This is spot on. This is a weak free agent pitching year but the last 3 years have not been. i wanted and ace starting with Scherzer and how good would this team be right now if we had signed one of them?
Did they change control in the new CBA? Because it was 6 years (3 years minimum salary, 3 years arbitration). Sure seems like he will be permanently in the bullpen. Obviously they don't trust in Feliz's changeup.
To be fair, Scherzer entered free agency when the Astros future was still a big question mark. Remember that they were a year ahead of schedule, and when Scherzer came on the market, we had no idea that Keuchel was about to start a Cy Young winning campaign. I will agree that since then, they could have spent a little more and addressed the TOR, but with Scherzer in particular, the financials wouldn't have made sense at that juncture in our development.
I think the opposite. It was exactly the right time to sign a TOR starter: 1. Payroll at the time was extremely low; they could afford it easily 2. The contract would expire right at the time the star internal options are hitting FA so it doesn't hamstring the budget. 3. You have 5 pitchers so Scherzer would block no one. Basically he would replace a Fiers, Feldman, etc type. 4. Presumably on Luhnow's 7 page plan he expected to be competing for playoffs/WS in 2016; Scherzer should have been expected to be excellent last year and he was 5. Due to how bad we were at the time the comp pick would be sandwich or second round.
Quintana is not a #2 - he's among the 8-10 best pitchers in baseball; he's a #1 on 2/3 of the teams in baseball. Fans need to stop underrating Quintana. He's a legit ace.
It isn't just fans. There are teams that feel the same way. The GM of the Braves came right out and said they did not value Quintana like they valued Chris Sale. Quintana hasn't had any outrageously sensational, Cy Young type seasons, but he makes up for that with incredible consistency.
I disagree with this; he's dealt a number of prospects (they've only been in the buy, as opposed to sell, business two years now) including one of his first overall picks. As someone else pointed out, it's not any of the individual players that likely has him spooked; its' the combination of these three in particular having the potential to eventually swallow Quintana's current value that likely has his spooked.
I wish the White Sox were one of them... The numbers are incredibly similar and Quintana's consistency - I mean, 33, 32, 32, 32 starts the last four years, with his WAR increasing each of the past three... he's a stud.
His fastball and slider appeared to play better out of the bullpen then as a starter. The development of his changeup will help dictate his longterm role. They probably do believe he could be a starter, but with a Bud Norris type ceiling.
What makes you think a TOR starter entering his prime like Scherzer wanted to sign with a 70-92 Astros team that had been terrible for several years as opposed to a division leading team? The only way a TOR starter was coming here pre-2015 was if the Astros way overpaid. And going into 2016, the rotation was not the top priority. The failure/fade of the Astros in 2015 was due to an extremely inconsistent offense and a bullpen that was imploding. They made substantial progress in both of those issues, but the rotation unexpectedly fell apart. In terms of prospects like Martes, it's funny to see how Bregman is now 100% untouchable, but a year ago, he would have been the Martes in a trade. The Astros were in the same position last year as this year - a team on the verge of contention. Many people here were livid that they traded Mark Appel for an ace reliever. How would they have felt if they traded Bregman for an ace at the time, and why is it so much different this year?
He is not a top ten pitcher in baseball, last year was his best year yet, and stat wise he wouldn't even be top 4 on the Cubs. I agree some may be undervaluing but this is way overvaluing him. Ill give him credit for him always being consistent but nothing screams out ace. Stupid JA Happ even outpitched him last year. I think if Luhnow agreed he was top 10 pitcher in baseball he would have pulled the trigger already
I think, given his much higher profile, Bregman was, at least from fans' perspective, off-limits last year, too. Plus, most fans recognize that pitching prospects (*especially* young pitching prospects) are far more volatile than position players. We all watched three sure-fire aces (Hernandez, Redding, Oswalt) slowly dwindle to one in the early 00s.
Among all MLB pitchers with at least 700 IP since 2013, he ranks 7th in WAR; 13th in ERA+ and 14th in ERA. OK; so maybe not top 10 - but he's top 15, for sure. That's an ace. In ERA - but those Cubs pitchers are in the NL; Quintana's in the AL. Only Lester had a higher WAR last year (Quintana was 11th in MLB), and even then - minimally (5.3 to 5.2). His ERA+ was better than Lackey's. Quintana had a higher WAR and their ERA difference was so slight (3.18 v 3.20), it's barely worth mentioning. I wouldn't classify that as having been "outpitched." Again, Qunitana is being severely underrated.
Fair enough on attractiveness as a destination. In Scherzer case just offer the same contract with no deferral, but as Andrew Miller showed its not always just the highest bidder. I have no reason to believe from reporting in the time that the Astros even tried though.
Fans were not livid over Mark Appel being traded. They were simply upset that he didn't live up to the draft pick. If anything, he's a reminder as to the constant unpredictability of prospects....and how sometimes they are far more valuable as trade pieces than they'll ever be as a big league player.
Certainly true. But we also watched guys like Daryle Ward and Jason Lane flop (and more recently, Jon Singleton and maybe AJ Reed, though that's obviously way too early). Position players flop quite a bit too, though I have no stats as to whether it happens more or less than pitchers. I suspect you're right that pitching prospects are more volatile (as are pitchers in general), but one nice thing about pitchers is that some of those flops can at least turn into decent-to-good relief pitchers.
There were plenty of people here that were upset about that trade and thought we gave up too much - some of it was VV, but some of it was Appel too 100% agree. People tend to look just the upside of prospects, but never the downside.
