I think your initial reactions stem from last year. Between last year's Giles and this year's Giles, its actually quite a noticeable difference. He's spotting the slider early in the count to get ahead. He's had better fastball location. He's obviously converted the bulk of the saves being given to him, and has yet to have that massive meltdown that plagued not just him, but all the potential closers last year. He's still got an elite slider that is almost impossible to lay off, but if a batter digs in and decides simply not to swing, Giles will have to continue to pound the zone with slider/FB (and if his location is off, it can be hittable). At the end of the day, Giles will continue to improve... he's a young pitcher with a live arm who's never really had to "pitch" in all of his stops. Pitch sequencing, deception, location... all go above/beyond simple fastball speed and slider break. As long as he continues to improve, he still remains one of the top weapons the Astros have on their staff.
Giles reminds me a bit of the Jose Valverde days, he'll get the save but he'll make you nervous as hell before he does.
And when you pitch one inning/game... just one bad outing over the 1 month of the season will leave a slightly inflated ERA for several weeks. His HR's that he gave up last year were unacceptable. He's improved significantly from last year in that regard, and just simply getting ahead of guys in the count.
I see what you are saying. I am just not going to comment on the issue for several weeks or we are going to end up having the same argument repeatedly. I think we all agree it is tiresome.
It takes two to argue. You either agree or disagree that he's been better this year, with a much more balanced approach to pitching. The Astros need Giles to be as good as possible. They also need Gregerson to be better, Harris to lock down a setup role, and eventually they'll even need the walking corpse of Tony Sipp to make a contribution. They will not survive with Devo pitching in every critical situation all year. He's starting to go multiple innings/appearance, multiple times/week... and unfortunately, in the long run, that will not be sustainable.
From this point forward, you will no longer be privy to my thoughts on the bullpen situation. I have given my official stance above. It is subject to change without notice.
Still think the big need is not for the bullpen, but for a number 2 starter, as McCullers is going to hit an innings limit (or be sent to the DL list for several stints to limit his innings). I'm also starting to think that Luhnow will go for a 3 month rental, as the guys like Quintana that have a few years on their contracts are requiring too many prospects in return. From the rental side, Jason Vargas from the Royals is starting to get a lot of attention. He's coming off Tommy John and in a contract year, but he's lighting it up this year. In 7 starts, he's sporting a 0.92 WHIP and 1.01 era. He'll be a nice rental for some team if he keeps it up.
So basically the only bad thing you listed takes about 500-600 innings to provide useful data and he's pitched less 100 for Astros. His career ERA is 2.6 something even though still outside threshold for usefulness unless regressed.
fun thread. What I know is: -the Astros have a top 3-5 bullpen, possibly higher -Giles, Gregerson, and Harris have all had shots at closer -Each of the 3 has had different issues at different times in the role -Each of the 3 is a very good RP -Giles is still an elite K guy and by far the best in that respect of those 3 Many fans' perspectives: A closer's job is to end the game every time. When a SP gives up 1 run every other inning, it's a "quality start". If a RP gives up a run more than once every 7-10 innings, he's perceived as untrustworthy. If a SP throws a shutout and then has a garbage outing, people will say "nah he's good, look at the shutout." If a RP has 10 scoreless outings and then gives up runs in 3 out of 4 outings, he's a joke and on thin ice. I'm not trying to make fun of anyone. But I think there's a psychological/perception type of issue at play. And therefore, for many fans, a lack of full, total trust in a closer is really the norm unless you have a ~top 5 RP of the decade. Fans hate losing games they think the team is supposed" to win. But I don't think you need a top 5 RP of the decade to win a world series. You need a good team, and a good closer. Just like you need a good 3rd SP but not 3 elite #1's in the rotation.
If you are referring to the Seattle game as the one Giles caused them to lose, the bases loaded no out no run situation in the fifth inning contributed to that loss just as much.
Listen I share your concerns with Giles as well. I'm also pretty sure that everyone on here isn't very confident every time Hinch puts him in (no matter what the situation). That said there's a TON of baseball to be played and things will work themself out one way or another. It's nice to know we have Devo, and as it's been pointed out numerous times, it's up to Hinch to use him in the most effective way and in the most critical part of a game. He's been the only one in our pen who's been consistent over the past two seasons. Look how dominant Harris was last yr before the all-star break only to lose his effectiveness over the second half. So give it some time to play out as you're going to make yourself CRAZY riding the highs and the lows from game to game.
Random chat question on Fangraphs.... : Which division race gets wrapped up first? Which goes down to the final series? Jeff Sullivan: Sure seems like the Astros will get the West locked up in like a week and a half.
Hell, man, I've been saying the same thing since last June. Not a referendum on Giles or anything, I just want a Miller/Chapman-type horse to complement Devenski and make the pen that much deeper (Devo can't pitch every day, Harris has seemed to wear down in the 2nd half the past 2 years...).
I was just looking at that this morning; they lead by 7; I don't believe any other lead is bigger than 2.5. Astros and the rest of the West are likely to regress toward the mean - but if they can build a big enough cushion.... yeah, they could really put this out of reach sooner rather than later - ESPECIALLY if they've fixed their issues v. Rangers.
It is getting close to point that Rangers could win remainder of games between two and still need to be better against rest of the league. I would like thw Astros to lock up division, but Rangers still go for wild card. There future doesn't look good and i don't want them getting anything for Darvish.
"Poise the cause in justice's equal scales, Whose beam stands sure, whose rightful cause prevails." -- Shakespeare
