If you compare Quintana's rookie year with Musgroves rookie year there is some very similar stats. First Quintana had about double the innings but had a 2-1 strike out to walk ratio and a 1.35 whip. While Musgrove had more than a 3-1 strike out to walk ratio and a 1.21 whip. There eras are similar but Quintana's was in the upper 3s while Musgrove is 4.06. I honestly think if we trade Martes and Musgrove away for Quintana we would be regretting this in a year or two. Musgrove has excellent stuff. http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/stats/_/id/32106/jose-quintana http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/34848/joe-musgrove In the end you have to compare rookie years. You can't compare this year because Musgrove is still learning the craft while Quintana has already learned how to pitch. Will that mean Musgrove will develop as well as Quintana did? Unknown however the talent Musgrove has does indicate he easily could achieve a great baseball career. If you guys were in charge in the late 90s you would have traded away Wade Miller and Roy Oswalt. You guys the astros historically are very good and creating great pitchers out of our minors.
The vast majority of prospects began as..... draft picks. The Astros have 50+ selections in each of the next four drafts (the length of Quintana's contract) to find the next Tucker, Martes and/or Musgrove - assuming they're not already in the organization. As long as the Astros stay committed to building their pipeline, they can replenish prospects. What's harder is finding an ace with Quintana's credentials: proven track record; cheap contract; prime age. There are about 10, maybe 15 of those in all of baseball. 3 out of every 4 pitching prospects fail; 2 out of every hitting prospect fail. And there is value in getting 5+ WAR from a single player, as opposed to three. I understand the future projections and I've actually grown slightly more hesitant to do it (down from, "YES! Right now - what are you waiting for???") - I'm leaning toward Luhnow fighting to keep one of Martes or Tucker. BUT... I still think Quintana is being undervalued by a lot of fans. He's an elite arm and makes this a significantly better team.
Then trade Martes and Tucker and keep Musgrove. Or Musgrove and Tucker if you think Martes has better stuff. That way you keep a pitching talent while also getting one that is ready now. I believe getting Quintana means buying EE as well, so that means for Martes and Tucker and 70 mill, you can get EE and Quintana, and we could win this year. If not, we still have both of them, we still have Musgrove the following year, and we replace Beltran in FA (there are some above average ones coming) and do it all again.
I forgot we were moving immediately into a temporary home. What if he can't maintain his .661 slugging percentage from last year?
I'd 100% do the trade, even though it might be a slight overpay. The Astros will get their WAR now while ChiSox gets their a little later. The fact that Luhnow did not is a good open question. I am guessing that the Nerd Cave is projecting greatness for both Musgrove and Martes. I tend to discount heavily any projections for prospects who have not complete a full season of AA ball. To me, Tucker the Younger is a mystery.
A safer bet would be to pencil in his .402 SLG Tucker the Younger had in QC. Tucker is only 19 and has not filled out yet. The power will come. If he can maintain his bat speed, Tucker will have a good MLB run.
It's not about greatness; it's a short-term/long-term equation. Quintana was worth 5.2 WAR last year; theoretically, he will regress over the course of these next four years - it's unlikely, at 32, he'll still be a 5+ WAR pitcher (not impossible - these are all projections). Musgrove, in just 10 starts last year, produced .6 WAR - that's ~1.8 for a full season. Theoretically, he will PROgress over the next four seasons. Joining him at some point will be Martes and Tucker - who are both likely projected to be better than Musgrove. So even on a low end projection (they all settle in around 2 WAR each), they'll collectively be worth tens of millions more than a (likely) regressing Quintana. And then if one, or more, lives up to their potential, they could be, collectively, worth nearly $100MM. That's (likely) their mindset - they're reluctant to deal (potentially) sizable long-term value for short-term value.
I am guessing that José Quintana will produce 16 WAR over the next four years. He will probably produce between 3 to 5 WAR/year over the next four years. The ChiSox are certainly pricing all trades to the high end. Musgrove performance at the MLB is now more of a known quantity. The 1.8 WAR/year projection is fair. But the league will make adjustments next year, so Musgrove will have to get better to stay even, at least for next year. After next year, the projections do firm up. Musgrove will be a FA in 2013, so he will have six years of control going forward. The floor projects to be 2 WAR/year over 6 years to be 12 WAR. (Note that Musgrove might not even start the 2017 season in the MLB, given the number of starters in camp, those who are out of options. and the fact that he was never fully stretched out in the minors.) Francis Martes is projected to be ToR MLB pitcher. He did well in AA in 2106. I am guessing that Martes will pitch AAA in 2017 and MLB in 2018. If he dominates or struggles, the mileage may vary. Martes pitched 101.2 IPs in 2015 and 125.1 IPs in 2016, so he has not been fully stretched in the minor leagues. Projecting what Martes will do in the MLB pitching 200 IPs is an open question. The best case would be Quintana-esque performance, but you would expect two seasons to build to that: 2 WAR (2018), 3 WAR (2019), 4 WAR (2020), 5 WAR (2021), etc. Guessing that he can produce ~20 WAR before FA, but only have a 25% chance of hitting that mark. Maybe the expected case would be closer to 10 WAR. In a trade, Musgrove would give ~12 WAR and Martes ~10 WAR. This is an overpay for Quintana's projected 16 WAR. Looking at my questimation, Quintana produces ToR WAR through the Astros competitive window (now-2020). Musgrove produce MoR WAR through that window and Martes does as well, potentially reaching ToR WAR by the end. WRT Tucker the Younger, I just don't think that there is anymore than a 10% chance he becomes a MLB allstar. To me, he is a lottery ticket in this trade.
You're always going to have to overpay for proven MLB studs in terms of prospect value. It's like paying an interest fee for the present value you will be receiving.
I'm starting to lean with the just get Quintana. Don't care much for losing two of martes, k. Tucker and musgrove but all three is kinds hard. If the Astros do it so be it we now have our ace so eff it just do it
It's like trading a 80 rated player for three "potentially" 80 rated players who each have a 33% chance of getting to that level. Sure it seems like overpaying because you're potentially giving up three 80 rated players, but the value is right given present value.
I do think we need 2 pitchers though without EE. A #1 and a #2. So whatever the plan we need 2 pitchers going into 2018 one way or the other. Get one now, one next year, I'm good with that. but if at all possible keep the minor league pitchers, and trade the bats. It's obvious what we need. And what we don't need to win now.
I still don't think a move for a top flight starter won't happen until mid-season. Unless a great deal drops in their lap between now and the start of Spring Training, I wouldn't expect to see any other major roster movement until the season gets going and they see which Keuchel, McHugh, and McCullers they have.
