1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

How the Rockets have looked these past 9 games statistically

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by oogie boogie, Jan 26, 2017.

  1. oogie boogie

    oogie boogie Member

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2010
    Messages:
    2,750
    Likes Received:
    1,478
    First, I’d like to say that this isn’t drawing out any conclusions. I’m just stating stats. Nothing else. Take them as you want. I’m not trying to draw a narrative or say “this is why we’re losing.” I just feel like it would be better for all of ClutchFans if we all saw things from a numbers standpoint instead of an eye test (which is also very important, but some people are better at breaking down offensive and defensive schemes than others.)

    So we all know that Houston went on a 9 game winning streak that was snapped January 11th against the Timberwolves. Since then Houston has gone 3-6 and have dropped to a 34-15 record and the Spurs and Warriors have been running away in the standings while other teams are catching up.

    In these 9 games the Rockets have had a 108.1 ORTG which is good for 11th in the league which is down from their usual top 3. On the other side of the ball Houston has a 108.1 DRTG which is 20th in the league which is still around their average this season. Do the math and Houston has a net rating of zero.

    If you want to compare these 9 games to our most recent 9-game winning streak then Houston would have a league high 117.3 ORTG and 14th best 107.3 DRTG. That gave Houston a 2nd best net rating of 10.0. The pace for both 9-game stretches have been the almost the same as well. The Rockets in the 9-game winning streak had a TS% of 61% meanwhile the Bad Rockets have a TS% of 57%. The Good Rockets attempted 41.6 threes a game and made 36.6% of them which would have ranked them 19th in the league at the time. The Bad Rockets have attempted 39.2 threes a game and made 32.9% percent of them which would have them ranked 25th in the league currently during this stretch.

    I’d like to talk about the Good Rockets first. In those 9 games (Dec. 15th to Jan. 10th) Houston played a total of 432 minutes which was tied for 3rd (sharing it with 9 other teams.) There were 3 away games and 6 home games. The teams the Rockets played in that stretch had a shared 30-46 record. This means those teams averaged about 8.4 games played during our stretch. Those 9 teams we played had an average ORTG of 106 (which would be in between 16th and 17th if it belonged to a single team) and had an average DRTG of 108.9 (which would be in between 18th and 19th if it belonged to a single team.) In this time span Patrick Beverley missed 3 games, Eric Gordon missed 1 game, and Clint Capela missed 9 games. Defensive stuff: OPP pts off tov: 18.8 – OPP pts 2nd chance: 14.7 – OPP pts fb: 12.6 – OPP pts paint: 49.1 (worst in the league)

    Now let’s speak about the Bad Rockets. In these 9 games (Jan. 11th to Jan. 24th) Houston has played again a total of 432 minutes which is tied for first (sharing it with 2 other teams.) There were 6 away games and 3 home games. The teams the Rockets played in this stretch have a shared 26-24 record. This means those teams averaged 7.1 games played during our stretch. Those 7 teams we played had an average ORTG of 108.3 (which would be in between 8th and 9th if it belonged to a single team) and had an average DRTG of 107.8 (which would in between 18th and 19th if it belonged to a single team.) In this time span Eric Gordon missed 2 games, Ryan Anderson missed 3 games, Clint Capela missed 3 games, and Nene missed 2 games. Defensive stuff: OPP pts off tov: 18.2 – OPP pts 2nd chance: 12.0 – OPP pts fb: 16.0 – OPP pts paint: 53.1 (worst in the league)


    (Some) player stats during Dec. 25th to Jan. 10th:
    Harden: 36.2mpg | 32.4 ppg | 11.4 apg | 9.8 rpg | 6.7 topg | 37.2 3p% | 64.2 ts% | 37 usg | Net rating of +7.2 |
    Gordon: 30.2 mpg | 18.9 ppg | 36.3 3p% | 10 attempts
    Anderson: 30.8 mpg | 14.3 ppg | 41 3p% | 6.8 attempts
    Ariza: 35.7 mpg | 12.8 ppg | 37.7 3p% | 7.7 attempts
    Beverley: 31.0 mpg | 11.3 ppg | 48.1 3p% | 4.5 attempts


    (Some) player stats during recent 9-game stretch (Jan. 11th to Jan. 24th)
    Harden: 36.5 mpg | 29.1 ppg | 10.6 apg | 7.4 rpg | 6.6 topg | 30.4 3p% | 64.4 ts% | 33.2 usg | Net rating of +1.1 |
    EJ: 30.3 mpg | 15 ppg | 30 3p% | 10 attempts
    Ryan: 26.8 mpg | 12.5 pgg | 37.8 3p% | 6.2 attempts
    Trev: 37.1 mpg | 11.3 ppg | 33.9 3p% | 6.9 attempts
    Pat: 31.2 mpg | 9.7 ppg | 37.8 3p% | 4.1 attempts


    Let us compare Good Rockets James versus Bad Rockets James. Honestly, the thing that jumps out you is the drastic change in 3FG%, yet somehow Harden has kept his elite efficiency above 64 ts%. The reason for this is because he is currently attempted less FG attempts per game, but is still getting to the line frequently and finishing at the rim well. His numbers across the board have dropped. Less points, rebounds, and assists while essentially the same amount of turnovers. One thing to note is that his usage rate has dropped as well.

    Now to the other three guys. Ryan and EJ have missed their fair share of games which would be 3 and 2 respectively which hurts Houston a lot since their offense relies heavily on 3 point shooting. Still, in the 7 games EJ has played he is shooting 30 percent from 3 which is significantly down from his season average 39%. [Note: EJ is shooting 35% from 3 in past 20 games which is down from his 43.5% in first 26 games.] Ryan Anderson hasn’t regressed much in the 3 point shooting department but it is still noticeable. [My opinion: Perhaps he’s still hitting well from 3 in this stretch because he’s played more away games than home games lol.] Trevor went from 38% percent to 34%. Pat dropped from an unsustainable 48% to 38%.

    Few things to note: Trez has dropped from 28mpg to 21mpg now that Clint is back in rotation. Corey’s minutes have roughly remained the same in both 9-game stretches. Sam Dekker jumped from 18.5 minutes per game to 23.5 minutes per game. He has increased his 3 point attempts from 2.4 (on 27.3%) to 4.6 (on 31.7%.) [My personal opinion, Dekker is a very active body but he if wants to contribute as a very serviceable back up forward then he must improve his shooting.]
     
    sammy, Deuce, seeingred and 4 others like this.
  2. OTMax

    OTMax Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2013
    Messages:
    8,352
    Likes Received:
    3,670
    Thanks for this! I think the schedule, the injuries since some players are still not a 100%, the almost immediate reinstating Capela as starting center, the minutes and rotation changes due to injuries, little time to practice and maybe a lack of working on defense before games to fix mistakes, very little adjustments and frustrations due to the losses. We don't need a players only meeting necessarily, but we do need changes. Right now!

    I feel the team is just doing what they've been doing and while it has worked for a while, our shooting was just not sustainable and teams have partly figured us out - for the lack of a better term. The main problem to me is the obvious lack of defense, which yes starts with our alpha dog and the coaches as well. The finger pointing, not running back in transition, mouthing off at each other, standing around after a TO or arguing for a call has been happening a lot more recently. Those are bad habits that we need to get rid of, also right now!

    The second thing in my eyes is the lack of adjustments by our coaching staff. On offense, you just cannot keep preaching threes and lay-ups if opponents keep taking it away and or our players are slumping. It's just stubborn and frankly quite stupid. Get that midrange game going, mix it up, do something else besides pick-and-roll with Harden and Gordon. Get some shots for Harrell, Nene, Gordon, Ryno, Harden closer to the basket. Beverley has been making that floater / teardrop a lot more, so start telling him to use it instead of the usual going inside to draw defenders only to kick it out for a 3. Wide open or not, a shot closer to the basket is a higher % if you account our drop in 3p% due to tired legs etc.

    If anybody has seen any adjustments, please point them out because I haven't seen any new sets they've used on a regular nor the use of mid-range or some mixing it up with who sets up the offense. If we continue like this, we will stumble into the ASB as the 4-5 seed and I don't think Morey can work his magic this time around. The rotation is another big problem, but as a coach you don't have much choice when you have Brewer, Ennis, Brown, Kyle and Onuaku on your bench. I do want them to use Harrell more, but there's a lot more to it than just playing a certain guy more minutes.
     
  3. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2008
    Messages:
    21,131
    Likes Received:
    22,611
    Great work OP. This slump is predictable and logical, I'm not worried about it. Fatigue coinciding with rough schedule coinciding with injuries. Classic signs of fatigue showing up: transition defense is bad, rotations are slow, shooters slumping. There are also some growing pains from Trez and Dekker and Capela, but we are good enough to absorb their mistakes.

    There must be some mental explanation to the stats too. I feel like the guys won good games with seemingly easy comebacks. Maybe they started feeling like deficits are easy to overcome, which is just as bad as thinking deficits are impossible to overcome, and that's what has made them take their foot off the pedal defensively. I haven't watched the Celtics game yet but in general I have noticed a drop in urgency to protect the basket. This particular group of guys haven't lost tough games together before, so there is also an element of learning how to respond as a team.

    Offensively, more rest days and law of averages will push us back to a top offensive team. We were not so good defensively to begin with, I hope we bring ourselves to a respectable top 10 calibre defense for the remaining games. We will be fine, we're still going to win 20+ games the rest of the way. I also hope we can get a defensively competent big guard and C to give us options.

    This next stretch of games is going to tell me whether we have a team that will turn it up or stay flat come playoffs. We have a single day off between each game for the next 2 weeks (IIRC) after going through a tired stretch, followed by a long rest. The conditions are perfect imo to make an assessment of how this team is likely to play in the playoffs, and also who might help us as an acquisition.
     
    #3 Mathloom, Jan 26, 2017
    Last edited: Jan 26, 2017
    Patience and BigMaloe like this.
  4. BigMaloe

    BigMaloe Member

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2012
    Messages:
    15,241
    Likes Received:
    18,328
    The bench without Gordon is not that good.

    But in regards to adjustments and "midrange". Harden operated inside the arc and put up about 4-5 mid range jumpers over a certain sequence of plays.
     
  5. Air Langhi

    Air Langhi Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2000
    Messages:
    21,950
    Likes Received:
    6,708
    Based on the stats it looks like we are shooting 3s worse. We are a team that lives and dies by the 3. Gordon is also probably hurt which has been his MO over this career.
     
  6. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    May 2, 2014
    Messages:
    81,838
    Likes Received:
    122,263
    honestly Gordon's looking like da real MVP right about now . . .
     
  7. Texanasiafan

    Texanasiafan Member

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2013
    Messages:
    7,003
    Likes Received:
    2,812
    I had mentioned this several times.

    Capela is not a good finisher around the rim, and his overall defense efficiency is overrated. He is a good shot blocker but his position and rotation on defense is no where close to elite level. This team will always suck on defense and rebounding.

    With Harrell and Nene rotation, this team actually was playing better on the offensive side.

    If your defense is going to suck anyway, you may as well max your offense to outscore people.
     
  8. FTW Rockets FTW

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2011
    Messages:
    27,724
    Likes Received:
    21,397
    Didn't read everything but thanks.

    To summarize:

    Players stats/numbers and team stats are better during Rockets Wins than Rockets losses.
     
  9. Mr Chuck Norris

    Joined:
    Nov 1, 2008
    Messages:
    4,526
    Likes Received:
    1,745
    Sa basically after losing 1 game all December....they're tired.....who woulda thought.....Well good hing we have an all star break.
     
  10. seeingred

    seeingred Member

    Joined:
    Dec 13, 2009
    Messages:
    1,123
    Likes Received:
    591
    Solid analysis. It looks to me like during this slump we're playing better teams, on their court, while they're more rested. We have injuries, guys coming back from injuries, and various shooting slumps to contend with. i agree with what a lot of people are saying - if the 3 isn't falling we need to run plays that get us closer to the basket. Back door cuts, Harden post ups, hand offs - etc. Pretty sure D'Antoni has seen this kind of slump before and has something in his tool box for it.

    The OPP FG% in the paint, however... yikes. Hopefully a completely healthy Clint cuts back on some of that.
     
  11. Rocket River

    Rocket River Member

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 1999
    Messages:
    65,480
    Likes Received:
    33,174
    Rockets need to finish better in the lane - missing too many bunnies
    Rockets need to defend the lane better - too many layups / offensive rebounds given up/ etc
    Rockets need to hit their threes - stop all this fricking hesitating
    Rockets Needs to play harder *clap*clap*clap*

    Rocket River
     

Share This Page