Once on rockets Rubio's 3pt % will automatically raise to 35% having Harden to provide him with wide open looks.
The truth lies somewhere between Holic's (and Dwert) posting and the outright defense of Harden's turnover issue. An assist is a good thing, but it's not a perfect stat. On any given possession, a team will either score, miss a shot, get a foul or turn the ball over. This means obviously that scoring is only 1 out of 4 possibilities on any given possessions and an assist only comes on a certain number of those. However, there is a hidden rate in there that we can't see which would be a value that indicates the frequency at which the team is scoring because of an assist above what they otherwise would score. We don't really know Harden's value there because we don't have the numbers to see it, but I bet Morey has some statistic that created an assumed value there. On the flip side, a turnover is also 1 out of the 4 possibilities. I would LOVE to see a statistic that tracked an efficiency relative to the league that evaluated whether a player was a net positive when it came to a combination of the increase in turnovers vs the increase in points scored that are truly created above the norm by an assist. A simple assist isn't a good enough measure. With all that said, Harden's turnovers are an issue. Anyone who says they aren't has their head in the sand. Yet I do believe that Morey is metric driven and he is in love with Harden and thinks he can build a title team around him. I don't believe that Basketballholic has a better understanding of the deeper meaning of numbers than Morey does.
This shouldn't even be a discussion. Harden turns the ball over a lot. 5.5 is a lot. He needs to be closer to 4 turn overs a game rather than 6. That being said he is also already one of the best creators in the game, so I don't think his turnovers will be the downfall for the Rockets. Turn it over less, yes, but you can still live with his turn overs too.... except for one thing. I have one problem with Harden at the moment. He's been shooting poorly and he's been turning the ball over too much. You can do one, but you can't do both. He started off lighting the league on fire through the first 10 games. 49.7%/38.6%/84.4% on a wicked 65.0 true shooting percentage for 30 points!... these past 22 games: 41.2%/32.6%/83.3% with now an above average 58.3 shooting percentage for 26 points.... Yes, he's still more efficient than a guy like Westbrook, but our #1 guy can't be shooting that poorly AND turning the ball over nearly 6 times a game. I shrugged off his cold shooting streak, but he hasn't gotten better at all. He NEEDS to get back up to 45/37/85 on an elite 62 ts%. I trust he can get there, but he's shooting really poorly for a guy who is supposed to be ultra efficient. You can't be going 2-9 from 3 every night. That's what Harden needs to work on. He's bricking too many easy 3s. I don't have a problem with him taking 8 treys a game as long as he's making 3 of them. I wish Harden could go back to being one of the top 3 point shooters in the league. Watching him shoot so poorly gives me a sad. Please just give me back ultra-efficient-cant-leave-him-open James Harden and I'd be perfectly fine with these 6 turnover games.
Harden turns the ball over at least once a game with the full court pass into traffic. Get rid of that thing and he's down to 4.5 a game.
I watched a couple of minnys game and didnt quite see that. I saw helping off of him but not quite always leaving him wide open is there any video or stats showing this?
nah i dont want that, i want him relaxed and creative juices flowing , that would only stifled his creativity...its just 1 or 2 possessions a game and i would rather get that from other players(replacing brewer for example, ryan anderson hitting moree shots etc) instead of stifling and crippling harden
nice analysis i enjoyed... but cmon we are talking about 1 possession a game you dont stiffle the best player in the game because of 1 possession a game... you find a way to compensate for it somewhere else
Who said I wanted him stifled? I'm not on board the "we need a bad shooting all pass player to take the ball out of hardens hands" train.
That's a great post. It can't be undersold that harden has basically carried the rockets to the playoffs multiple times as the teams best player despite never having a great number two who took offensive pressure off of him.
I apologize for interpreting perhaps too much into your words but if you make his TOs into a problem then it will kinda stifle him because he would have to be more cautious and that equals less creative or more stifled... we can live with him squandering 1 additional possession per game
I want him to worry about the turnovers that come from silliness like letting s guy walk up behind him at the top of the key and just grab the ball because he isn't paying attention. I live with the ones that come from him trying to be "creative"
Possessions have more to do with Harden turning it over than brewer missing shots. Brewer simply does not take that many shots to account for two possessions. And brewer is a possession creator on the defensive end and glass (offensive rebounds, steals, charges drawn). He turns the opponent over more than he turns it over. That actually offsets a few of his missed shots. When you study our losses, we either lose because we get out-possessioned from a pile of turnovers or we let the opponent go off the chains defensively. Turnovers and defense is what is going to kill us in the playoffs. Yes we've had some bad shooting games from time to time but shooting does not account for our losses. It's turnovers and defense. Don't get me wrong. I'm not a Brewer fan. But this team needs defense and turnover minimization much more than it needs more space. If you remember, I was on Hardens case last year about turnovers. Posters here kept saying his turnovers would come down with better shooters and more space. I said that wasn't so. Harden's turnovers are due to his aggression, sloppiness, and his vision/creativity limitations as a distributor. Fast forward a year later and here we are. Unless Harden whittles down his turnover pile we are also-rans.
7 turnovers was the Phoenix game. That was the context. But 5.5 average is historically bad. It's way too many. And we're not even going up against the top defensive teams every night. The playoffs are a different animal. You're playing the same team until one of the teams wins 4 games. Playoff defenses are better. And playoff offenses are more consistent and efficient. And the game slows down. Yes, MDA is going to attempt to overcome that by forcing up-tempo play. But that's more difficult to do successfully when you are digging the ball out of the net more often and you can't turn over the opponent as often. It is then that our turnovers and porous defense are magnified. And it is then that you guys will inundate the board with thread after thread complaining about us not being able to stop people and Harden giving the opponent the basketball. But it will be too late then. What about Hardens points and assists? Hardens stats are being hindered because he wants the ball all the time. Go look at his pull up 3 point shooting percentage. I don't know what it is but it's cratering as we speak. Compare his pull up 3-point percentage to his catch-and-shoot 3-point percentage. No comparison. Efficient vs. Inefficient. Harden should be averaging about 30 points a game and 7 assists a game with 4 turnovers a game or less and an overall 40+% 3-point shooting percentage. He's more than capable of that type of efficiency. But to get there he's going to have to eliminate a pile of pull up 3 balls that he sucks at, he's going to have to give up the basketball more and then get it back for the 3 or the drive and finish/dish after another playmaker has offset the defense. Mike talked about this very thing before the season started. He knows what needs to be done here. I never said nor do I believe Harden hates playing with stars....or superstars. What I've said is Harden doesn't like playing without the basketball. Bro you are deceiving yourself if you think Harden doesn't mind playing off the ball. He's got the same attitude about it that TMac had about fitting in to Adelman's passing offense. He flat out doesn't want that. And I'm pointing out again right here, that's the difference between him and LeBron, Steph, and Kawhi. Those guys want rings enough to be truly objective about what maximizes winning for their teams. Harden is not there. He only wants to win when he's got the basketball in his hands. He does not believe his turnovers matter. Nor does he believe he should be slapping the floor on the defensive end because he believes what you believe, 27 and 12 cures all. Although I love Rubio and I firmly believe if you put Rubio on this team and gave him the basketball with James on the floor with him that we would be even more efficient and potent offensively, this is not about Rubio. This is about Harden being unwilling to give up primary playmaking responsibilities to anybody. Harden would make Chris Paul go stand on the wing if we somehow traded for CP3. So this isn't about Rubio. And I haven't brought Rubio up. This is about Harden and his game. He's inflexible. When we get into the playoffs.....U Will See.
Maybe. I'm very much in the pro Harden crowd and ultimately don't think his turnovers are as detrimental as the raw numbers say. But 5.5 a game is a lot no matter how you slice it and ill advised passes are a part of it. I should say, I don't want him to lose any of the creativity that makes him great, but as Worrell said the other day, a greater appreciation of possessions would make him that much better.
Since you obviously believe that James Harden is a lost cause loser, who should we trade him for to have a better shot at a ring? I'll wait......
