The list of pitchers I would be totally fine with trading Tucker for is pretty short; Archer is really the only one who may be anywhere near available. For Cole, Gray, or Quintana, I'm fine giving up Martes and 2-3 other good prospects.
He has stunk his last 3 starts. Before that Cole was pitching at a level just below the DK/LMJ level. Ace stuff Give me Gray if they have to make a trade, followed by Cole/Cueto.
If he struggling right now, I'm ok with that bringing down his value to where we wouldn't have to include Fisher or Tucker, then he can come here and Strom can work his magic.
Position player wise they're a tough trade match-up because Marte and Polanco are both great young OFer's on long term deals and their #1 position prospect (Meadows) is also an OFer who is already at AAA. Not saying it couldn't/won't happen, but making another OF the primary piece of a Cole trade would be really weird. I'd also see them asking for a bunch of pitching prospects. If they asked for Martes, Frankie Perez, and Paulino who says no?
Whitley would certainly be a goner. If it is going to cost that much, then part ways with some prospects for Archer. He seems like he would fit the chemistry of this team as well. Isn't Cole a borderline nut case?
Archer may not be available. The Rays are hovering around .500 and he'd likely have the highest prospect cost. Who we should go after will almost certainly depend upon cost. Quintana, Cole, & Gray all have question marks, but all should be major improvements to the rotation.
No offense taken -- you are certainly entitled to your opinion. I think we can agree he hasn't been elite or even great the past two years (including this one). If I'm giving up Tucker or Martes, I don't want to give them up for someone that I hope will turn it around. I'd rather we trade them for someone currently producing at a high level. Just my opinion.
Tell me why Archer is better than Cole/Gray other than contract length? I've asked this question before, Archer has ace stuff but #3 results and has always been this way. I'm for getting Archer if the prospect haul isn't too great. (Unlikely) But give me a playoff tested Gray/Cole over Archer.
I don't have a good feel on what to expect from Cole and Gray right now. I expect Quintana to be closer to a FIP of 4 for the rest of the season though projections have him closer to 3.80 FIP. I look at Astros guys and think we'll have one guy that is probably a 4.10 FIP the rest of the way as a third starter. Granted, Quintana has excellent health and pitches deeper into games so I would like him for the right price for the regular season. For playoffs, I'm expecting 3rd starter gets 4-5 before yielding to the pen. Regarding playoffs, I think there will be a lot of LFs available that can help more than Quintana. What do you expect the FIP to be for Cole, Gray for the rest of the season? Who do you expect to be the third best starter for Astros and what do you think his FIP will be?
I really have no clue which guy I prefer. Cole is probably the best talent and I guess be my pick (but him and Gray were hurt a good portion of last season). I think they will be close to 3.5 (with Quintana closer to 4). I think the goal should be to have 4 postseason starters, especially given Keuchel & LMJ's injuries last year plus Morton's terrible health history. I don't want any of them pitching on short rest unless it is an elimination game.
Pitchers like Cole or Harvey are a risk but may bring high returns if they can bounce back to their old form. That's a big if for these two pitcher.
I always question that mentality. When the top guys slump I always think "huh, they're probably less likely to trade him because they're not going to get the package they want" rather than "okay now they'll settle for less". Most of the top starters available are on teams that aren't in "must tear down/tank" mode. Quintana is the only one who definitely should be traded, because they already traded their other, better pieces.
I can agree with that opinion. That's why I think Luhnow will likely add a mid rotation type under team control rather than pay the premium to get a potential ace.
I definitely think Astros are capable of throwing up a better 4th starter/bullpen tandem than anyone. I want that third starter part for having a better guy and part as a security blanket in case Keuchel of McCullers goes down. Stroman is the guy I like, but he had to be awesome and help Toronto convince themselves that they won't be crushed by the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays. On Cole and Gray, their projections have them at 3.66 (probably about 3.80 if in AL) and 3.86 FIP. Not sure I believe those numbers, but they are worrisome as I don't know what is going on with them. Being rumored to be on the trading block seems to have a horrible impact on pitching performance so far this year.
Hard to see Toronto moving anyone. I like them for the 2nd WC spot. They've managed to climb back and they are almost healthy. Gray's xFIP & SIERA fall closely in line with his career, so probably some small sample size effects (low % of stranded runners and higher HR/FB%). Cole's numbers are a good deal worse than they were in 2014-2015. His velocity is fine, but K% is down and his hard hit % is up. Maybe getting less movement? Tipping pitches? I feel Cole is a bigger risk than Gray about his performance the rest of the season, but that Cole has the lower injury risk. I believe Cole at his best is better than Gray at his best.
Thanks. Not sure how the Pirates run, but Oakland typically doesn't usually have a problem with quantity. They know that they need to have some average guys become good to win. While a lot of fans here hate uncertainty, Oakland swims in it like Scrooge McDuck.
