What's more annoying (to me) is some fans' analysis of certain players salaries and automatically discrediting or no longer considering any post-arbitration player as viable options (unless you're getting them at a significantly reduced rate). First of all, if the team wants to pay them... let them pay them (especially in an uncapped league). Secondly, no team is going to win it all with an entirely home-grown product, mixed with discount reclamation projects. Sure, you can be competitive... and very entertaining... but they'll remain a long-shot and an extreme outlier of what not only typically wins, but what usually has some staying power to be a perennial contender.
Well it looks like you can scratch Hellickson off the list. He is reportedly going to accept the qualifying offer from the Phillies.
Of course the process must be analyzed. Correa, Altuve, Springer, Keutchel, etc. are due huge raises very soon. You trade for salary, then in 2 years you can't keep your core guys. And you lost your prospects and your current guy(s) for a 200 million salary guy. You have to juggle the now and the future. You could go all in, but if all in doesn't yield a title, we are back at the caboose of the league. Patience is only good when you are biding your time, not just being lazy. I think Astros are looking for the right deal. If you are going to trade assets, then you've got to get back what you are looking for.
Ah, had a feeling there was something off about that. Still, currently we are projected to have the 8th best rotation in baseball, and thats not even accounting for the fact that Paulino/Martes/Devenski could potentially be improvements over Fiers. I'd definitely be down to go after another ace, but I'd rather take a chance on a Rich Hill than sell the farm for someone else.
I'd be ok with that, but would still prefer to not dig too deep into the farm system. Astros have an interesting dilemma though, as many players who are considered their top prospects are quiet a while away from making the MLB roster.
This really got me to thinking... going into 2018, we will roughly $60mil (baseball reference, but I am unsure if they include Gurriel) on the books if you include arb numbers and money owed to players with Gregerson being the only player on today's roster not included. That includes picking up $6mil option on Altuve... which could easily be counter balanced by finding someone to take everyone's favorite lefty Sipp off of our books for the same price (crazy to think). Why are we not looking to "sell the farm" to have an ace on a team that barely missed the playoffs this year with their SP1 having a terrible year with a good chance to bounce back, an SP2 that was injured and no guarantee to stay in the rotation due to health, and a healthy batch of contenders for SP4-5? I want young Tucker to be on this team... but I want a ring, damnit. I would rather play with the guys we have now with an added ace then guessing where our health is in a few years. Why would we not sign an inflated contract for 4-5 years for an offensive player that we would be overpaying late in his career so that we can finally not have a hole at 1B/DH? Why not go after a Melancon type that would help bolster a bullpen that has potential to be great with a mentally capable Giles and Harris? We can afford to oversign a couple of guys right now and be set to compete for the next 2-3 years with our best foot forward. Nothing is a lock in this game, and I want to see these guys take over the AL starting next year with a full year of Gurriel and Bregman along side an Encarnacion. I want to see an Archer come in and make it a competition for SP1. Why the rant? I am checking this thread daily. I want to see that big name come across. I want to see this 84 win team make a 10 win swing through some added offense and pitching and run differential luck to compete in October. We can win in this AL and we can do it now. Why waste the opportunity we have for a chance to see a super team in 2021? Win. Now.
Looking at Fangraphs projections, the team is still 2 star level players away from being on par with what the Cubs produced this season. Good news is that their pitching staff, as-is, projects for ~20 WAR, which should be in the top 5 in baseball. Their offense is above average but has pretty glaring holes at CF, DH/1B/LF (depending on where you slot Gurriel), and C. Projections don't think very highly of Aoki, White, Reed, or Stassi.
Aoki is a proven MLB player? Their projections have Aoki having a down year against the rest of his career. I'm assuming because of his age, but hasn't really slowed him down yet. White & Reed are projected to be better than last season, but it would be hard to guess they go from terrible/replacement level to starters or better overnight.
Man I don't see anyway the currently constructed pitching staff is capable of being a top 5 staff. There's way too much volatility/inconsistency at the top of the rotation.
Conceptually I get your point, but my guess is that teams that expect to make the post-season are more stable at the top than we are. -Certainly the Cubs will go into next season with an incredibly strong trio of Arrieta, Lester and Hendricks. -The Rangers have Hamels and Darvish; both of whom had good years last year. The worst you could say is that Darvish only pitched 140 IP, but that's still 75% more than McCuller's 80 IP. -Kershaw and anyone with a pulse is more sound than McCullers/Keuchel. The Astros rotation strikes me more like Oakland or Tampa. If the #1 pitches up to talent level then the team has a chance at the post-season. I just don't think they have a reason expectation of being a post-season team OR top 5 pitching staff as currently constructed.
Texas has Hamels and Darvish and their staff is still in the bottom half of baseball. It is more important in there regular season to have quality depth that can eat innings and keep you in the game. It is the postseason where you need a workhorse or two to win.
