Astros Trade option(s)

If they trade Tucker for any of these options that aren't Archer (and I don't expect Archer to be moved), I'll be extremely disappointed. But will trust that Luhnow sees more in the post-trade value than I do I suppose.

 

Astros should have traded for Vargas before tonight's game.

 

Is it out of question that they pursue more than 1 SP? While I would love Archer and to a lesser extent Gray, I think Cueto would be a nice addition. He has WS experience and has thrown some gems in the playoffs.

 

He's also guaranteed 90 million over the next 4 years.

He was great last year, and his peripherals are pretty good this year, but that's a lot of money for a guy who's been up and down for the last few years.

 

I'd say not out of the question if they can get a cheap BoR pitcher that eats innings that is better than Diets. Though, I am liking Peacock and Musgrove.

 

Hard to say. For now, it'd be setting the market early which probably means a higher price. I think the Kazmir deal might be a good comparison. Maybe Garrett Stubbs and Hector Perez? That may not be enough. If it would take any of the top guys (Tucker, Martes, Paulino, Perez, Fisher, Whitley) then it should be a no-go. And really the other potential ToR SP (Quintana, Gray, Cole, Cueto) are preferable by a wide margin.

 

Projected starters for this year (before it began)

Keuchel (out for now)
McCullers
McHugh (out, hasn't pitched all year)
Morton (out)

One of to fill 5th spot:

Musgrove (out)
Gustave (out)
Fiers

----- ----- ---- ------ ----- ------

So out of 7 guys, only two are currently available? And of those two, one (Fiers) has been subpar and the other has injury history? Geeeez. Isn't it time to get something done?

 

Keuchel is available. That's 3. Musgrove looking like he's returning in 3-4 days. That's 4. No, I don't think there's urgency to do something for the sake of injuries on the 1st place team in baseball

 

We all agree they need another top arm, but they aren't gonna force the issue and overpay because our rotation has hit a rough patch.

We could go after a capable but unspectacular guy to keep us in games and eat innings, but those guys aren't cheap, and it likely wouldn't impact our postseason chances much given that Fiers and Musgrove have pretty much been doing that. He also wouldn't likely factor into a postseason rotation.

At this point I think we are just gonna use the cushion to see if we can develop Musgrove, Paulino, Peacock and Martes in house. Plus we need to see if any of the possible targets actually start to perform at a frontline level, which they haven't been doing.

 

Thats a valid take. One that part of me still agrees with. But it comes with risk. Yea, our record looks good, even great at the moment, but it is starting to take hits directly related to this issue. No way we lose yesterdays game with even a Fiers quality guy working those first 5 innings.

I am thinking about September when often times, the division and playoff races tighten up. Yea, right now, giving a game away here and there doesn't seem like a big deal. But many a September has rolled around where we realize that games earlier in the season that were winable, but lost instead can be costly. I think its naive to believe we have already won the division and are gong to the playoffs. I thinks its a mistake to ever get away from the mentality of trying to win every game you can, regardless of circumstance. If we could dance around our SP problem without costing games, I would be in full support of waiting.

 

So, for clarity, you are a proponent of losing games that we may not otherwise lose in order to not pay more than we should in a trade? Is that what you are saying?

"Using the cushion" sounds like this is your position.

 

I guess when you say "costing games" or "starting to take hits directly related to this issue", I question the statements. You're looking very micro by analyzing 1-2 games. Is the issue really affecting this team if they're 11-2 in their last 13? I'd say, not really. If they end up winning/splitting 90% of series, I guarantee there won't be an issue in September, regardless of what "often" happens.

The races tighten because teams go on prolonged losing streaks/droughts. This team is balanced and, thus far, has found ways to win in spite of any issues (including Keuchel on the DL, McHugh never being here, etc.).

I'm willing to consider that the issue is affecting the team if the last 2 days happen for, say, 80% of the time over 2+ weeks. Or even if, 2+ weeks from now, we've gone roughly .500 but the bullpen is gassed and we're forced to DL Gregerson and shuttle Hoyt down just for arms. I think they'll manage through these issues, though.

 

Pretty bold statements. I hope you are right. But we have over 100 games still to play.

 

I'd rather they give Fisher a look in LF before using any resources. Granted, Fisher is now likely a key component of any deal for a pitcher (yes?) - but I'd sure like to see if any of what he's doing in Fresno would make the trip to Houston.

 

I don't think this is a rough patch, though. We knew before the season started that 3/5 of the rotation was a question mark due to health/performance (5/5 if we include Keuchel and LMJ), and they have not disappointed. If DK and LMJ can stay healthy, they don't need another top arm to make the postseason.

BUT.... they will need another top arm IN the postseason AND I do have concerns that if we trot out too many guys incapable of pitching beyond the fifth inning, it will start to take its toll on our bullpen.

If I have a complaint about Hinch thus far, it's that I think he's missed opportunities to let his younger pitchers work through tougher situations and extended their pitch counts - especially during the streak when the team was scoring 50 billion runs a game. Case in point, why not let Paulino finish the 6th the other night? You're up 4; there are two outs and Gordon and his .591 OPS are up. Not only did that not feel like a Devo moment - but it was a chance for Paulino (who'd only thrown 89 pitches) to get some critical game management experience. Better to do it now, when you're essentially playing with house money, than in August or September in which you might need him.

 

I don't think it's that bold. It's the math that goes with this great of a start. If you win/split 90% of series, you're playing > .500 ball. If the Astros play at a .550 clip the rest of the way, they'll win 101-102 games on the season. That = zero issues in September. It would take a prolonged losing streak/drought (i.e. not winning/splitting 90% of series) to drop below that.

 

Gustave was not a starter. He and Hoyt were fighting for the last relief spot. He started 0 minor league games in 2015 and 2016.

You left Peacock off your list.

 

My error(s).

It seemed to me Peacock was fighting to stay on the club in any role, not necessarily as a starter.

 

I'd have rather Fisher been starting for the last 3 weeks. Unless they pull him up soon, they likely won't have enough data to know if rolling with him is okay. As you mentioned, I have accepted that there is a good chance he's gone in a trade.