Harden fixed his turnovers issue by getting more assists but the TO's are still a problem

Increasing expectations to unrealistic levels is pointless. If you expect a championship from this team, you'll be disappointed. That much I can guarantee you.

The Rockets have 1 star. You need multiple to win a ring in today's NBA, and really this has been the case for many years sans for a few outliers.

 

"Oh, fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuudge...."

Only, I didn't say "Fudge." I said THE word, the big one, the queen-mother of dirty words, the "F-dash-dash-dash" word!

 

Only one player has averaged a triple double for an entire season, and we will have another do it this year (Westbrook) and another come close than anyone in decades (Harden). No team had ever won 73 games in a season and the Warriors did it 7 months ago. No team had ever attempted over thirty three point shots a game for a season until two years ago, now a handful of teams will likely do so this year and the Rockets are on pace to average forty this year!

The league is in a period of extreme change. What held true even a few years ago, no longer applies. Post scoring has gone from the preferred shot of choice to one of last resort.

You can post arbitrary cut off limits for turnovers or any other statistic you want, and it needs to be taken with a huge grain a salt. Until two years no team attempting volume threes had won a title.... yet the Warriors still won, and this year; three of the four best teams this season are at the top of the league in three point attempts.

As far as turnovers are concerned, the Rockets are in the middle of the pack in net differential. Know who turns the ball over more than the Rockets? The Golden State Warriors.

 

It's a relative thing, though. My point was that since the Rockets rely so much on the 3 ball, it only makes sense that is the biggest determining factor for success. Sure, interior defense needs to improve, sure it would be nice if we could get our turnover numbers down. But, at the end of the day if those 3's aren't falling then I don't see the Rockets making it very far in the playoffs anyway.

Just as an example, Golden State is another team that shoots a lot of threes and averages close to the same number of turnovers per game that the Rockets do. It's not a glaring issue for them though because overall they're a very good passing team which allows them to score enough points to out weigh the negative effects of those turnovers.

Just looking at the numbers that @heypartner posted, you will see that when those 3's are going in the wins are nearly automatic.

 

Three point percentages decrease in the playoffs? Someone should quickly tell. GS and CLV because they both attempt well over 30 three pointer a game!

 

its only an eye test but lebron would have won zero rings were it not for the 3s falling for his team at a good rate ..shane battier's and mario chalmers' crazy shooting nights saved his ass while he was in miami...

 

I was responding to a poster who proposed trading Harden away. The only fudge here are the streaks on your underpants.

 

This is a good rule, but in the case of turnovers I'd argue that we at least have a hypothesis based on demonstrable evidence, therefore it isn't arbitrary.

The 'grain of salt' you're referring to is empirical evidence.

Of course statistics are not always accurate, and they're conflating tons of factors, but they're directional enough for an interesting conversation.

 

Right, this is the whole issue: expectations have completely shifted since just a few months ago.

Before the season I said I would be thrilled about 50 wins. The absolute tear we went on in December has skewed everyone's expectations now.

It's unfair for me to sit here and say "we can do better", but it still feels fulfilling. I don't think we win a championship under any circumstance this season, but what I'm really looking for is a fighting chance against the Spurs / Warriors.

 

If any superstar can win without another superstar, it's James Harden. With MDA, surrounded by complementary role players and a good bench, it can be done IMO. If Dirk can do it, Beard certainly can too.

Unlike Lebron or Curry who both required multiple superstars around them.

 

Expectations do not remain constant, your expectations go up as your success rises. At least I hope yours do. I do not expect anything, I do root for a championship. But this season has proven that this is not an unrealistic goal. I would love to improve the roster of course, but I do not believe another star is necessary to win it all. Better role players perhaps may be all we need.

I believe. Whether you think that's unrealistic or not, whether you think I will be disappointed or not. Shoot for the moon, at least you'll hit a star.

 

Yes, expectations have definitely shifted. We went from "45 wins. Hope to make playoffs", to "55-60 wins, must get Top 3 seed, make the WCF", which is a resounding success for the team in Year 1 of the retooling. It's just also not realistic to expect us to beat the Warriors in a 7 game series. We're still missing a piece or two to get to that level, which is fine for now.

I do not disparage this line of thinking at all. I hope you're right.

 

Not sure if this is what you are asking.

Last season 3pt%

Golden State: regular season .416; playoffs .393
Cleveland: regular season . 362; playoffs .406

GS's 3pt% did decrease in the playoffs, but not by much.
Cavs's 3pt% actually increased in the playoffs by a large margin.

Maybe that's why Cleveland won the chip, and GS didn't.

Anyway, if we just look at these two teams, it doesn't look like 3pt averages decreases in the playoffs.

 

This post is clueless.

 

Regular season and playoffs are two different animals bro. You know dat. The playoffs are where your weaknesses are exploited. That leads to failure of your strength as players are forced to play out of character.

There's no question that at some point in the playoffs our 3 ball percentage is going to fall. Because our guys are catch and shoot only and they're gonna get closed out by longer, quicker, faster defenders. They're gonna chuck it back to Harden, he's gonna throw it away our get it to a shooter who is forced to throw up a defended shot. It is already happening in small spurts. It'll happen more in the playoffs.

But the source of it all us Harden at the point and his unwillingness to accept a distributor/passer alongside him that can get him the ball to score with in those situations instead of him attempting to do everything himself.

You act like we just make or miss shots. Like we're either on or off. That theory might pass muster in the regular season where you're playing a different opponent every game but in a 7-game grind everything is exposed. Our one-dimensional Harden-centric offense is going to be exposed and is going to disappoint many posters here who think James can take us all the way playing like this.

Playoffs are a different animal. He'll turn it over and we'll be stuck because our next best playmaker (Gordon) is even more turnover prone than James is.

 

Here's your cheesy response. I wasn't talking about trading Harden away.

We're a GREAT regular season team, but are already seeing the signs....

 

You were not talking about trading Harden away, at least not directly. But nothing I said in your quote is untrue. The only thing cheesy is that mousetrap between your legs.

 

About what I expected. Your whole theory exposed... so nothing else to say.

 

How much fail can you have in one post?

First of all, the NBA playoffs are different than the regular season but not nearly as different as you seem to think it is. Furthermore the Rockets are not alone in facing changes come playoff time, every single team involved faces increased pressure and effort from their opponents. The idea that magically long defenders will harm the Rockets is comical. Using your logic, these defenders are taking the regular season off.

Concerning the Rockets shooters getting magically closed out , again flawed logic. The Rockets already face that. The fact that you believe that the Rockets will get closed out and immediately pass it to Harden for a turnover is perplexing. The Rockets are successful because they have multiple shooters on the floor, the passout isn't always to Harden AND teams are not going to be able to close out Anderson, Beverly and Ariza AND adequately cover Harden AND cut off Capela from rolling to the basket. It doesn't work that way, and it is the reason the Rockets are not routinely shut down offensively.

The Rockets three point percentage will fall? Likely, good thing it will for whomever they are facing as well. This doesn't all happen in a vacuum and it isn't static. The two best teams in the NBA rely on the 3 ball a great deal and will in the playoffs as well.

The Rockets are not likely to win the championship. However it isn't because Harden is handling the ball and it won't be because James Harden isn't good enough. It will be because teams like Golden State and Cleveland have more talent. The Rockets are currently a top 5 team in the NBA. Losing in the playoffs, when you are the 3rd seed is likely, you aren't supposed to come out of the west or even necessarily make the WCF.

The fact that you foist all of this on your dated belief that the Rockets failure will be because Ricky Rubio taking the ball out of Harden's hands is pathetic.

The Rockets shortcomings have nothing to do with the Rockets not having a stiff taking the ball out of Harden's hands.

 

Nook'll C?