Good lists. I have Archer as slightly better than Darvish going forward this season. Darvish is the best of the likely traded. On second list, Vargas stands out to me as a safer option if can't get someone from top list. That said, I'm going for Peacock to have a solid 7 tonight and that he continues to pitch well. Still a small sample, but he's pitched well enough to be watched. Not likely going to have enough track record to be trusted with playoff starts, but hoping he can take up slack until deadline. Having an unexpected starter pop up will help as Astros should be more willing deal pitching prospects.
Very surprised to see you mention Archer still as a possibility; just can't see how he would be available at anywhere near a reasonable price.
It depends on what the Astros want to do. If the owner feels this is the year, and they believe that Archer is the best pitcher on the market; then I could see the Astros trading a lot of prospects for Archer. Personally I think Archer is a nice pitcher, but not a #1 starter.
With Martes sucking pretty much this entire season it's hard to imagine them being able to pull off a trade for any of the possible top of the line pitchers without Tucker being included in the package of prospects.
I'd have Archer among Top 20 pitchers. He does give up more runs than his FIP would suggest on average, but even looking at a run prevention WAR over last year, he's at the 18th spot. He plays in AL East, the hardest division in baseball. He's probably not an ace, but he's a damn good pitcher that will pitch innings, and Astros typically score more runs per inning ( and are projected to score more runs per inning) than he gives up per inning in about 70% of his starts. Based on his FIP, division, and history, I trust his run prevention stats going forward and in playoffs more than someone like Darvish whose ERA is generally closer to FIP than it is this year. I don't think any team has a better third starter right now nor do I think any team will have a better third starter in playoffs than Archer. There is risk in everything in baseball, especially pitching, but Archer appears the safest potential option for a playoff pitching upgrade if the rest of the Rays fall apart.
Agreed. I wonder how true the rumor is that the Astros offered a kings ransom of prospects prior to the season (Tucker, Martes, Perez amongst others) and the rays declined. Teams that are used to being flush with prospects often enough (like the Rays) may be harder to impress? Then again, the A's-Astros pipeline is strong.
I would pretty much be willing to give up anything on the farm to get Archer. Tucker, Martes, Fisher, and Perez would not be too much to me.
The Gammons rumor seemed off to me as it had Astros offering all the high level pitching prospects when Astros could have offered similar value to Paulino at lower levels or position players. Value didn't seem bad in deal, but seemed more like a counter offer.
Depends on what you mean by top of the line. Martes' issues are generally viewed as correctable as well. Obviously you want him to perform well but his stuff is still very good. Martes could headline a deal for some of the pitchers viewed as "top of the line" this deadline. Personally I don't think any legitimate top of the line pitchers are available other than possibly a Yu Darvish rental. The best pitcher available for this year only may be Jason Vargas. The other names are mostly guys that either have been #1(b)'s in the past (Gray, Cole) or have the raw stuff to be #1's but have pitched like #2-3's (Archer). You pay a premium when there is less on the market like this year. However, you are still talking about adding a #2-3 starter at best.
Absolutely, but are you willing to pay a similar price to what Chris Sale cost the Red Sox? Are you willing to pay ace prices for a guy that is a number 2 pitcher? There isn't a right answer, it is just the likely reality of the situation.
In my opinion Archer's current value is significantly greater than what Sale was worth when he was traded. Sale was worth 17.6 fWAR from 2014-2016. When traded his remaining contract was $32M/3y. Archer was worth 13.5 fWAR from 2014-2016. He currently has $36.2M/4.5y left on his deal. That extra 1.5 years and the way lower salary are huge. I think all this is moot since I just can't see how it makes sense for Tampa to trade Archer with 4 extra seasons of control left unless they get a flat stupid offer from another team.
I like Moncado even with the strikeout warts so I don't think what I would offer for Archer would be that close, but probably better than almost any other trade in the last three years. Granted, Sale is making it look like Red Sox got a good deal so far. I know Archer's extra two years probably are not worth nearly as much as his first 3. It is a big difference from Sale to Archer, but Archer is probably closer to Sale going forward this year than Aoki is to an average left fielder. I think Astros could get Archer and an average LF (or 1 WAR upgrade elsewhere) for comparable to what Sale got.
Sale is doing his same act from last year. Randy Johnson for the first 6 weeks and more like wandy Rodriguez the rest of the way.
I am not opposed to Gray. But he is not an elite strikeout pitcher which is a drawback and he has had injury issues. Cole has also been inconsistent and has had injury issues. Quintana has been durable but is struggling with his fastball command this year. Vargas? He's an alright pitcher with very mediocre peripherals. The same can be said for Ervin Santana. Cueto? Very scared of the 4 years if he ends up opting in. Samardzija? 3 years left on his contract after this one at 18 million dollars per year. Greinke? Doubt he gets put on the market but I'd be scared of him solely due to the massive contract and his age. Same with Verlander. Stroman? Reminds me of Gray but without the arm issues so far in his career but I doubt the Jays put him on the market. Duffy? Not a fan of the peripherals or durability. Darvish? Pure rental, injury issues, and Rangers would want a king's ransom. Not sure they even end up trading him. Archer: -four plus years left of control -durable -elite velocity -striking out 11 per nine this year and struck out over 10 per nine the prior two seasons -career 3.53 era, 3.42 fip, 3.44 xfip -career siera is 3.48 with a siera this year of 3.28 with his prior two years being 3.50 and 3.08 He would pretty easily be the best pitcher if he's put on the market unless somehow magically the Giants decide to trade Bumgarner.
I probably would do it to be honest. Didn't you say the Astros like Pineda? Or did they just like him as a buy-low guy last season? Do you think they'd go after him in free agency this offseason or too expensive/inconsistent?
Of the 3 likely targets, Gray is looking like the guy I would want the most, but his results continue to be inconsistent. He gave up 5 runs and 9 hits in 6 innings today. His peripherals are looking much better this year, but ultimately his results are just OK and he was downright bad last year. Over the last year and a half Archer has been much better than Gray, and his peripherals this year are some of the best of his career. But most of us feel he isn't really available.
Of the 5 runs he gave up yesterday only two of them were earned. You also left out that he struck out TEN and only walked one in the six innings.
