Astros Trade option(s)

First time poster.

Fangraphs had an article the other day about Yuli Gurriel and his offense so far in the big leagues. His numbers are all around very bad and said given his age, likely not going to improve. It was a pretty depressing piece.

Everyone has talked about the Astros trading for pitching but they recommended a hitter is the best way to go. At the end they mentioned Goldschmidt. The cost will be enormous if the Astros went that route. The comment section there were surprised they did not bring up Reed. If the Astros are not willing to wait on Reed to improve, will they go big or smaller in a deal for a hitter to put at 1st base? Maybe another outfielder who can hit? Made me think they should go all in and get a Kyle Schwarber or a Freddie Freeman type. Cost will be great but well worth it and put them somewhere in the middle of this lineup behind Correa or in front of him. Both are younger than Goldschmidt. I'm assuming Martes and Kyle Tucker will headline in any such deal. Or a smaller piece but can hit and play first or somewhere in the outfield.

What do you guys think?

 

I mentioned Kyle Schwarber because many people think he will be traded to the AL one day. He is blocked at 1st base there with Rizzo and he is no outfielder. He looks uncomfortable there and another potential injury waiting to happen.

 

Can't have too many pitching prospects and I don't think as good as Martes. Reed will probably be part of that deal and he replaces Freeman in Atlanta in a rebuild.

The Astros are a contending team and relying on a 40 year old veteran and a 32 year old prospect behind Correa for power and consistency is worrisome. Guys like Gattis, McCann, and Reddick are better placed in other areas of the lineup. We need a guy with a combination of power, on base skills, and hitting skills to drive in all these runs if Correa goes down swinging or other out scenario with less than two outs with runners on base. I'm more comfortable with a Freedie Freeman type than the other options we already have.

 

I recommend reading the Fan Graphs article. It has much more detail on Yuli's offensive profile and a more than 2 game sample size. He's 32 and going on 33 which means he's declining too. Also when he was playing for Japan, a better league compared to Cuban league, there were some underlining concerns with K/BB ratios. He has bad plate discipline and does not work the count well with bad batted ball results and exit velocities. He's also misplaced at 1st base given his defensive skills.

Fan graphs piece makes me think this will be a bad signing along with another example where a team signed a similar contract of a Cuban or international player that failed miserably a few years back. Forgot his name.

 

If Atlanta, record wise, is way out of it in late May, I can see them doing anything. Last year, if I remember correctly according to MLBTR, Atlanta's GM was asked if Freeman was available. He said nobody approached him about it. There was no definite yes or no. Nothing is cost prohibitive until what is being offered and exchanged and agreed upon or rejected takes place, and nothing out there I have read he is 100% unavailable. Also I have read, I believe it was Fangraphs, it mentioned their over abundance of pitching prospects compared to hitters. A trade for more hitters will help better allocate their resources for a rebuild if they continue to be bad.

Everything you said is pure speculation unless you give me something more concrete concerning their views on Freeman and their consistent 100% unwillingness to move him and no matter how good the return can potentially be.

I did not say it will only take Reed and Martes. Tucker, Fisher, and/or other combination of parts for a player his value will certainly will be involved too. We do have have the prospects esp. compared to anyone in the division, to make a big splash in the trade market this season and improve the team even more. The question will be, are the Astros willing to wait out any learning curve concerning players like Reed/ Fisher, and Gurriel with a contending team?

 

I think it will come down to how long will the Astros be patient with him and other prospects adjustment periods. It's a contending team and adding another proven piece can go a long way. Projection systems had us as one of the best in baseball in W/L category before the season. An all star caliber middle of the lineup player will probably put us ahead of the Cubs in terms of WAR. Of course, the Cubs have the pieces to do something too.

I don't consider Quintana among the elite in pitching according to pure stuff and batter ball quality prevention outcomes. Don't get me wrong, he's been really good but if the Astros are going for a pitcher, go for Archer. He's up there with Sale. Also, if Keuchel or LMJ go down like last season, we're screwed anyways and depleting our system for Quintana will not be our best interest. It's just safer to get a hitter and Quintana has pitched a lot of innings in the past few seasons. A safer bet is the position player and then just out slug everyone.

 

Oh, I meant to say if both go down at the same time like last season.

You can similarly say the same with the hitters on this team. Beltran can regress a lot because of age and injuries and depending on him in the 5th spot currently. Bregman with a sophomore slump and struggles. Does not have the track record yet. Reddick with his huge L/R splits and which Reddick will we see? LA, Oak version or something in between. Of course, there is Gurriel. All of these guys they're counting on in very important spots in the lineup with important production situations.

I'm not saying which direction they take is much more better than the other. More preference than anything but I agree with Fan graphs on this. The Astros do have the pitching depth with Peacock, Devenski, Mchugh, Feliz and other pieces in the upper minors like Paulino and potential breakout pitcher Armenteros, who I think can help later in the year. I will rather trade for a pitcher for depth purposes with lesser upside if they go that route.

Quintana is a very valuable pitcher. No doubt here. But he has accumulated a lot of innings in last few years and he's not as safe as a position player will be. Another thing to take into account, he is not a power pitcher and more unlikely to shut down very good lineups in the post season. He's not a Sale or Archer and other elite pitchers in the game. He's second tier according to many metrics in this area. His batted ball profile is not where I am willing to give up our best prospects for. Hitters are more safer anyways. Take them and play them everyday.

Btw, both Keuchel and McCullers are Cy Young candidates coming into the year. Even someone at Fan Graphs picked McCullers as the potential winner this upcoming season. This was a very under rated staff coming into the year by the main stream media.

 

Correction:

contrary to what the main stream media said about it.