I think you have to compare the 9 guys who got the most PA last season to the 9 who project to get the most next season. Doing that looks like this: OF Springer = Springer 2B Altuve = Altuve SS Correa = Correa 1B Gonzalez < Gurriel DH Gattis = Gattis OF Rasmus < Reddick C Castro < McCann 3B Valbuena < Bregman OF Gomez < Beltran
I think expecting Bregman to exceed Valbuena's production is a stretch. Not to say Bregman isn't a better option moving forward, but Valbuena was basically having an all-star caliber season (After being so awful in April).
The argument is that, for whatever reason, the past 2 full seasons prove that Gattis is FAR more valuable as a hitter when he also catches As a full-time DH, he is basically just replacement-level Yet, because of his injury history and DEF shortcomings, he is not well-suited to be a full-time Catcher, and he cannot effectively play the field at any other position Gattis is a really, really good #2 Catcher ... nothing more Having him backup/platoon w McCann is an ideal scenario for both players, and for the team 2015 - All DH 0.5 WAR total 0.6 oWAR 566 AB .246 BA .748 OPS 27 HR 88 RBI 2016 - At C vs At DH 3.0 WAR total 2.8 oWAR 190 v 251 AB .295 v .219 BA .992 v .709 OPS 19 v 13 HR 41 v 31 RBI Career - At C vs At DH 681 v 794 AB .266 v .238 BA .855 v .728 OPS 49 v 38 HR 118 v 112 RBI Beltran should now be our full-time DH Yuli will play 150 games ... mostly at 1B unless Reed explodes, or at 3B if Bregman is moved Springer becomes everyday CF Reddick in RF except against tough Lefties, when Jake plays Aoki & Jake share LF early, until Fisher gets a shot around AS break
That has a lot to do with defense. Valbuena hit .280/.374/.513 from May-July. I think Bregman will have a hard time exceeding that.
I think he'll do something like that but over 150 games. I loved Valbuena last year and him getting hurt really hamstrung the team.
Do you think that Valbuena would have kept up that pace over the course of the season? What were Bregman's splits after his comically bad start?
Valbuena had also never produced like that before. It was an unsustainable tear when you look at his career numbers. Bregman has the ability to have a consistent .850 OPS and sooner rather than later.
Ironically, his season was ended by a tear.... goes hand-in-hand with the unsustainability of it all. That being said, sometimes guys just have career years.... especially around this age. That could have been his, and it certainly could have propelled this team to a much better finish. At the time of him getting hurt, they were within striking distance of the division. They went on a tailspin soon after, and finally got things stabilized again once Bregman (and then Gurriel) started hitting.
Since I don't want to do too much computing... Bregman was 1-22 in July. In August, he slashed .274/.333./479/.812 which included starting the month 0-12. He slashed .323/.344/.629/.973 in September. EDIT: After the 1-34 start, He hit .311, slugged around .521 and his OPS was around .925.
I think he would have maintained close to a .250/.350/.500 slash line, but no way of knowing. I think he had figured it out and it would have been a career year. I definitely think he would have maintained an .800 OPS. Depends on your exact start point, but over .900 OPS. I think that would be optimistic though. Was it really unsustainable? Probably more sustainable than you would think. His June was carried by an unrealistic BABIP, but otherwise, his numbers were pretty reasonable. And sustainability doesn't really matter, since we are talking about improvement over what happened last year. Those numbers are in the books.
