Neither Tucker or Martes is a good enough prospect on their own to headline a Quintana deal Any potential trade would almost certainly require both Tucker and Martes, plus considerably more in order for the Sox to accept it Sox have no reason to settle for less
There's realistically no possible way you could pull off a deal for Abreu, Robertson AND Quintana. I'm still all for getting Quintana. Send Martes, Paulino, Reed, Fisher and Sierra and see if they take it. Or maybe you can pull off Martes, Tucker and Fisher for Quintana. Sure, each of those three guys can easily develop into above average major leaguers, but I don't want to get caught up in a prospect's potential (a potential that the majority of top 100 prospects never FULLY realize). Give me the sure thing in Quintana that would likely put us over the hump for the next 3-4 seasons instead of the three/four prospects that COULD be good players.
Quintana loses value every game he pitches in majors. Astros don't lose value (service time) unless guys suck or get hurt. From what I am hearing from Chicago, Astros aren't budging from only one of those guys, Astros made the best offer, and CWS are not budging from wanting two of those guys. Astros are likely to offer less at deadline than they are now as they won't have Quintana for first half of the year. CWS are going to count on market to improve at deadline (i.e. some team doing something stupid) because right now the market says he's not worth more than that. A lot of emotion (and wins for some teams are worth a ton more to legitimize the emotion) at deadline, so teams do overpay then but usually not enough to cover lost value during first half (except relievers...teams get paid crazy for relievers at deadline). Tyson Ross didn't make it to deadline and serves as an example of the risk CWS are assuming.
Sox are not going to take a lesser package. They do not have to settle for second tier prospects on their final blue chip trade piece to aid their rebuild. Astros fans need to look at this from the Sox perspective and understand Martes + Tucker are non-negotiable as part of the deal You're making an assumption that the White Sox are all the enamored with the Astros prospects, I have my doubts otherwise a deal would likely have been made by now. I really don't think Quintana will lose much value from now until the deadline. Three additional seasons of control for cheap is always going to be valuable, especially to a contender. Sox will patiently wait for a suitor to step up and offer a good enough package and he will be traded. If the Astros are that team, great for them. Windows of contention only last so long, when you are in position to compete a team absolutely should go for it. Tyson Ross was also a free agent to be, and nowhere near as a good as Quintana.
One bullet in the Astros' chamber that is rarely played is the out-of-nowhere June deal, otherwise known as The Carlos Beltran. If you'll recall, our deal for him actually went down on June 24 and it was a stroke of genius. The Royals had won 83 games in '03 and had a promising young core. Beltran was a FA2B but KC brought him back (rather than deal him in the offseason) to make a run in '04. They promptly fell flat on their faces (eventually losing 100+ games) and the Astros pounced - before all the deadline shenanigans. Now, the situation is different with CWS, obviously - they have no expectations to compete this year so it's not like the Astros can take advantage of dashed hopes. BUT... they could be judicious in how the evaluate their own chances and get a jump on the deadline, usurping their competition and getting an extra month out of Quintana.
Tyson Ross was not a free agent to be as he was still under club control. Padres decided to not offer him a contract. Tyson Ross was coming off a season almost as good as Quintana, though without as long a history. He would have been one of top pitchers traded last year if not hurt. If Quintana gets hurt, CWS lose a lot more because Quintana is a better player on a guaranteed contract. Quintana having a lot of value left does not mean he will not have lost value. He's a great player so he's going to burn up value in a year CWS have decided to punt. My assumption that CWS is based on rumor that Astros are top bidder. CWS asking price so far has been higher than any team has been willing to offer. They appear comfortable accepting the risk that Quintana stays healthy and as effective as ever such that they can get a team to pay more for less once teams know more about their 2017 seasons.
The only argument for waiting to deal Quintana is that the deadline will inflate his price. I think this is very flawed logic, especially in the face of all the other factors: Quintana's stock cannot get higher. He's not suddenly going to put up better numbers than he has the last few years. The upside from a performance perspective is very limited. Quintana could suffer a catastrophic injury at any time. In fact, the odds of a serious injury and the resulting decrease in value likely far outweigh the difference in value between what Houston is offering and what Chicago is asking. As the deadline approaches, there are less buyers, not more. Everyone has the same record on opening day, by July 1st there are only 5-6 teams looking to acquire a SP. Pinning hopes on deadline buyers is a wager on desperation, not logic. Hell, if (God forbid) Altuve or Correa get hurt, no way Houston still tries to get Quintana this season. Quintana will be a distraction as long as he's still in Chicago. Everyone knows he will be traded, and having that in the clubhouse can't be a good thing. Chicago has 5-6 more players they need to deal as part of their rebuild (Abreu, Frazier, Cabrera, Shields, Robertson, maybe Jennings/Jones/Soto). They need get these things done to avoid dragging it out. The GM doesn't have the bandwidth to juggle 5-6 negotiations at a time. This Quintana trade is occupying a ton of his attention and he can't take the next step until it's done. Also, the sooner they get the prospects into their system, the sooner they can develop them their way. Finally, and this is way less of a factor than the other points, Chicago is better served by losing games this season due to draft order. So Quintana winning games for them over the next few months is a bad thing.
I will say the value of some players does get inflated at the deadline, but it is not a guarantee. The overpay for deadline deals is not what it was 15 years ago. CWS are willing to accept that risk as the Astros appear willing to accept risk that they are good enough as is or can improve later on.
Sox have no reason to rush trading Quintana. Sure, he could get hurt, as could any mlb player or prospect, but using him as a blue chip trade piece is too valuable to the White sox to screw up by accepting a lesser package for the sake of moving him If teams do not meet the Sox price, they always can keep him and ride out his cheap contract? If the Sox aren't getting the pieces they want, why would they settle for less and then cross their fingers hoping that lesser package pans out? Hahn has stated several times the Sox are closer to the beginning of the rebuild than to the end. Quintana clearly is not going anywhere for a lesser package. Sox waited for the right deal on Sale and finally got what they wanted, they will do the same for Quintana. Elite, controllable pitching will always have tons of trade value.
Then they can keep Quintana and get less later or just never trade him. The Sox didn't wait with Sale. They traded him pretty quickly.
If the 'Sros hold off making a trade, and it gets close to the trading deadline (or whenever) there's no guarantee that Quintana will be the target. If the Tigers are out of the race they may be willing to trade Verlander. Same goes with the DBacks and Greinke, or the Rays with Archer. I'm sure there will be others as well.
You are correct that the White Sox do not have to hurry and trade Quintana. The other side of that coin is that other teams do not have to meet their demands, which appears to be the case. They can wait to trade him later, but there is no guarantee that teams will be willing to meet the price then either. Especially considering that a majority of teams that will be competitive at the deadline do not have the kinds of prospects the White Sox are looking to receive. The White Sox are in a rebuild. Hanging on to Quintana only hampers that process, since it makes them a better team. I do not have a problem with Hahn's stance, but I also concur with Luhnow's decision. Contrary to what you seem to be saying, all the advantages do not reside with the White Sox. Looks to me like it is more of a stalemate.
Hahn has stated that while he is not going to accept any deal he doesn't feel is fair value, he would prefer to move quickly. In fact, he has stated that the goal was to have 4 deals complete this offseason (the assumption was that Quintana and Robertson were in line after Sale and Eaton).
Expecting to replenish the farm system with 2nd and 3rd round picks (4 of the 5 picks you mentioned), and international prospects would be considered extremely high risk in my opinion.
He did just fine with the Cardinals...they never really had high picks when he was the scouting director.
I think @Snake Diggit nailed the urgency: if the Sox are, as you claimed, at the beginning of this rebuild, then draft capital has tremendous value to them. The last thing the Sox can afford - beyond Quintana getting hurt - is to fool around and win 73, 76 or, as they did last year, 78 games. There can't be any middle ground in the rebuild - *trust* us.... we watched the Astros lose 400+ games in a four-year stretch. That's not to suggest the Sox would or should accept $.50 on the dollar; but I think it does underscore that they benefit tremendously by dealing him now.
Martes is certainly good enough to headline a trade for Quintana. Again, prospect lists are often outdated or behind the current curve. Martes was deemed very impressive the second half of last year and this spring. He has the upside of a #1 starter and is very close to being in the big leagues. Players like that are certainly good enough to headline a trade for someone like Quintana. Tucker isn't right now on the same level as Martes, largely because he is a couple levels below Martes and he hasn't had the type of success that Martes has. His skill set is very promising (although not on the level of Martes), and he is a #1-#2 prospect in most farm systems. I personally think he is probably third in the Astros system. The Astros clearly want Quintana, but offering Tucker AND Martes AND considerably more is foolish. Because the Astros have had a deep farm system the last 4-5 years, some fans are underestimating some of the players in the Astros system. The system can (and will) eventually slow down, but the Astros did very well in trades and in the international market a few years ago and you are on the cusp of seeing some of these kids emerge and likely contribute at the big league level.
Agreed, but it is a lot harder without top draft picks. Correa, Bregman and Tucker all wouldn't be on the team (or a top prospect) without top draft choices.
True... but it took sucking at a royally historical level to be in the position to acquire those types of guys.... and two of the guys they really wanted (Aiken, Appel) aren't figuring in their future plans any time soon (while Kris Bryant wins MVPs). In the end, whether you're picking first or last, the draft remains a crapshoot... which indicates you still can get talent no matter where you're picking (just maybe not once-in-a-generation talent... unless you're Mike Trout and somehow get drafted after Jio Mier. Farm systems can be re-stocked/re-loaded at a much easier rate with the new rules, than in previous days when money and big markets still influenced where guys went in the draft.
Waiting also has the possibility of creating the inherent conflict regarding where the team is at that point. Presuming they'll never be in a total win now mode... you could then go both ways at the deadline. If you're winning games, in first place, and not showing any signs of weakness.... why make a move? If you're struggling, and you don't feel Quintana makes the difference between winning/losing/making playoffs.... why make a move? I could easily see the risk averse side of the Astros front office weighing that internal dilemma. If recent trends are any indication... Luhnow has tended to make the minor for major-league player type moves in the off-season (Gattis trade, Giles trade). Also, the 2015 pre-trade deadline moves (Carlos Gomez and attempts for Hamels) indicates that if the Astros are winning, but not running away with anything, Luhnow may be more apt to make a move.
