Is Marwin Gonzalez for real, and if so, should we give him a bunch of money?

Who gives a **** what he costs next year? It's go time.

 

He is a UFA when Keuchel is, Altuve the next year, Springer shortly after that, etc. They just aren't going to be able to keep everyone unless Crane is willing to have a top 5 payroll... and we don't really know just how high he will go.

 

So? Who cares right now?

 

Oh I'm not worried about it at all right now. Just something to put in the reserves and think about for later... just enjoying the ride.

 

If the Astros want to try to sign him, I would try to do it THIS offseason when they aren't directly competing with anyone and when Marwin still has some risk playing out a contract year. They could see if he's interested in a 2 or 3 year extension - that $20-$40MM would be life-changing money and eliminate the worry that this year turns out to be a fluke. And then that money could come off the books when or shortly after some of the core approaches their own contract ends.

 

now that would be interesting and more near-term (so relevant to at least think about right now). It's hard to imagine the scenario in which this makes sense, though. If Marwin hits ~.800-.825 OPS the rest of the year, he'll end the season in the .850-.875 range. Going into an offseason, I'm not sure he could accept a deal that takes him to his age 31 or 32 season as free agent. But I think like you said, he'd have to consider it if he ended the season on that type of good-not-great trend.

(If he hits any less than that the rest of the year, the Astros will probably want to see how next year plays out at 5M. If he continues to rake higher than that the rest of the season, there's no chance he'd accept--he'd have to bet on himself.)

 

got no need to make any judgement calls off a month worth of data. Make it with a seasons worth of data at the end of the year.

 

Marwin had a phenomenal month of May. His 5 HRs in April gave him a high slugging percentage but his average and OBP were not good in April. Over his career he has had his moments but for the most part has been very average. His ability to play multiple positions adds to his value. Hopefully, he will continue his massive May throughout the rest of the season and that he doesn't regress to the mean. So, lets see it happen for more than 25 games before breaking the bank.

 

(I should read all the replies before replying)

 

Yes, but his OBP was only low because he was carrying a .171 BABIP in April.

His huge spike in walk rate (with no increase in K rate) this year is starting to make me believe his elevated performance is legit. His HR rate won't stay at this crazy high number, but his overall peripherals look promising.

 

I don't think correa has had a stretch this long of being as good as marwin.

 

I think it happened a bunch in the Steroid era.

 

May's numbers are pretty close. Correa has more RBI and runs scored, but had an additional 25 or so at bats. Be curious to see if either is named player of the month. Trout had a 1.281 OPS prior to getting hurt.

Marwin:

.382 .461 .737 1.198

Carlos

.386 .457 .673 1.130

 

it looks exactly like Brady's blip year.. *but* that occurred at age 32 after 8 years in the bigs and 4 years of full-season play. Marwin does have on his side the fact that he's barely 28 and has never had a full-time role in terms of consistent ABs. Even last year was still 70-75% of what a typical starter gets in terms of ABs, and that was much more than the previous couple of seasons. And, of course, this still could be an extended hot streak.

 

With our FAs coming up soon.. They might keep 1-2 guys out of the 4 (Keuchel, Altuve, Marwin, Springer). If I had to bet it be Keuchel and Altuve that stays...

 

Highest I can go is tree fiddy.

 

For now I would be comfortable giving Marwin a $27M/3yr extension on top of his current deal. That would take him through his age 32 season, and the cost very much limits the downside; even if he's just a solid utility guy as he's been before this season he'd be almost worth that much, and if this years production is legit then he becomes a steal. That amount of money might be hard for him to pass up, but if he bets on himself and becomes Ben Zobrist he's leaving a lot on the table. But from Houstons perspective if it takes much more than that I don't think it's worth the gamble, with the other guys who will reach free agency soon and the guys coming up from the farm who might be able to replace Marwin.

 

He'd be insane to take that deal. If he somehow manages to get an all-star nod then its moot but even still that's unlikely.

That's roughly a 1.2 WAR per year. I'd personally value him at least like an average starter (2.0 WAR) because his versatility allows to us to carry one less position player and one more pitcher; that's yuge. I don't think he gets Zobrist money unless he puts up an all-star/5.0WAR season but I'd guess at least 3/$36m.

 

This. Even before this year he put up 1.5, 1.8, 1.2 WAR seasons. That's 4.5 WAR over 3 seasons, which is worth about $36 million. So before this "break out" he was already worth $12 mil a year. He's going to cost a lot if he keeps this up. I'd be okay with him taking a 3/36 deal, at worst, we're paying market value for a very useful utility guy.

 

you could keep all 4. Beltran is going to retire. another 17 million with sipp, luke and it appears nori is mercenary for hire.

You show you're big baller and not credit card rich, pay them and the young studs coming up play the vacant position for pennies.
By then, McCann's contract will be expiring so that's another 17$ off the books.

6 most important signings by 2019:
Tuve
Springer
Dallas
Marwin
Julia, can't let her go back to reporting for the rangers.
Steve Sparks, so underrated.