A quick check I did earlier found that 4% of starters threw 95 around 2004 and 14% threw 95% a year or two ago. 4 seamers clock in on average at 93 mph this year. In 2004, 90.1. You could be right that the top end guys would outweigh the bottom end. There just is no proof. There is proof that guys throw harder today and that throwing harder increases swing and miss. There is proof that K rate is correlates to velocity by about a 25%. In 2009, guys averaging 90 mph averaged 6 Ks per 9 innings. Guys averaging 93 in 2009, 8 Ks per 9. This year, K rate is 8.24. In 2004, it is 6.60. If all other things are equal (granted this is an assumption), the majority of today's contact problem appear to be the result of velocity. I know this matter nothing to you. Guys were just better hitters back then. The pitchers were better back then at other things to compensate for their lack today's velocity. I have nothing to refute this except occam's razor which isn't the most scientific.
Great data. But if you look at the K data today, they're not just striking out on faster fastballs. They're striking out more on all pitches. Guys who don't throw as fast are racking up more K's than their counterparts did 10 years ago. I know your rationale is that the pitching is advancing more so than the hitting, and thus that's why hitters aren't making as much contact... and while that may be a component, it's not the end-all explanation. Things remain cyclical in this game. There's been a power drought the last few years that is starting to turn back towards the hitters. Perhaps contact and averages will correct themselves too. The Astros as a whole have had better hitters in their lineup... hitters who didn't strikeout at record rates and were able to both get on base and hit for power.
Hitters time the fastball and work off of it as they wouldn't be able to catch up to it. If it is faster, eveything else works better as it is hard to slow swing down if misread ball. K rates going up every generation except when they lowered the mound is not cyclical. We have 100 years that says it isn't. I don't think pitching is more advanced except that pitchers throw harder. That last part is fact. It is also fact that as velocity rises, strikeouts generally increase. You can talk around the issue all you want, but this is fact. You have not provided one hard fact to show that velocity and strikeout rates don't have correlation...just arguments that depend on the underlying assumption that hitters today suck. On hitters being better back then...won't you be my neighbor?
Not saying hitters today suck... they're just worse at making contact. Some of that may be because of all the "blazing fastballs", but I see guys who top out at 86 getting 9 K's in games (see last night). How do you explain K rates going up for guys who throw slower now? Also, not one of those "things were just better back then" guys... just that the Astros happened to have a collection of elite hitters on one team/one lineup at various points in their history that happens to be better than the core they have now. Power is cyclical, scoring has been cyclical, contact can be cyclical (and its a very down cycle at the moment). Not sure why this irks you so much.
Not familiar with west, but I believe Gregg is the one with the wide zone. Zones today are probably close in width to his, but much lower and a little higher.
There's wide zones... and then there's Erik Gregg zones. They are NOT as bad today as what he was featuring.
Velocity is only part of the equation so there are exceptions. Please show something that shows that K rates are going up in general for guys throwing slower.
Erik Gregg's zone was all over the place. He was so big he couldn't stabilize himself behind the catcher thus he couldn't really see things accurately and he'd just randomly make calls.
Just looks at the K rates for the Astros starting pitchers who top out at 90 over the last 3 years... and compare that to anybody from the 2000's. Look at Verlander's velocity drop yet K rate actually going up. Look at Bumgarner.... Ray... or other guys who don't routinely throw 95+, yet are the league leaders in K now. On average, their velocities don't match what the comparable K leaders were 10 years ago. I know your argument is that all of baseball is throwing faster... but the biggest rise is not necessarily in the starters only. I agree that middle/back-end relief is now predominated by flame throwers.
Hunt a pecking examples that may or may not fit your notion without looking at environment as a whole. It shouldn't be difficult to chart average K rate and velocity of pitchers today and compare it to similar chart back then. It might be better to use 2016 as 2017 data is using a different system. I could do this, but you would just pretend it doesn't matter as it doesn't fit your preconceived idea that hitters are worse at contact manly due to their abilities without regard to huge change in environment.
Keuchel did win Pitcher of the Month for April. Kind of surprised considering Santana had a better month, but one less start.
Surprised it wasn't Sale. He had a great FIP , great ERA, great xFIP, plays in a large market, and was the darling off-season acquisition. Seems like he had a little bit of everything, but guess not a enough of one thing.
Quit whining and just be happy DK won!! "Plays in a large market"? What the hell does that have anything to do with it (it's pitcher of the month NOT the Cy Young)?
I get that. I wasn't expecting it and literally laughed out loud. There was no sarcasm intended to be implied as I appreciated the ribbing.
