I think 2017 and 2015 Harden are pretty similar. 2015 definitely incorporated a mid range game I'd like to see back. 2017 definitely had a much higher usage. Higher calculated usage, and higher "true" usage in the sense of the amount of time Harden dominated the ball. Most importantly 2015 Harden performed better in the playoffs. I don't HATE Harden. That's a strong word. I just recognize (i) Harden's seemingly unfixable flaws, and (ii) the current state of the super-team NBA where GSW are likely to be dominant for the next half decade and the Spurs machine will keep on rolling and sign great players. What I do hate about Harden's game: - Lack of motion - Dribble, dribble, dribble - Worse 3 point shooter than he thinks, yet he continues jacking them up - Too much reliance on FTs - WAY WAY WAY WAY WAY too many turnovers - Had had difficulty meshing with players in Houston (Lin, Lawson, Dwight) - Defense is laughable, to the extent that you're better off having him guard PFs than wing/backourt players - Ok, but not great leader. Passive aggressive, too often seems to be blaming others for his defensive miscues As a pure fan of basketball... well, it's not the most exciting brand of basketball. Some may point to the regular season. Which I think is somewhat valid. The Rockets started out fun as crap. The offense had way more flow to it. But it slowly, week by week, month by month, continued to devolve to basically last year's version. What I love about Harden's game: - Amazing 1 on 1 player - Amazing pick and roll player - Great rebounder - Strong enough offensive player in general that he alone can carry a team pretty far - Willing passer - Best guy I have ever seen at baiting others into fouling him On the whole, his is a game that is generally frustrating to watch, and even at its best can be off-putting to me to a degree. Great that you can get to the line, great that you can put someone like Kanter on skates or hold the ball for 10 seconds, juke a solid defender and hit a three at times... but it's just not overall the most visually pleasing style. It is what it is. The main reason I'd be happy to move on from Harden is the state of the league combined with the Rockets cap situation and the FA markets. The team needs two ACTUAL all star or very near or recent past type all stars to truly compete. This team also needs a true commitment to defense which I'm not even sure is possible with MDA who I believe only once in his coaching career has had a top 10 defense. But I know Harden isn't being moved, so I just have to hope they can land a Hayward, Millsap, Blake, Ibaka type or two, hope something happens with GSW, and hope Kawhi doesn't continue to improve and the Spurs add another player.
I understand context and usage rate formula. His usage honestly didn't increase that much this year it only appears that way because he got moved to "pg" and dribbles the ball up court. He had a much more (beloved by many) mid range game but that in no part made him more efficient. The fact he shot more 3s and less 2s is part of an evolution, ie getting better. And his 2pt% improved not because of "foul tactics" but because he erased much of his lower % mid range and started finishing more around the rim at a higher rate and not looking for the foul but rather to finish more often. His ft increase has a lot due to his IQ evolving (again) in drawing the 3pt (cookie jar) you reach I teach move so frequenly.
What I really dislike about his game - seems to be non explosive as hell......... if he was an athletic player, there would be more dunks to cheer about. His scoring game is very boring to watch to the extent that I came to relish his assists which are nothing like Steve Nash's but at least enjoyable.
Imagine being bored watching a player on your favorite team put up historic seasons just because he doesn't dunk enough. Some of y'all reach to the heavens for things to complain about.
The historic season I give him credit but the better he'll do in regular season the more disappointed folks will be when he is not showing up in important playoff knockout games.
Yeah... I'm not displeased with his athleticism from an enjoyment perspective. That's not my main gripe about what isn't pleasing about his game. He clearly isn't the most athletic, classically. But he's certainly fast enough, strong enough, good enough of a ball handler with a high enough bball IQ that he could play a more classically beautiful game. It's more that he doesn't then he can't. Sure, there is a boring-ness to his scoring. Find a way to drive left, step back three pointer, or get fouled. But most great players have a boring-ness in that sense. Like Kareem's sky hook got boring. Or Hakeem's dream shake got boring. They're boring, and they're not. They're impressive and amazing in their effectiveness. If I'm going to b**** about Harden's athleticism, then it's to note that its true he doesn't have the crazy vertical, crazy speed or crazy height that others have. Lebron obviously. KD with height. Kawhi with more height, better explosiveness, Russ clearly. Which is why I give the dude a TON of credit for maximizing the athleticism he does have. He's got great bulk in a positive way. He knows how to get defenders off balance as well as anyone, and does so without having a killer 3 point shot. He's got an amazing change of pace. Truly the thing that's not visually stimulating is what everyone knows and even the biggest Harden fans, deep in their heart, would have to agree with... over-dribbling, over-reliance on step back threes at just average efficiency at best, overly slow bringing the ball up court, too many turnovers, and completely inability to move off the ball - with the exception of finally adding back door cuts in the playoffs.
Sure. That's fair. But if we're going to endlessly criticize him for bad playoff games as evidence for why he can't get it done, just don't ignore his good playoff games since they don't fit the argument.
To clarify, when I talk about "usage", I'm talking about involvement in the offense. The Usage formula doesn't measure offensive involvement. 2017 Harden was much more involved in the offense than 2015 Harden, and that's why the 2017 raw stats are better. This is just simply wrong. 2017 Harden was focused on drawing fouls more than any other year, not finishing. When he attacked the basket in years past, he'd keep both hands on the ball while extending his arms in an attempt to bait the defender into hacking him. Even if a foul wasn't called, he was still in a position to get a good FGA In 2017, he stopped doing that. Instead, as he drove, he'd get his off arm under his defender's arm, and then immediately go up for a "shot". Since he had effectively trapped the defenders arm between his arms, this move was all about drawing the foul and flailing as opposed to making the shot. It would either result in a foul (or free throws) or a turnover. The stats support this assertion. In 2015, 31% of Harden's attempts were from 0-3 feet, and 13% of his attempts were from mid-range. With 2017 Harden's 3pt/layup mentality, you'd expect his attempts from 0-3 feet to increase a lot, right? Well, only 24% of his field goal attempts came from 0-3 feet. Since his foul baiting style generally leads to either free throws or turnovers, that's a logical explanation for the decrease in attempts and increase in shooting percentage (from 0-3 feet). Those are unsustainable foul-baiting tactics which are too dependent on referee intervention. When the Spurs refused to switch the pick and roll and their defenders kept their hands up, Harden was neutralized. When he couldn't draw the foul or get by his defender, he'd settle for a low percentage step-back 3. For instance, the refs could easily take away Harden's 3pt free throws by calling a moving screen on the Rocket setting the pick.
You are right that he is strong enough but I doubt he is fast enough. I mean he isn't the slowest and he got the nifty Eurostep to go by his defenders. He can't outrun most PGs. He is so skilled that he can fool bigger players and sometimes smaller ones but I have to disagree on speed (that is up to one's perception of speed). Or just shoot over them.
And this is precisely why Harden struggles in the playoffs. His opponents are better individual defenders, have better team defenses, and have game-planned for him. All the craftiness in the world can't compensate for his physical shortcomings relative to the top tier players. For instance, over the course of the game, Kawhi Leonard is going to get many more good looks when guarded by Ariza than Harden will get when guarded by Danny Green.
I think when you say it only appears that way... it really means that's what actually happened. because his true usage actually DID increase a lot this year precisely because he was moved to PG. This may seem like a trivial "duh" comment. But I think it's more than just the time spent dribbling the ball up form the backcourt - often the full 8 seconds mind you. It's that it seemed to ultimately contribute to an offense that bogged down and became as much if not more reliant on one guy as any they've had, because by design it COMPLETELY eliminated any off ball movement from Harden. It lessened Harden's post touches to the point where you barely saw him do any. Etc. I'm an efficiency w****. I love it and think it is so important in today's day and game. That said, there is a limit to it as well. I don't view eliminating mid range shots as inherently efficient. It can be. It might not be. Frankly, I don't care entirely for the 3s, paint and FT strategy. The offense i favor is the OPEN SHOTS offense. If 90% of those shots are mid range jumpers, then so be it. This is the NBA. Outside of extreme specialists and bigs that aren't great shooters, most players can knock down open mid range jumpers with extreme efficiency. I am in favor of eliminating contested mid range jumpers, OF COURSE. In Harden and the Rockets case, I think we clearly saw that smart capable defenses were able to capitalize on the fact that the Rockets offense and Harden have basically eliminated mid range jumpers. I'd be happy to see them add it back, even if at slightly less than their normal efficiency. It does speak to his IQ evolving, but it's also troubling that his IQ has to evolve so much in this realm. He moved to the 3 point foul bait, and under arm semi-grab foul bait because of the pushback on the hold the ball out far foul bait. He does typically shoot less FT/100 possessions in the playoffs than in the regular season, though the difference isn't as big as some might expect. That said, the playoffs are obviously about matchup and consistency. And drawing fouls is SO SO dependent on the refs calling the game and the capabilities of the other team... so even if he gets the calls, or more than the calls he'd typically get in 7 out of 10 games, if he doesn't in 3, and struggles in those...it's just amplified in the playoffs. My view on his foul-baiting (that's what it is, smart, but it's what it is) is that (i) the league will constantly adjust to him. He will constantly evolve to find ways to continue to get fouls, but its kind of a zero sum game, (ii) he will still be neutralized from the FT line at inopportune times in the playoffs either by strategy or by ref'ing, and (iii) and perhaps most importantly, its a detriment to his mind-set in that he foul hunts too much - hence the jump try to draw the three foul and then throw up a crazy three or try and pass it, etc... most of which effectively become turnovers... many of those of which effectively become easy points for the other team as James lazily protests the non-call. Which isn't to say there's no benefit... clearly there is as he gets calls, gets to the line and makes at a high clip. Just those negatives take away some from the benefits. Just like with Steph... his crazy, deep pull up threes or over three shooting at times... many he makes at such ac lip it obviously works. It doesn't mean you shouldn't look past the negatives, though, which is sometimes he just pulls up for dumb shots. In Harden's case, I think the biggest thing would be go ahead and continue to foul hunt, get the the FT line a lot, etc., but he's got to do a much better job of continuing to be effective and not letting it change his mindset and be prepared to have it not work at times and be able to attack differently when it doesn't... ESPECIALLY in the playoffs.
I agree with most everything here. Only difference is I am all for the 3s layups and FTs template as a philosophy throughout the whole of a game. Where I absolutely miss his mid-range and wish we would incorporate it more, is end game situations. Down a few points or tied with about 1-2 minutes to go and the game naturally slows down (think dribble dribble dribble) is where we should incorporate that mid range game and operating out of the post. He can easily dribble into that elbow position or he can hand off hit a screen and catch the pass in position. So first benefit is it slows down the double harden and force the ball out of his hands defense. Secondly, but puts the defense in a position they aren't ready to defend against us because all game they have purposely left the mid range open. Now this is where I recognize the flaw in efficiency and the 3s layups and fts concept. Because while this offense gives you more ppp throughout the entirety of the game you are limited possessions at the end to only a few. The philosophy is built around over time law of averages dictates a higher probability of leading but it can't account for the limits in a few possessions because it's being reduced to a small sample size. So at end game you need higher probability, rather than raw efficiency. You need the points more so than you need the higher ppp a 3 gives you. Not to mention in 15 harden was a clutch MONSTER because of that step back game. I absolutely would like for him to incorporate that back in albeit not at such a high level. Give me 3 of this attempts out of his quick pull-up 3s attempts per game.
I mean its hard to argue against their offensive success int he regular season. But you start to look at the playoffs and you clearly see where it has hurt, and not just at the end of the game. You have to have more variety because the more variety you have the harder it is for the defense to defend you. The harder it is for them to defend you the more open looks you get. The more open looks you get the more efficient you can be. I mean we all know there's already x% transition, y% that will be open/semi-open threes, z% great points in the paint. We're not talking about 30% mid range. We're talking about it being a regular potential option. Even if you think it is just needed end of game situations... you have to have it in your arsenal and practicing it throughout the game. Klay's been "off" in the playoffs and the Warriors have still dominated, but I absolutely think Klay's ability to hit a mid-range, come off screens at the top of the key, etc. helps the GSW offense. Klay's been off, but KD still has a very strong mid range game. And certainly the point about Harden's clutchness is very astute.
I agree we need to incorporate more but I don't necessarily agree it has to be mid range. I think we became predictable because all our motion and movement has to do with either the ballhandler and/or screener(s) with anyone away from the ball stationary for the "space". What I would like to see more is secondary movement and more off ball screens. Rather than just standing in the corner (which I'm OK with but would like "variety" there). We need more cutting and we need more motion around screens to get open for our shooters, similar to what GSM does for curry. I do believe these are the "wrinkles" mda will be adding to the offense. We kept it pretty basic and to hardens strong suit because this is his first year running the offense from the pure PG position. I think after another off-season with the team, coaches and running the offense and new sets it will become much smoother and sophisticated. James just needs to be brought up to speed and developed on this aspect. I honestly expect next year to be hardens absolute prime and best season. 2nd year of familiarity in this system, along with being 28(which is typically players absolute peak age). He will be veteran savvy and still have athleticism to boot.
still can't believe that harden lost so much of his own fan base. personally, I'm a huge james harden fan and still believe in him. He's a badass that's gonna come out and wreck next year. Everyone will be back on the bandwagon if he wins MVP and gets to the WCF next year. Most on this board are giving up on a special talent. It's mindblowing. Emotional fans deserve a pass fresh after a playoff loss but I'd assume most people are ready to embrace this guy now that they have a clearer perspective. If you are still saying trade Harden then you are making a mistake. He is a top 5 player. The only times that teams lose top 5 players is to injury, free agency, or the player forcing a trade. It's never because teams give up on them. 2017-18 season will be great if we add depth (hopefully another star eventually) and stay healthy
If harden were european he would be loved more by most of houston, just like most of the astros players. Thank god the rest of the WORLD appreciates the beard. number 28 most popular athlete in the world, and thats after snaquille gave him shaqtin a fool mvp in 2016, and being constantly robbed of mvp despite a credible site like bbreff saying you deserve it
NBA.com/stats easily refutes the over dribbling and taking near the whole 8 seconds to bring the ball up claim. He was very near the top in time of possession per touch though.
