Those 5 runs still count against your team. I've never paid too much attention to the unearned run stat. A player booting a play he should make doesn't give you an excuse for allowing multiple runs to score. He allowed 10 base runners in 6 innings giving those errors a chance to mushroom. Obviously yesterday was just one game, it's the overall results since the beginning of 2016 that concern me
Gray was hurt last year and it took him a few starts to get back close to where he was before he was injured. His last few starts he has pitched well. minus his last start. He's been on par with Archer in performance and should come at a cheaper cost. The big thing is Gray's stuff is back and I expect that he will continue to improve,minus a few hiccups that all pitchers have. Like his last start that you pointed out. BTW, Archer also has had plenty of those kinds of starts if you check out his stats this year.
Of course you dont because you're building a case for Archer. In 2016 Gray was hurt so you shouldn't expect him to have good numbers. Right now Gray is back to a slightly lesser version of his old self. Most importantly his stuff is back to where it was before injury. He had 10 strikeouts and 2 ER's in 6 innings, that's the kind of pitcher that should be at the top of Luhnow's list.
Unique way of looking at it. The A's have a horrible defense, so even things not considered errors work against Gray. One of the errors was on Gray yesterday. Every pitcher is going to get in some trouble here and there. Gray would have been through five innings two over the minimum if not for the errors. I would take Gray and call it a day, because he is going to infinitely more available than Archer.
Chris Archer has been a better pitcher this year, and last year. Even before last year they were very comparable. I don't really need to doctor the numbers to state that fact, which is exactly why Archer will cost more. And as my original post stated in the first sentence, Gray is the guy out of the Gray/Cole/Quintana trio I would want the most because he's pitching better this year. But if I'm giving up a really big package (not sure what his price is) I ideally would like a guy that has been consistently good, not a guy trending in the right direction.
A player "booting a play" isn't an excuse, but it's giving the other team extra outs when there's a possibility the inning could be over. Find it interesting the stats you selectively pointed out from his start yesterday and FAILED to mention him striking out TEN and only walking one over 6 innings. A pitcher can't do it by themselves....the guys behind him better do their part as well.
I probably shouldn't have even mentioned yesterdays start, becuase it really isn't playing much of a role my opinion of him. But since I've been called out on it multiple times I guess I will address it. The first 2 runs scored off of his error. He made a throwing error to first to lead off an inning, he then proceeded to allow a double and 2 singles afterward and 2 runs scored. Now some of you may write those runs off as "not his fault" but when multiple unearned runs occur it usually because an error occurred and the pitcher allowed a lot off traffic around that error, and I don't believe all of those runs should be ignored just because one of the base runners reached on some bad luck, we know the final score in games won't ignore it. Th second unearned run came after he allowed a walk, 2 doubles and a single. And yes he struck out 10, which is awesome. He also allowed 10 guys to reach base in 6 innings, not including the errors.
Errors are applied at judgement of the scorer and are more like sychonized swimming stats than most baseball stats. Why is it an unearned run when a guy boots it, but not earned runs when Springer makes a great play at the wall to rob a grand slam? When Gattis was in left in 2015, he did not made an error because he just isn't good enough to get to balls. Should a pitcher get his ERA punished for having Gattis in left while another guy gets his ERA protected by a guy that boots balls? Bad plays happen. The error stat is not a good representation of defensive ability (except for extreme cases like the A's) as they only collect a subset of bad defensive plays and that subset is heavily affected by someone that does not affect the outcome of the score at all. PS. I haven't followed the conversation, but saw mention of the error stat and just threw out my dislike for that stat.
Go check out their Stats. Very comparable, certainly not the difference you would have to give up in prospects.
I believe his start yesterday was his eighth of the season. Certainly agree with you that 10 guys reaching base over 6 innings is a little more then you'd like. However what I took away from his performance is that he's showing signs (slowly but surely) of rounding back into the pitcher that has some filthy stuff (10 K's).
i think its pretty damn apparent we need to make a trade sooner. Our SPs are not going to hold up and our bullpen is being wayyyy over used
Gray, Cole, Archer, I'll take any of those guys... and I really don't care what you have to give up for them as long as you aren't hurting the current major league roster. Here's the important thing, though, their rotation is hurting right now. And the bullpen is getting killed because of it. Now they are probably, ultimately going to be fine but I would hate for all of this team's hard work building a 12 game lead go down the drain because the front office wants to wait and see. They are literally down to their last resort. I mean, they had to call up their top pitching prospect before he was ready because of how much this pitching staff is getting killed. You don't have to wait for the trade deadline...
What about a guy like Volquez? He should be available since Marlins are terrible and likely looking to shed some salary.
I'd be ok with Volquez as a BoR option as long as the cost was very low (like 2 prospects outside of the org Top 10). He's actually been pretty consistent in his career and this year is no different. Although if they were gonna trade for a BoR arm I wish they'd have done it 2 weeks ago.
Yeah, perhaps the current situation will make the front office speed up any timetable they had for making a trade.
Bregman, Martes, Teoscar for Gerritt Cole and Tony Watson Yes, yes I know that Bregman is a really valuable commodity. Other teams should know that too: 23yo former #2 overall pick, still in his first year of major league experience with many more years of club control, projected positive WAR in all those years, preferably at 2B>SS>3B. Nevertheless, if you put a gun to my head and made me choose between Kyle Tucker and Bregman, I'm giving up Bregman. A 26yo TOR pitcher with club control thru the end of 2019 is going to cost you more than just Martes, and imo we can better afford to lose Bregman than other guys. Colin Moran for example is 24yo, a former top ten pick that Luhnow considered at #1 before taking Correa, and this year he has grown a beard and discovered a power stroke by increasing his FB/GB ratio. Now with 12HR (previous career high was 10 over the whole year in 2016), 41RBI, and .278/.343/.524 splits (career .286/.349/.422). He's 6'4 and much more of your prototypical 3B build, able to use his length to spear those line drives that too many times this year Bregman has proven too short to get. J.D. Davis is also 24yo, drafted in the 3rd round, and batting .277/.342/.541 in AA (career .281/.354/.509). I'm not saying that Bregman is worthless; I'm saying that you have many options in his stead (including Marwin at 3B this year), and that he's probably worth more to other teams than to us because his body type truly belongs at second base a la Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia, Dan Uggla, what have you. What I've seen the past month suggests to me that, even when his sophomore slump finishes and he's back to spraying line drives all over the field, he won't be an MLB avg defender at the hot corner. And with Altuve entrenched as an Astros lifer at 2B, determined to give Pete Rose a run for his money, you gotta take your chips and cash them in while they still have value.
I wonder what it would take to get Blake Snell from the Rays? I know he stunk at the beginning of this year, but he appears to have turned it around in AAA. He's always had great stuff and is a lefty that the org is in short supply. (Just thinking outside the box.)
If they're going to consider dealing Bregman - and I think you make a compelling case why they should - I'd like the target to be better than Cole and Watson (who's FIP the past two years is troubling, as is his overall struggle this year. Plus, he's 32 and a FA2B). Archer would be my ideal get for any deal involving Bregman. He's better than Cole and has a much better upside. And I think Bregman might just get Tampa's attention on a piece they'd likely rather not move.
