I bet he takes a deal similar to Cespedes last offseason (3y/75MM with a player opt-out clause). Then, he has the opportunity to opt out and try to get that 4th year next offseason. The CBA kind of screwed up his value this offseason.
We have to consider this: Astros execs say there is 'no chance' we trade Bregman. If that's the case, signing EE would only mean one thing--Gattis would become a pure backup. Would the value of adding EE to our lineup as our DH really improve our team enough to justify signing him to an expensive long-term contract? 2016 Gattis BA .251 OBP .319 SLG .508 OPS .826 WAR 3.0 2016 EE BA .263 OBP .357 SLG .529 OPS .886 WAR 3.7 There is no question that EE is an upgrade over Gattis, but is it enough of an upgrade to justify spending 90 million on him? I think this is what Astros execs look at to make this type of decision.
Houston better go get Sale, this has just become an arms race and Washington is going to win. They get 'em and it's over for everyone else. Giolito has more less been as bad as Reed. The Sox are getting winked. We can give them more. Our lineup should be off the table. But the prospects can go in a firesale.
As awesome as it'd be to have him here next season, I think we should follow suit. No El Caballo type deals anymore.
If he decides to sign a deal with an opt out after Year 1, then I hope the Astros make a very, very strong bid for his services. People keep saying this, but Lee was VERY productive for the first 2/3 of his deal here. If you had put him into this lineup right now, he would have mashed at DH. If Beltran does what Lee did when he was an Astro, we're going to be incredibly formidable.
I'm good with 1 year, maybe 2... for someone as special as EE, maybe even 3. 4 and 5 year deals I would love to avoid.
Now that Sale is safely in Boston, not Washington, Let's go get 'em. I don't care what the deal is, sign 'em otherwise while the lineup will be improved, we will have failed to add a game changer. Still see us as fringe playoff team without at least one additional bomber/ace. We've got to overcome this average staff, and we've got to be able to slam the Kershaw's, Klubers, Sales, and Arrieta's of the world.
My question is do the Nationals reopen discussions with the Pirates, and weaken their prospects available in trade for another starter?
I wonder if EE was actually close to a deal when it was reported last week, and then decided to wait and see if he got better offers. In the meantime the teams waiting on him moved on. If that is the case he may have costed himself a strong deal this winter (although as others have mentioned he can always press the reset button for next year). If he does go that route he risks potentially having a down year and costing himself even more in the long run. Offer 3 years at 65M with a player option after year 1.
But the Astros would lose all the leverage with the player opt out. If he were to opt out and sign elsewhere after his first year here, then we just paid EE about $20-$25M plus our 1st round draft pick for 1 year. I don't think our front office would go for that. I sure wouldn't.
You probably said the same thing after the Nationals acquired Scherzer... Chris Sale has made as many postseason starts as I have. You don't win pennants in December; everyone needs to relax.
I'm incredibly happy with the off-season that the Astros have had so far, but it would still suck pretty hard if the Red Sox and Indians both get stronger relative to our team. As of right now, the Astros would win the West, but probably lose out to both Boston and Cleveland in the playoffs. However, it's a long off-season, and a lot of chips still have yet to fall.
