Lowe Post podcast from Sloan: Daryl Morey on the Rockets, draft mistakes, bad nicknames, Broadway mu

Morey is great GM, don't get me wrong. He's one of the best. But these misses make me scratch my head.

1. This 2008 trade was really weak:

Our pick Batum (a 19-year old phenom) to the Trail Blazers, Darrell Arthur (our pick) to the Grizzlies and Greene and Dorsey to the Rockets, along with a second-round pick from the Grizzlies in 2009. Mercifully, we flipped Greene for Artest and got something out of this.

At the same time, we passed multiple times on DeAndre Jordan who went in the second round. At that time, he really wanted to be a Rocket, and he could have been the heir apparent to Mutumbo.​

2. Passing on Kawhi Leonard in 2011 was simply criminal. All the advanced stats pointed to him being a success.

3. Hanging on to 3 first round picks in 2012 (Lamb, White, and T. Jones). There were lots of obvious misses here with true winners from college like Jae Crowder, Draymond Green, and Khris Middleton available and later productive pros like Andrew Nicholson, Evan Fournier, and Jared Sullinger also on the board.

I sure hope we use our money wisely and don't miss the chance to add for the future. We've sometimes zeroed in on our rotation players and missed real opportunities.

 

You might be putting words in his mouth. They were first talking about 30 pt leads, mainly just to make a point about MDA's belief that habit-forming is a good thing, even in garbage-time situations. Morey only said last 2 minutes up by ten, maybe then change. He said specifically, "Maybe the quick, open 3 isn't the wisest in that situation," not really saying change style, rather just one aspect of it. That is probably statistically proven by the high variance he mentions earlier. His big point was coaches consider more than just stats, and using blowouts to continue playing the game plan has its own benefits. MDA would probably argue the garbage time players should get the chance to play the same way as the starters.

So glad Morey didn't mention the ATL game though, wisely choosing not to, because out-of-context tweets of a comment about that game would be horrible.

and fwiw: most 4th Q leads I recall blowing were earlier in the 4th when Harden was resting, especially early in the season. So, Morey could probably make a statistical case that MDA is correct to not change style early in the 4th. Harden rests for 4-6 minutes at beginning of the Q. Although, the ATL game comeback was with him in the game for most of that comeback.

 

minor comment that was interesting: Northwestern (Morey's alma mater) is the only NCAA team to never get a tournament bid. So sad. Suppose because they are in a much tougher basketball conference than schools like Rice (who have gone 4 times, but not since 1970).

 

Morey worshippers believe in numbers, analytics, facts and evidence. It is statistically impossible to be perfect, so Morey has never claimed he doesn't make mistakes. He makes more hits than misses though, and by increasing the volume of his transactions you will eventually compile enough net hits for something great to happen.

Not that I expect the "Maury" crowd to get that. How about them mid range Js?

 

There is nothing over critical or petty about noting he passed on one of the games best players. There surely is nothing wrong with asking if that was his response when he was questioned about his biggest draft mistake. Someone has a "da worst" type of response alright, but not me.

When he makes good moves, offer props. When he makes mistakes, he can be criticized for those mistakes.

 

1. Its just bad scouting on Rox part, they thought Greene was the best of the prospects and I guess they thought Dorsey was gonna be the new age center. IIRC after that Morey realized there were issues with his models.

2. Baby Melo 2.0 had projected to have bigger star power than Kawhi, Kawhi's nos of 15 pts while decent in college actually projects poorly in the NBA where 20+ pt college scorers become mediocre NBA scorers. We were desperate for a star at the time and Morey was on record he'd rather take someone with 90% bust rate and 10% star potential over someone who doesn't have any star potential.

3. Same as 2, Lamb and White were a lot more highly rated than Draymond Green and Jae Crowder. Of course it looks dumb now with hindsight but look at where Green and Crowder were projected to be in comparison to Lamb and White.

As for DJ, he's kinda an anomaly with big men its hard to know how they will project. When Thomas Robinson got drafted people were saying Sacramento got a can't miss superstar lol we all know what happened. On the flip side nobody knew Capela would be this good when he got drafted, Morey said they thought it would take him 2 more years before he was good enough to play in NBDL lol.

 

You probably should have worded your first post better then, but I take blame in me not realizing you meant biggest draft mistake and not mistake in general like you made it seem. I personally don't think taking Morris over Kawhi is his biggest mistake. I do think it's a blunder, but no one expected Kawhi to be as good as he was in 2014 let alone how good he is now in 2017.

I haven't listened to the podcast yet, but from what I got out of it based on this thread is that he regretted not taking DJ when he had the chance, genuinely believed Morris had star potential, and believed his worst move was trading a 1st for squid.

edit: either way folks like you are still da worst.

 

Why are you so mad? The post asked a legit question. Almost everybody thinks that was Morey's biggest mistake. Don't you want to hear what Morey himself would say about that?

 

Morey never has. But his worshipers act like he never makes mistakes. Every time someone brings up Morey's mistake, they just rush in to defend him and make excuses for him.

Actually, IMO, missing DeAndre Jordan and Draymond Green were worse draft mistakes than missing Leonard. Those were supposed to be Morey's gems.

 

LOL for me Kawhi was the worst one though, I mean dude was right there it was like a Kahn moment where everybody else in that position wouldn't make that mistake but somehow Morey outsmarted himself.

Lots of teams passed on Jordan and Green so considering the bust rate of bigs it's not really something you can fault Morey for. Every other team would have picked Kawhi over whathisname though, so to me if you make a mistake that majority if not all other team wouldn't make then that's just horrible.

 

To be honest I don't like the whole 'missed draft' argument. Do you think that Leonard would've evolved to the player he is now in a system other than the Spurs? I doubt it.
He probably would have become more of a Shane Battier top role player in any other situation.
So does Green, can't see him becoming anything more than Tristan Thompson in any other team except GS. And TT would barely crack the rotation in other teams and situations.
How players evolve depends on situation, system and dumb luck.
I think actually the idea of picking a player purely by his talent is overused in the drafts, and compatibility to the system and current needs should be the main concept when picking after the lottery.

 

The MOF's vs the MOH's!

 

Not drafting Kawhi Leonard was not a Morey mistake, Indiana made that mistake. What about Jimmy Butler, Isaiah Thomas? At the time, Leonard was a baller, but no team would expect him to be NBA MVP type player. Spurs loved him because he is a great defender in college which fits Pop's philosophy. I believe if the Rockets picked Leonard, he would not be the same player he is now. Pop knows how to groom and mesh players, McHale does not know how to mesh players (Hi Dwight). If there was a big mistake of Morey, it was drafting Royce White. He had panic attack and fear of flying which is a big red flag for NBA games on back-to back. Basically, you would have to spend more money to spend on this one player for travel accommodations. Morey did try to help him which I commend, but White is just a neurotic trash.

 

I agree up to the 'dumb luck'. Crowder, for example. Missed? Cubes and the brilliant conceptualizers and developers dumped him (in a lose big trade BTW). It's still extremely difficult to measure 'heart'; or how a player will connect with Pop? With MDA? Opportunity is often the ultimate measuring stick. 14 teams passed on can't miss Kahli. 15, actually, since Indy swapped him right away. Butler was...#30?

Heck, wouldn't the rest of the league be happy if The Logo hadn't finally been able to put the kibosh on the Klay-Love deal? Sheesh, scores of mistakes in every draft, with almost every trade. Wanna make a good trade? Start by calling Jr Colangelo and Vlade.

 

I'm not the biggest fan of reviewing who we passed up in a draft 10+ slots after our selection - hindsight is 20/20, and the same critique could be made for essentially every team when discussing a DJ or Draymond.

However, misses like Morris/Kawhi hurt, and I wonder how different our selections would have looked had we not been targeting the "superstar" or flashy pick. In general, Morey seems (or seemed, pre-Harden) to target "superstar" players in RD1 and simply solid backups in RD2, which likely explains why he's been much more successful in RD2.

 

Yea hindsight is 20/20. It's easy to comb through the Rockets draft and pick out missed picks but when you pick through the rest of the league it's real easy to point out "egregious" misses.

We have Dekker, Capela, and Harrell (to a lesser degree) all contributing, all on rookie contracts.

 

No, I shouldn't have. My first post, in a thread titled "Daryl Morey on the Rockets, draft mistakes", reads as follows:

"Did he say passing on Leonard was his biggest mistake?"

That's a question. In a thread about a GM commenting on things, like his draft mistakes. Sorry (not sorry), but miss me on that BS.

 

Yes, because apparently he has no life outside of basketball. When you combine an elite athlete with that type of work ethic, greatness is what you get. The Spurs didn't give him that work ethic. Now they do have that assistant that helped fix his jumper, but he's not the only guy in the world that can help a player shoot better. It appears that Leonard eats, sleeps and ***** basketball.

 

yeah but if sacramento drafted him wouldnt his ethic been tested and perhaps gave away at some point?

 

I think much of it is about the system you grow into as a player.
Obviously it's impossible to know, but to me he looked unconfident when he started in the leauge. It could have been easeliy that he would disappear into himself without the comfort and family like attitude in San Antonio.
Should I remind you what happened with Indiana and Hibert? After the rif with George he crumbled completely and pretty much destroyed his career.
There is so much luck involved in becoming one of the top tier players that it's frightening.
Pretty much every player that manage to get to the NBA have the talent to be one of the top players. The variables that decide if it's actually going to happen are enormous.
Off course its about work ethic and mentality but being in the right situation in the right time is the deciding factor in my view of how a player will develop.
Jordan wouldn't become Jordan if Portland would pick him and put him behind or next to Drexler, Harden wouldn't become Harden if he would stay in OKC and Kawii wouldn't be who he is on a different system or even a different time in the same system.