1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

[for the fwiw bin] Rox 1 of 5 teams with winning records against Top 10

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by heypartner, Mar 2, 2017.

Page 6 of 6
  1. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Member

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2002
    Messages:
    46,550
    Likes Received:
    6,132
    Thanks.

    But looking at this, it kind of tells us what we already know.

    Spurs and warriors are ahead of everyone.

    Cavs are still the best in the east.

    Clippers can be dangerous if they get it together.

    We are slightly ahead of the rest (east teams probably play weaker +.500 teams)
     
    #101 Mr. Clutch, Apr 3, 2017
  2. J.R.

    J.R. Member

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2008
    Messages:
    114,379
    Likes Received:
    177,381
    Atlanta:
    vs. Top 10: 9-14
    vs. .500+: 14-17
    vs. losing record: 25-21

    Boston:
    vs. Top 10: 9-14
    vs. .500+: 14-17
    vs. losing record: 36-10

    Brooklyn:
    vs. Top 10: 1-25
    vs. .500+: 4-34
    vs. losing record: 14-25

    Charlotte:
    vs. Top 10: 6-20
    vs. .500+: 12-23
    vs. losing record: 24-18

    Chicago:
    vs. Top 10: 14-13
    vs. .500+: 18-21
    vs. losing record: 20-18

    Cleveland:
    vs. Top 10: 11-10
    vs. .500+: 17-14
    vs. losing record: 32-13

    Dallas:
    vs. Top 10: 8-20
    vs. .500+: 13-26
    vs. losing record: 19-18

    Denver:
    vs. Top 10: 9-18
    vs. .500+: 12-26
    vs. losing record: 24-14

    Detroit:
    vs. Top 10: 7-17
    vs. .500+: 12-22
    vs. losing record: 23-20

    Golden State:
    vs. Top 10: 19-6
    vs. .500+: 29-8
    vs. losing record: 34-6

    Houston:
    vs. Top 10: 13-12
    vs. .500+: 18-18
    vs. losing record: 34-7

    Indiana:
    vs. Top 10: 9-16
    vs. .500+: 12-22
    vs. losing record: 25-18

    LA Clippers:
    vs. Top 10: 12-13
    vs. .500+: 20-16
    vs. losing record: 27-15

    Los Angeles Lakers:
    vs. Top 10: 4-24
    vs. .500+: 9-30
    vs. losing record: 13-25

    Memphis:
    vs. Top 10: 14-16
    vs. .500+: 17-20
    vs. losing record: 25-15

    Miami:
    vs. Top 10: 9-15
    vs. .500+: 15-21
    vs. losing record: 22-19

    Milwaukee:
    vs. Top 10: 9-16
    vs. .500+: 13-20
    vs. losing record: 27-17

    Minnesota:
    vs. Top 10: 8-19
    vs. .500+: 12-25
    vs. losing record: 18-20

    New Orleans:
    vs. Top 10: 5-24
    vs. .500+: 11-29
    vs. losing record: 22-15

    New York:
    vs. Top 10: 2-24
    vs. .500+: 6-30
    vs. losing record: 23-18

    Oklahoma City:
    vs. Top 10: 12-15
    vs. .500+: 16-21
    vs. losing record: 27-12

    Orlando:
    vs. Top 10: 6-19
    vs. .500+: 11-25
    vs. losing record: 16-25

    Philadelphia:
    vs. Top 10: 5-21
    vs. .500+: 8-29
    vs. losing record: 20-20

    Phoenix:
    vs. Top 10: 5-23
    vs. .500+: 7-32
    vs. losing record: 15-24

    Portland:
    vs. Top 10: 8-19
    vs. .500+: 11-23
    vs. losing record: 27-15

    Sacramento:
    vs. Top 10: 8-21
    vs. .500+: 12-28
    vs. losing record: 18-19

    San Antonio:
    vs. Top 10: 18-6
    vs. .500+: 23-11
    vs. losing record: 36-6

    Toronto:
    vs. Top 10: 10-12
    vs. .500+: 17-16
    vs. losing record: 30-14

    Utah:
    vs. Top 10: 8-16
    vs. .500+: 14-20
    vs. losing record: 33-10

    Washington:
    vs. Top 10: 7-15
    vs. .500+: 16-18
    vs. losing record: 30-13
     
    #102 J.R., Apr 3, 2017
    Vivi, BigMaloe and heypartner like this.
  3. heypartner

    heypartner Member

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 1999
    Messages:
    63,513
    Likes Received:
    59,011
    See @J.R. post. We are still above .500 at 13-12. I just double-checked, too

    And Utah is really bad.
     
    #103 heypartner, Apr 3, 2017
    BigMaloe likes this.
  4. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 1999
    Messages:
    129,455
    Likes Received:
    40,028
    .500 teams? What about contenders?

    Golden State
    San Antonio
    Cleveland
    Boston

    Where are we against them?

    DD
     
    #104 DaDakota, Apr 4, 2017
  5. heypartner

    heypartner Member

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 1999
    Messages:
    63,513
    Likes Received:
    59,011
    Can't tell if serious. You don't remember our record against them off the top of you head?

    Bos is 3-6 ( including against us)
    We are 4-8

    Same record But they play less games. Do you consider them a contender but not us?

    Cleveland is 7-2 against Bos, TOR and WAS
     
    #105 heypartner, Apr 4, 2017
  6. basketballholic

    basketballholic Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2013
    Messages:
    17,516
    Likes Received:
    4,171
    Yeah, we are one of the better also-rans.

    Note: Variance may help a team win a game or two in the playoffs. But it won't help them win a championship.
     
    #106 basketballholic, Apr 4, 2017
  7. asianballa23

    asianballa23 Member

    Joined:
    May 24, 2003
    Messages:
    3,273
    Likes Received:
    658
    still gotta go thru GS/SA, hell, add Utah too if we ever see them in the playoff, all those 3 teams can whoop rockets' ass any day.
     
    #107 asianballa23, Apr 4, 2017
  8. basketballholic

    basketballholic Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2013
    Messages:
    17,516
    Likes Received:
    4,171
    The Final tallies

    We finished:

    13-13 against the other top ten teams.

    20-21 against all playoff teams.

    20-23 against all teams at .500 or better.

    35-4 against teams below .500.

    35-6 against all lottery teams.

    12-13 against Western Conference Playoff teams.

    8-8 against Eastern Conference Playoff teams.

    6-15 against the top 7 defenses in the NBA.

    19-23 against top 15 defenses in the NBA.

    36-4 against the bottom 15 defenses in the NBA.

    11-6 against the top 7 offenses.

    26-15 against top 15 offenses.

    29-12 against bottom 15 offenses.
     
    #108 basketballholic, Apr 13, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 13, 2017
    Lawlruschang, napalm06, BigMaloe and 4 others like this.
  9. jae713

    jae713 Member

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2008
    Messages:
    2,529
    Likes Received:
    926
    Would like to see how other playoff teams did for some perspective.
     
    #109 jae713, Apr 13, 2017
    BigMaloe and Vivi like this.
  10. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Member

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2002
    Messages:
    46,550
    Likes Received:
    6,132
    OKC is ranked 7th in defense, for what it's worth
     
    #110 Mr. Clutch, Apr 13, 2017
  11. basketballholic

    basketballholic Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2013
    Messages:
    17,516
    Likes Received:
    4,171
    #111 basketballholic, Apr 13, 2017
  12. heypartner

    heypartner Member

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 1999
    Messages:
    63,513
    Likes Received:
    59,011
    10th
    They would be 7th had they never played us. We knocked them down to 10, probably by ourselves.
     
    #112 heypartner, Apr 13, 2017
    Lawlruschang and BigMaloe like this.
  13. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Member

    Joined:
    May 16, 2000
    Messages:
    25,432
    Likes Received:
    13,390
    Not really a big deal, I suspect, but how does DRtg correlate to pace and/or ORtg or both?

    Point of the question is that I'd assume there's definitely correlation there. I think the truest measure of defense would be an adjusted DRtg which uses some statistically derived formula to "equalize" pace out of the equation. And to be clear, I'm not talking about the fact that pace is already accounted for because its per 100 possessions. I'm talking about the fact that a team with higher pace is likely to have higher DRtg, even if its a better defensive team than a slower paced, lower DRtg team. Make sense?

    I'm not arguing this for the Rockets sake. As I noted, not really a big deal cause we all have eyes. They struggle defensively, struggle grabbing boards, and get bogged down offensively and a little tighter on their outside shots against better defensive teams [as do pretty much all teams].
     
    #113 JayZ750, Apr 13, 2017
  14. basketballholic

    basketballholic Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2013
    Messages:
    17,516
    Likes Received:
    4,171
    Takes pace out of the equation and breaks defenses down by how many points they give up per possession defended. Pace doesn't matter.
     
    #114 basketballholic, Apr 13, 2017
  15. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Member

    Joined:
    May 16, 2000
    Messages:
    25,432
    Likes Received:
    13,390
    This is exactly what I said I wasn't arguing about. normalizing something per possession doesn't completely take pace out of the equation.

    I'm not sure how pace further impacts DRtg historically, but I am sure it does, one way or the other. One would have to look at all seasons historically, maybe even individual games, graph pace against DRtg, understand the relationship, and then adjust DRtg to normalize for that correlation.
     
    #115 JayZ750, Apr 13, 2017
  16. napalm06

    napalm06 Huge Flopping Fan

    Joined:
    Sep 30, 2008
    Messages:
    26,941
    Likes Received:
    30,572
    This is pretty much why I don't have an abundance of confidence going into the playoffs.
     
    #116 napalm06, Apr 13, 2017
  17. OTMax

    OTMax Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2013
    Messages:
    8,352
    Likes Received:
    3,670
    We finished 18th overall in defense efficiency..we hovered around 14-15 for a while, so definitely need to improve there. Let's hope we bring the intensity in the play-offs!!
     
    #117 OTMax, Apr 13, 2017
  18. heypartner

    heypartner Member

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 1999
    Messages:
    63,513
    Likes Received:
    59,011
    Yes it does. You might have a different definition of Possession. Possessions in the NBA (at least for the purpose of stats like Team ORtg/DRtg) are defined similarly to NFL possessions. A possession lasts until a change of possession, not anything related to how many times the 24 second clock is reset. So, except for slight variance in change of possession due to End of Quarters, defined by who wins the Tip, and who has the ball last, each team has the same amount of possessions in a game.

    Pace is a per 48 minute measure of possessions. But, for a 48 minute game, Points / Pace * 100 equals ORtg/DRtg

    Go to basketball-reference...this formula below and ORtg/DRtg rankings will be exactly the same numbers.

    Team PPG / Pace * 100 = ORtg (once you account for overtime games)​

    Of course, you first must account for overtime games by turning Team PPG into a per 48 minute score....otherwise, the teams that played more OT games will have slightly higher ORtg/DRtg than they really deserve.

    Here is the list of Teams ranked by ORtg, and it shows their Pace. (Copied from bball-ref.). I added columns to the right to create PPG per 48 minutes to account for overtime games, then divided by Pace and multiplied by 100. The Rankings are identical, with minor difference probably due basketball-reference rounding the Pace Column and ORtg Column

    [​IMG]

    bottomline: since that formula (PTS per 48 / Pace * 100) is exactly the same as ORtg ... Pace is indeed accounted for in ORtg.
     
    #118 heypartner, Apr 13, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 13, 2017
  19. heypartner

    heypartner Member

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 1999
    Messages:
    63,513
    Likes Received:
    59,011
    Didn't see this comment before. Yeah, that makes sense. I think it's better to say "A game with a higher pace" has higher DRtg, rather than "A team with a higher pace." but that's a subtle distinction.

    I think fundamentally you are getting at a truism ... a game with a faster pace is bad for the defense....and there will be more situations per game where the defense isn't set...or is in a 4 on 4 situation or worse. It's true that the fewer players in the play is better for the offense. I think that is the heart and soul of 7 Seconds or Less, too....together with MDA is more concerned with Net ORtg than DRtg.

    I'd also be curious to see if a game at a faster pace results in a higher FT:FG ratio...or ORB%, which are two of the noted Four Factors. While Offensive Rebounds reset the clock and theoretically slow down the Pace, because the possession last longer, many offensive rebounds also result in a very quick re-attempt.
     
    #119 heypartner, Apr 13, 2017
  20. basketballholic

    basketballholic Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2013
    Messages:
    17,516
    Likes Received:
    4,171
    Pace is dictated by the dominant, better team.
     
    #120 basketballholic, Apr 13, 2017
(You must log in or sign up to post here.)
Page 6 of 6

Share This Page

Style
ClutchFans Dark

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Rockets Content

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now