedst to not trade Whitley or Tucker. Not that I know anything from anything (and I'm biased about Whitley), but those are the 2 guys closest to being game-changing talent.
Don't know much about Whitley, but agree on Tucker. Astros should be more willing to deal lower level guys and redundant corner bats.
Well guys, not trying to jump the gun at all... (I AM). - We knew that Fisher was one of our top hitting prospects. The discipline we saw from him today IN THE #8 HOLE was impressive. Wow. - We knew that Martes was 21 years old with massive upside as a SP. But we just saw some flashes of a potential ace level arm. These performances today kind of make me want to keep both guys and maybe dangle Tucker a little more in trade talks even though I think Tucker will be good. Maybe even dangle Bregman as a centerpiece but I still highly doubt we do that unless we get an Archer back. Aoki may be dispensable as it'll be hard to send down Fisher after performances like this (especially if he keeps it up and I think he will). What an interesting, good spot to be in as we may have our OF set for the next 3-4 years with 1B, another bullpen arm, and an ace SP #3 being our only glaring needs. Either way, Martes and Fisher helped our case for them being one of the center pieces to a deal to further improve our team. This was a great day for Astros fans.
