Astros to pursue Edwin Encarnacion

84 wins puts us 9th in the AL. All this talk about the exciting 84 wins is silly. There were only 6 teams worse than we were. That equates to an average or below average season. Which means one of 2 things. The lineup was was so good that it was supporting a below average staff to get us to average. Or the lineup we had wasn't even that much better than the average staff we did have. Neither is good. The last two months with all the added talent was .500 with regression in September. In the offseason we have barely replaced the production we lost in Valbuena. They are slight upgrades. I'm glad they did it. But the lineup is only slightly improved. And the pitching staff remains the same. The only way to make a push toward a title is to sign a top tier player on the offensive side or a #1 pitcher. This team is a midlevel band facing it own limitations in the harsh face of stardom. They are almost famous, but need something big to get them to the next level.

 

Not sure why I bother.

The Astros were dead last in OPS at DH, CF and LF. Aoki was about .070 better than Astros left fielders. Reddick was .125 better than the Astros center fielders and almost .200 better if you just count his AL numbers. (I know Reddick won't be in CF, but he will most likely play RF and Springer play CF). Beltran had a .850 OPS which dwarfs the Astros DH production as well as their LF production. They already "replaced" Valbuena's production with Bregman. They were also next to last in 1B production. Gurriel should easily improve that.

So, only slightly improved is incredibly disingenuous.

 

I started a similar reply and deleted it. Not worth it. Let's go ahead and enjoy the off season regardless of odd and undignified posts.

 

You're approaching bballholic levels of both wrongness and stubbornness about this.

 

Also, the .500 mark around the last two months might have something to do with our two best pitchers starting only a combined 5 games during September/August.


Anyways, back on topic...I think if the stros get quintana then they need to offer encarnacion a 3 year 60-70 million offer. his salary would then come off the books when it's time for the Astros to start retaining the young core.

Also, I hope the astros can workout an extensiom/raise for altuve. he deserves it. A MVP caliber player who has been around the team during the dark times.

 

Well the Astros are going to give u a chance to prove your point that the team as it stands can win the world series, as of right now the only pieces they are willing to move are McHugh and Fiers and their Hondas. We might get a washing machine in return. While everyone else is loading up with nuclear weapons or already have them. We can revisit after we get sideswiped in the playoffs to see who was right.

 

We are talking this year. Are you in the wrong timeline? If anything, those moves just prove the point, we need to think bigger than Gomez and Cashmeer because that just went south.

 

The OPS is all fine and dandy until u look at the Clutch OPS, where the Astros continually rank dead last. Even in medium leverage Clutch situations we were 19th. It costs us almost 10 wins every year. We are a -14. So I think the real question is do Reddick, McCann and Beltran improve on leverage situations enough to win a title. All of them are in the negative, where at least Valbuena was in the positive as an example, as is Encarnacion.

 

Link?

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/here-are-some-of-the-astros-missing-wins/

 

swap "clutch" out for situational hitting then.

 

So, what factors into "clutch"? How do you look at a player's offensive stats and determine what "clutch" is? For example, Beltran had an OPS of .718 in "runners in scoring position and 2 out" situations. Now it is possible that all or none of those situations were "clutch". If a team is winning by 5 runs in the bottom of the 8th, is it really "clutch" to fail or succeed at that time? Is it "clutch" to fail or succeed in the second inning? If a player hits solo HRs in his first 3 at bats and then strikes out with the tying and winning runs on base in the bottom of the 9th, has he failed?

Here is what I (and the vast majority of the posters in this forum) know. The Astros were miserable in overall OPS at 3 positions last year. On paper, they have improved greatly at those 3 positions. Odds are, if you improve your overall OPS, then statistically you will improve your "clutch" OPS.

 

First off, it's not 10 wins a year - it was 10 wins over 2 years. Second, the guy who writes the article admits he can't explain it and tends to believe it's random. How do you identify players that fix the problem you're suggesting, especially if you don't know what causes the problem or how even how to measure it?

 

It's not random or luck when it's a trend, the writer points that out, hey guys, look at this! The Astros keep finishing dead last in this win/share stat and here's a reason why they can't keep up with the Rangers. That's Analytics. It does a good job of explaining why the Rangers are 10 games better, because frankly, they are like +12 to our -14. That's the gap in the standings. It's not really OPS, it's Clutch OPS that explains the difference in the two teams. He goes on to write an article about the Cardinals are consistently out OPS'd, but always have historically the best clutch rate to explain their success. Clutch players are identified on the site. For example, Correa is a +1. Encarnacion is +.5. It's easy. I'd pick those players with a high ops and a consistently positive clutch rate to close the gap. All our pickups are on the negative side. Generally speaking, the guys to pick up are elite players consistently on the plus side. Encarnacion is on the plus side. Unfortunately for the Astros, looks like only Correa has shown any real positive situational hitting. And I think if you just used the eye test last year and didn't even look at the analytics, we all felt it last year down the stretch and in the Rangers series. I mean one can go with the Bull Durham outlook which all of baseball is just luck and random, and seeing eye singles, or go the money ball route and try to solve the problems.