For those interested in Rule 5, a nice fangraphs article on KATOH projections of eligible players: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/katohs-guide-to-the-2016-rule-5-draft/ Hauschild shows up as the top projected RHP, and Heineman is the top catcher.
Continuing the Fangraphs is an awesome resource theme (just signed up for the Fangraphs membership today myself) Fangraphs Editor Dave Cameron had this to say about Chris Sale and Chris Archer in his chat today: Interesting perspective. I don't think I've ever seen someone say more team control is any but a plus. But his logic is solid.
Love Fangraphs. I don't see him saying the additional control isn't a plus here. Just that it's not enough of a plus to overcome the vast difference between them, given that pitchers tend to have durability issues over time. I mean, I bet he'd take Sale at 3 years vs. Archer at 3, 4, 5, 6, or 7. But I'd imagine he'd take Archer for 5 over, say, Sonny Gray for 3 (or someone else who has similar age/star potential/some downside profile). I'm a bit surprised they took this question--do you think anyone would answer differently?
I agree with your interpretation too. My point is that he's saying Sale is still more valuable (i.e. is worth trading more for) than Archer despite the latter's additional years. That probably isn't the position of the Rays or even what Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs said two weeks ago.
I think he would say more team control is generally a plus for years with expected surplus value, but those extra years for a pitcher shouldn't be valued at full price due to severe risk. For the price that Sale or Archer would cost, I think the buyer, likely a contender, would go with the better pitcher now that has less risk even if Archer is projected to have more long term value. Just too much risk for a lot of teams to invest in one pitcher.
95 95+ projected wins already. Wow. If the AstrAstrois add CB and another so, they might projected the AsyroasAstros with a 100 wins. Whoa .
The #Dbacks have acquired pitcher Taijuan Walker and infielder Ketel Marte from the Mariners for Jean Segura, Mitch Haniger and Zac Curtis.
Interesting trade. Not as crazy as I thought initially. Really feeling kinda even now. I don't think Segura is great and do think he's due for significant regression--but he is still a big upgrade at SS for the M's. Taijuan hasn't lived up to his potential, and I think his name carries more weight than is play at this point. Haniger is non-zero and looks like he'll contribute, and Curtis could be a great live arm in the pen. Overall, seems like the Mariners may have improved themselves just by getting more balanced without a significant decline in their rotation (assuming they replace Walker with someone a little above league average). Not ideal for the Astros, but I like win-win deals
I wonder if we've had any talks w/ ARI re: Goldschmidt. ESPN has a piece on how he's one of four surprising players who could be moved...and listed HOU as a possibility. Springer Bregman Altuve Goldschmidt Correa Yuli DH McCann/Gattis Jake Filthy.
He makes more sense to me than Sale. Less chance he gets hurt or has a serious drop in productivity. Also less chance of a bidding war that will cause whatever team that gets him from overpaying.....though still an extreme longshot.
how do you figure less chance of a bidding war? I think there will be just as many suitors for Goldschmidt as Sale, or Stanton, etc. Aside from the Cubs and the Reds, I don't think anyone would consider themselves out of the hunt if he was on the block
With premium pitching value currently at its highest I think a package deal of Martes, Musgrove/McCullers, Paulino, AJ Reed would do the trick.
