I disagree that Ariza >>> Bev in 15-16. He has been great so far this year. At any rate this is a boring conversation. I don't even think we are arguing the main point, just the quality of the data needed to support said point.
He has no market value because he is Trevor Ariza... he is old and on a decent contract but he's not a guy who's going to put any team over the top. No rebuilding team has need of an old solid player stealing minutes from young guys, and contending teams aren't an Ariza-away from a ship. That doesn't mean he isn't a valuable player. His advanced stats are great this year and he is a great cog for us on both sides of the court. He has good chemistry with Harden, plays defense, offers some veteran leadership, and is on a good contract in this inflated market. I don't see how you consider Beverley more valuable in any way other than the fact that he is younger.
I don't think you understand what you just read. Harden's beard, This is my professional. I'm head developer of a statistical modeling software tool for scientists and corporations. I'm paid to know that article you linked in your post. I can assure you with a great deal of confidence that this data set is classic for outlier identification and analysis. That's what I did for you. I don't know why you're being pissy about me having fun with your challenge. It was fun to play with nba.com new query interface and check how they are calculating Pace (with which I still don't agree, but that's for another topic). Been looking for an excuse to play around. All I did was found two extreme hi/lo outliers and removed them to see the numbers, and then put them back in to see the numbers. Not just scientists, but sports statisticians do this for outliers in early season Pythagorean Expectation outliers for W/Ls (Sabermetrics), too. Spoiler: Sabermetrics note Blowouts where teams give up are a hot topic. Similar is end of season losses. This isn't just pure science like your link addresses. Anomalies from human behavior, luck and strategy come into play in sports. Sorry, I couldn't find a layman's explanation of statistics behind this. But admit, you wouldn't have read it anyhow. On my extreme hi/lo outlier analysis, I see no pattern or trend. You still do, because you see what you are looking for. That's called Clustering Illusion. btw: the Bev era of the season also goes down when we apply Adjusted DRtg for opponent strength Which reminds me: Don't forget GSW has an 118.6 ORtg at Home. So our 107.5 DRtg is likely going up more tonight, just based on pure statistics...not Beverley
Yawn, refute this or go home All you've done is make a fool out of yourself by exposing your confirmation bias (Beverley MUST be a good defender no matter what, ergo let's look for all the esoteric reasons why our defense sucks with him being in the starting line-up.) As I have clearly pointed out, you don't get to pick and choose which data point to include or exclude at this juncture in time, because we are still in the mid-season and have no idea what a true outlier game looks like. And no, just because it is an outlier, that doesn't mean you get to discard it at your convenience, unless it's an outright error. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outlier#Exclusion Deletion of outlier data is a controversial practice frowned upon by many scientists and science instructors; while mathematical criteria provide an objective and quantitative method for data rejection, they do not make the practice more scientifically or methodologically sound, especially in small sets or where a normal distribution cannot be assumed. Rejection of outliers is more acceptable in areas of practice where the underlying model of the process being measured and the usual distribution of measurement error are confidently known. An outlier resulting from an instrument reading error may be excluded but it is desirable that the reading is at least verified. http://www.theanalysisfactor.com/outliers-to-drop-or-not-to-drop/ Despite all this, as much as you’d like to, it is NOT acceptable to drop an observation just because it is an outlier. They can be legitimate observations and are sometimes the most interesting ones. It’s important to investigate the nature of the outlier before deciding. So in the end, it all comes down to this : Pre-Beverley return (11 games) : 105.4 DRtg Post-Beverley return (7 games) : 110.9 DRtg
What Beverley does on defense doesn't show up on the stat sheet. If Shane Battier and Pras from the Fugees conceived a child, it would be named Patrick Beverley
And a +21 somehow in the tight Golden State game We know every position on the team besides Harden can get upgraded. As long as he's an overall POSITIVE contributor worth his contract, what's it matter if his D is average or stellar as long as it works out
I am telling you Bev has an account on Clutchfans and read this shitty thread. It was the kick he needed. Now he is showing us what made him a one time ALL star Taco Bell Pollo Loco skills contest champion. All that heart and hustle
I never claimed that, but it's hard to deny that Beverley made a great impact tonight and he hounded Curry well when he was on the floor. Some of the ticky tack fouls he picked up are part of the reason people here think he's overrated - his aggression can be counter-productive - but the comments here that he is worthless and garbage and we are worse for having him are idiotic.
everyone played good defense last night, not just Beverley. Hope this trend continues into the future.
