I'm with you in thought and belief except that hasn't been the case this series. They are not calling fouls on Kawhi at all and they have not been giving Harden his contact fouls. They have been getting away with touch fouls and physical play and harden has had to play through the physicality which is a reason his % at the rim has dropped uncannily from the regular season. He has adjusted and hes gotten better at finishing but at no point do I think Harden being 1 of 7 at the rim is normal, at all.
Who here has a feeling that Lou will have an impactful game tonight? His shooting will come alive and be a critical impact on the game?
Good point. But as the series wears on, one would think the aberations would regress to the mean. To the Spurs credit, they have made a concerted effort in playing disciplined defense on Harden's (and the Rockets') drives. But Harden is tough enough to withstand the no calls and finish if he focuses on finishing instead of drawing the foul. I didn't watch game 4, but I read a post on here that Harden was noticeably focused more on finishing, thus making for a very efficient game for him. Can you confirm this?
He was more focused on finishing through contact. The problem is we only shot 10 free throws all game and 2 were in garbage time. So it's a weird paradigm, where Harden is finishing strong in traffic yet drawing much less fouls? Props to both tbh. The defenders are keeping their hands up for the most part (but still fouling a bunch) and Harden has quit looking for calls and rather trying to finish (for the most part).
Sounds to me the Spurs are really in trouble if Harden is focused on finishing instead of fishing for fouls. Because that significantly reduces the probability of a turnover (lost possession) due to a non-call. If Harden can continue to overcome the officiating bias and convert at a good clip like in game 4, then the non-calls really become irrelevant.
I agree but it matters how much contact do they let go? If he is getting fouled and losing the ball with no calls that's frustrating and if they are getting away with physicality his % at the rim goes down
True. But I have to believe that EVEN with the biased officiating in this series, that and overly egregious contact will not be let go. Seriously, many times when Harden would "hunt" for fouls in the earlier games, there may have been contact....but it wasn't so bad to throw him off keel. I'm talking about being swiped and hit or even hammered at the basket. Those wouldn't/shouldn't be overlooked. I don't think that will happen.
If they go small and put Kawhi on Harden, I'd play that version of the offense that we used on Memphis earlier this year. You leave Harden high above the three point line and make Kawhi defend Harden there, which takes him out of the 5 man style defense. If he helps, Harden makes a move when Kawhi's back is turned. If he doesn't try to be part of the 5 man defense, then 4 on 4 is super easy to exploit. If they don't want to use their best defender on Harden, that's to our advantage. Green is too weak to stay with Harden play after play even though he's a pretty good defender. I'd like to add something to my list on the first page: Every single time that Gasol scores in the post, run down the court and try to score on him. He's almost always gassed and slow to get back. If they want to work hard in the post and slow down the game, make them hustle immediately on defense. It will punish their efforts and give us an easier way to score after they worked hard for their points. He's not a young man anymore, so exploit that.
That's a great point irt Pau Gasol. Pace had been the most common theme dictating victories this series. If they show it down with Pau in the post I love the idea of sprinting back on offense and put pressure on their old and slow Big's. This is why we saw A Lot of 3/4 passes last game from harden that Clutchfans hates so much. It's pushing the pace and forcing the defense to exert energy while not really doing so on offense.
Adjustment: pump artificial noise in the arena. Both cities' fans are terrible at creating a playoff atmosphere. Drop them churros and make some noise.
Honestly, I don't think Aldridge is much different. I think he's still laboring on that knee so keep the pressure on him too. I mean, even if you're not trying to score on him/them if you go down and try to box him out for a rebound, that will put pressure on them too. Limit recovery time and they'll have to push their offense deeper and deeper into the shot clock (yet another disadvantage).
I think the big concern here is that when you drop the churros, a lot of noise will be made at first, but then it will quickly settle into eating quietly, not watching the game and scavenging for unclaimed churros. I suggest that the Spurs wear their alternate churro jerseys.
By staying big, the Spurs invite us to push the pace and generate easy looks. The logical move for Popovich would be to put Gasol or Aldridge on the bench. I'd personally be wary of Gasol off the bench because he'd absolutely kill Anderson in the post (especially when Capela's out of the game). We'd almost have to guard Gasol with Harden in this scenario, and I hate that mismatch. Also, I'm curious to see if Aldridge still matches up with Ariza early, or whether the Spurs will just slide him over to Capela. Whoever Aldridge is guarding needs to be in PnR because he's simply not as good as Gasol at the point of attack. Aldridge really excels as an off-the-ball help defender at this stage of his career (which we saw on display in games 2 and 3). If the Spurs go smaller, Capela must shine. He'll have to catch the ball cleanly and finish--something that he's been struggling with for weeks now. But that's where all the adjustments point. If I'm the Spurs, I live with Capela having to make the plays in traffic. I think Harden can set him up for success, and we see a frustrated Spurs team go down 3-2 in a hard fought game 5.
If I were Pop......I'd start Mills, Green, Betrans, Kawhi, and Pau. I'd spot up Betrans in the right corner and put the other three around the top of the arc and leave the left corner empty with Kawhi on the left hash. I'd put Pau in the left low block and get him the ball from the start and let him iso post up on Capela with everybody else spotted up ala hakeem and the mid-90's old Rockets. Old school post up action with Pau s the focal point. I'd leave LaMarcus on the bench to defend Anderson when he comes in the game and do the same thing to Anderson that Pau would be doing to Capela. Posting him up ad nauseam down low. I'd bring LaMarcus, Manu, and Kyle Anderson off the bench as my main rotation with Simmons seeing minutes if the Spurs needed more defense. Now, if I were MDA/Bzdelik this is what I would expect to happen and prepare defensively for since I'm lacking a big. If Pops starts this line-up I'd be working on rubbing off Ariza's defensive matchup (likely Bertans) on Harden. That should be easy enough and should mean our offense will be ok. But defensively.......I dunno. I know if the Spurs iso my big man in the lie blocks that were in trouble. And in my opinion this should be the key to tonight's game. How do we defensively counter Pops isoing his big on the low block against our big?
Such a great point. And you can say the same for Aldridge. He was gassed in the 3rd quarter of the last game. PACE, PACE, PACE. Make those bigs run, run, run, run. Rockets advantage is attrition over the whole game.
That won't be enough if the Spurs foul out Capela and Anderson while also slowing the game down to a crawl.
If the Rockets make their 3s at the pace of game 1 and game 4.......I'll take it. That bodes very well for the Rockets and would favor the Rockets more than the Spurs' post Bigs would hurt the Rockets in the post.
