I cannot put my finger on why I feel this way, but I expect to have a recession this year similar to the Early 2000s recession after the dot com bust. I begun to feel this way earlier last year, and I thought it would make Clinton a one term president (wrong on that one). But I still feel like a recession is coming, and it's going to be painful for the middle class because rates are already less than 1% and inflation is going to start to pick up now that incomes are slightly up. Have you noticed retailers going out of business? It seems Brick and Mortar stores are no longer viable, and this may be the year many long running stores like Sears actually close for good. Shopping malls across the country are looking more and more empty as the stores within go out of business. People are driving cars they cannot afford from loans that should not have been issued in the first place (sounds familiar to 2000s). These last 8 years have been good, but eventually the music stops and there is never enough chairs for everyone. http://www.pbs.org/newshour/making-sense/get-ready-economic-recession-coming-2017/ I am putting my money where my mouth is, and I am holding cash for 2017 instead of buying in the market right now. Do you think we have a recession this year? Do you think the Fed/Congress/TrumpWH will be able to avert it? Do you think they will even acknowledge anything is wrong if it does happen?
I'll say close to 0% chance of a recession. Obviously there could be some random crazy event but recessions don't really happen at the beginning of Fed rate tightening cycles.
Could a recession happen this year? Absolutely. ISIS could run a plane into the whitehouse or Trump just might get bored and nuke ... someone. Anything can happen. There is absolutely no indicator of a bear market. Its quite the opposite. Recessions are usually predicted well in advance. For a recession to happen in 2017, something very very major has to happen. Whether you believe in Trumps policies or not, he is very focused on the economy. We can argue that his polices may hurt us in the long run, but in the short run, he will give the economy a hopeful boost (hope and change anyone?). Consumer Confidence is going up sharply, up to 2001 levels. Businesses are much more hopeful. While the last 8 years haven't been bad, they havent been great either. Using brick and mortar as a barometer is a very poor metric. We know Amazon is killing brick and mortar stores. Nobody wants to walk around mindlessly in a giant store just to look at ends rows of shelves of product and have no idea if its a quality product or a crap product when they can shop from the computer and sort by reviews and price. Brick and mortar are done. They are a relic in which few will survive. Walmart will your barometer for brick and mortar. I dont think we will see bearish markets until 2019 as long as we continue to maintain stability in most of the countries.
Something would have to happen to cause a recession. Some sort of shock or change that puts a significant damper on business. This could a financial crisis in another country, a war, or the collapse of a market that affects consumer spending. Mismanagement of the country which seems likely to happen will ultimately lead to a recession, but it usually takes a few years for that to occur.
~2000s >>2016 showed a completed Elliot-waves IMHO Based on volume alone sell off might comes from Strategic investors like hedge funds etc ,
I think there will be a bubble economy in equities for the next two years if trump has his cake by reshaping the Fed.
This is a very real concern and a very relevant idea for a thread topic. The Fed has spent most of the last eight years re-inflating the the stock and real estate market bubbles that burst during the 2008 financial crisis with their money printing operations. This has been assisted by money fleeing here from all over the globe in the face of financial softness in economies around the world and a level of mistrust in their governing regimes that is palpable, which has also helped to jack up our stock and real estate markets. The economic performance of our country over the last eight years has been substantially exaggerated and misrepresented by the Obama regime and the media, for obvious reasons. The voters called bullshit on all this in a particularly clear manner on November the 8th when they elected Donald Trump to be the next president of the United States. Also, Donald Trump has lots of enemies who want to see him fail and will likely do what they can to cause that to happen. Of course we have seen example after example of this through the election season and to this current day. This was most recently demonstrated by the Golden Showers "Fake News" scandal which hit the news last week and which was apparently assisted by our government intelligence community. Janet Yellen has of course all of the sudden now become serious about the need to raise interest rates, after she and her predecessor came up with reason after reason not to instigate this difficult weaning process during Obama's time in office, even though according to the media and the Fed, our economy is supposedly strong and has been for some time now. So which is it? If our economy is so strong, then why have we been sustaining what is effectively a zero interest rate policy for EIGHT YEARS now? Anyway, this weaning process does need to commence, it just should have started a long time ago. Combine all of that with the geopolitical tension that permeates many parts of the world and the economic difficulties that places like Europe and China are facing, and also that the countries of OPEC are struggling with as a result of relatively low oil prices, and all of the components are in place for a real nose dive. It probably needs to happen. Statistically - if you believe the statistics produced by our government (I don't) - we are well overdue for a downturn. If it doesn't happen, that will be the real surprise.
Not surprising. Usually economic boom during democrats in office and bust and war during republicans in office
True but it's not completely easy for him to act unilaterally with creating a trade war. I believe we have to be in a state of national emergency or actually at war for him to be able to act unilaterally. I don't think most republicans want to stick their necks out and get into too many trade fights either, but maybe I'm wrong. Also, I tend to believe he is using his usual tactics of talking a big game and then coming back to a more moderate position. He doesn't in any way seem to be anti trade or anti global. Either way it's doubtful he will be able to dramatically impact the flow of trade between China and America. Also if you are trying to figure out the Trump factor into the economy then you also have to add in the fact that he will likely get very large tax cuts passed. These should be a short term boost to the economy no matter how you feel about them. You also have to figure in possible spending cuts but I see that as highly unlikely even with Republicans in control. Any potential cuts wouldn't change anything for 2017 either. Longer term the impact of his potential tax and spending cuts on the deficit and debt will remain to be seen. He talked big about reducing the national debt, but it doesn't seem he has a comprehensive plan to do so. Trump really is a strange guy economically. He does have a laissez faire type attitude with some things but he also seems to want to use the bully pulpit to manipulate business. I don't think any of his policies will impact 2017 but later into his presidency we should start to see the impact of whatever road he takes. The bottom line is the Fed is slowly tightening and we are starting to see a little inflation both of which indicate growth will continue in 2017. The populist/protectionist trends rising should be noted and watched but I don't see things impacting the global economy in 2017.
Well said. The average American misses this point all together, because they don't dive into the detail, but rather preferring the quick sound bytes or headlines read on the internet. We've had a massive economic tailwind at our backs for many years, courtesy of the Fed. Obama of course tried to take credit, which fortunately voters saw through in November as Hillary ran on the back of Obama's "business as usual" train.
I've been seeing Zero Hedge headlines. There is no reason to believe we are heading into a recession. But we are heading to a deep deep depression and are on the brink of economic catastrophe.
Because there was substantial slack in the labor force, both in wages and underemployment. Only this past year has the job market really tightened a bit and have wages shown any sign of rising. There is still virtually no sign of inflation and thus there was little reason to raise interest rates. People keep complaining about the Fed moving too slowly while ignoring that all things they predicted would happen if the Fed move slowly haven't happened. Same as all the ranting about QE. So far, over the last 8 years, at every turn, the Fed has been 100% right and the critics have been 100% wrong.
The stock market will go down a bit whenever the Fed raises rates. Out of fear of that happening, the Fed refrained from raising rates. Since when before Obama was threat of a brief decline in the stock market a reason for the Fed to not raise rates? In fact, the market is at its currently high lev because of easy money by the Fed and its unwillingness to raise rates. At the same time, the economy has not been very strong for over eight years now, so even with a less accomodative Fed policy, they are not going to be all that high. But part of the reason they are so low is because of the huge amounts of cash the Fed has flooded the market with at virtually no cost. The stock market should not be driving Fed decision making. Unfortunately for Donald Trump, the Fed appears to have come back around to that way of thinking just precisely as he is transitioning into office. What an amazing coincidence.
have you noticed online retailers such as Amazon are thriving and, in the process, killing the mall retailers. it is expanding and planning massive hirings. ur being sarcastic, no ? during O's term, the DJIA had risen from ~8,000 to`~20,000; among all POTUS who had served 2 terms, that's second best ever, behind Clinton's (~4000 to >10,000) while i am not a fan of the Elliot Wave theory, if i were to apply that theory, i can see a new wave beginning translation O fixed many of the mess left behind by GWB's incompetence, which had severely damaged the US economy actually, since Janet Yellen raised the interest last month, the DOW has risen more than 10%, w banks leading the way, including the disgraced Wellls Fargo
Yes, a lot of the upheaval of the economy is from the transition to an online only marketplace completely driven by consumer preference. However,these people who are working these low skill/low wage jobs that are being eliminated are still important to the economic growth of the country. They are the ones buying new cars, houses, and appliances because credit is cheap. But who cares if the interest is non existent on these big purchases if they cannot even pay their principle the moment they are unemployed. Obviously the economy is much healthier than it was 8 years ago, but recessions happen and they usually occur once a decade. This is not a Democrat or Republican winning the election issue, and I will not blame Trump just as I wouldn't have blamed Hillary for the recession. But the Trump administration will be judged on its actions to stem the recession. Then again, maybe Trump should hold off the massive construction projects he proposed until it is actually needed. I cannot see the GOP in Congress passing it today since they did not let Obama have a Jobs deal back when the economy was much worse off.
For most Trump supporters, they have already been in an ongoing trade war. They've been in a trade war with Japan, Mexico, China, and illegal immigrants. One more trade war won't hurt anything.
But those Trump supporters are uneducated and have zero clue what a real, full-on trade war looks like.
Trump is a wild card. I just do not trust his judgment and his over confidence. Trump could start a trade war with his tweets. I'll admit that a trade war is not probable but it is certainly possible. For those keeping score at home, I am actively rooting for Trump to not start a trade war.
